6/12 Moofest - Page 2 - Small Stakes Poker Forum

ChocolateMoo · 08-08-2012, 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KitCloudkicker

you forgot scenario "C" (most common). we limp 88, flop K72, checked to a guy we know nothing about (because this is live 4/8 and people always come and go). he bets, we are lost, and no decision seems to be the right one.

as you suggested, the easiest way to play 88 is limp, hope for an overpair or set, and otherwise fold if anyone but a maniac bets. you'll be throwing away a lot of winning hands that way, however.

as a rule of thumb its probably better to spend an extra bet or two and be wrong 60% of the time than it is to throw away winning hands in big pots. it very likely is not a coincidence that my downswings happen whenever i insist on showing down a winning hand.

There's some of this I agree with and some that I don't. But more fundamentally, my belief is that whether to raise 88 on the BTN after 4 limpers is a function of how my opponents play. (It seems that yours, OTOH, is to raise 100% of the time; is this correct?). I'm more inclined to limp if many of my opponents get to the river regardless; I think I can induce a greater FTOPs mistake this way. If my opponents play too much fit/fold, the blinds are tight, players are very passive/loose, etc. I'm very happy raising 88 and taking free-cards/betting turn to check river/value-betting thin/etc.

Not saying I'm right either; would be interested in generating more discussion.

JoeSixPutt · 08-08-2012, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo

I stoved it. We need 14.3% equity to raise profitably. Giving the 4 limpers ~50% of hands (removing the top big pairs and AK/AQ) and the blinds ~70%, I get:

Hand: Equity:
AK 22.8%
AQ 21.0%
AJ 19.5%
AT 17.8%
KQ 20.7%
KJ 18.7%
K8s 16.8%
K9s 18.6%
T9s 16.8%
A4s 17.7%
88 18.0%
99 20.7%

My comments: I went through a couple of months raising all of these in late position (minus the AT/KJ in very multiway pots). Aside from huge variance swings (which, admittedly, negatively affects mental fortitude and positively affects table dynamics), here were some of my observations as to the arguments against raising some of these hands preflop:

(All comments welcome)

1. People try to adjust - I abused the free-card play a lot, and people start donking and c/raising flops with all kinds of things. I found myself not realizing my hand's true equity, which in essence meant I was cutting down the IO of my speculative hands. Also, people start limp-reraising with big pp's, which means we end up putting our money in poorly an increased % of the time.

2. Bigger pots are not necessarily more profitable - this one is a tough one to quantify. It's really an expectation problem. But playing something like 22 for 4 bets in a 6 way pot is not *AS* profitable as playing it for 1. Raising preflop with small pp's in position in very multiway pots is profitable only if we can presuppose that we can get the flop checked through the times we miss often enough. The same goes for our A4s/T9s/etc. It's table specific.

3. Leveraging position - the beauty of position is being able to capitalize on preceding information. When we limp A4s in position and flop A72, we happily fold if there's a bet and a raise. If someone bets in EP, we can play WA/WB and just call down in position; if someone improves to two pair/straight, we often get to fold as we get to see the raise occur first. We somewhat lose this benefit when we raise in position; other people start check-calling their top pairs, or slowplaying, etc.

Here's another example:
4 people limp, we raise 88, 7 to the flop. K72. Checked to us, we bet, 3 people call. Barring an 8, the turn is rather tricky to play. Because of the bigger pot, we expect some QJ/AT type hands peeling. There are some worse hands, but there should also be a great deal of Kx hands in the bunch.

Contrast, we limp 88 on the BTN after 4 limpers and take a flop of K72. EP bets out. Barring us having a read that he's a maniac, this is a very easy fold. Now if it's checked to Mr. Aggro in the CO who bets, we happily raise. Now our opponents, holding QJ/AT, are making a mistake to call the two bets.

Food for Thought:
Not raising AJ preflop is giving up 5% of the 6 sb others would've put in. That's an expectation of .3 sb. Is that a lot? How does this situation compare to the TT hand in SSHE, where we wait for a later street when our equity changes drastically?

Should we raise K8s here to capitalize on the .156 sb expectation? Why or why not? Where's the cutoff?

I am surprised that KQ is doing so well in your stove with top hands removed from limpers,better than AJ even. It is also interesting that KJ is doing about as well as AJ.

As far as your comments about position/leverage being better after limping, in my experience JT on a J94 board is just as likely to donk out as he is to do anything else, so you can still charge drraws maximum/ defend your hand even with the raise pf. Giving free look to the blinds cant be good for you either.

Additionally by making big pots pf with equity advantage you help to negate the rake, which is still a pretty huge consideration at 6/12 and 8/16 imo.

callipygian · 08-09-2012, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MApoker

Bottom line is that 6-12 players' most common and probably worst mistake is calling with bad hands preflop.

Only half of this is true: it IS the most common mistake. But in loose games, the mistakes are not as large as failing to value bet on the big streets, or making retarded big streetbluffs, which are almost certainly the worst mistakes.

Quote:

With a lot of callers, I will even re-raise with a hand like AJ, unless the first raise was put in by a strong/tight player.

If you're 3-betting AJo when the average player raises, this is a bigger mistake than open-limping QJo (which may not even be a mistake).

That being said, not raising AJo here is a mistake too. So what if you take 4-card flops a lot and people start donking into you and spaz-raise you? People donking into you is a good thing; people spaz-raising you is a good thing.

Raise it pre and then turbofold the flop. One of these times you'll have a hand and when someone donks bp and someone else spaz-raises middle pair, you 3-bet with glee, and then b/f the turn and river to collect your bonus 4 BB.

As for what else to raise pre, K8s is defensable. I'm snap-raising KTs and probably K9s. I'm also raising suited connectors down to 76s, and I won't pretend that a 43s hasn't occasionally found its way in there at some point. Or, um, T3s.

Offsuit I'm a lot tighter, ATo is probably borderline. Depends on how many of the limpers limp AJo+ (AXo gets dominated a whole lot IME).

MApoker · 08-09-2012, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by callipygian

If you're 3-betting AJo when the average player raises, this is a bigger mistake than open-limping QJo (which may not even be a mistake).

I'm talking about when I've got a lot of callers (e.g. 5+), and strictly in 6/12 or less. I don't think it's a mistake because so many callers will have worse hands that it will make up for my having second-best hand preflop.

Also, I think I've learned something about how to play postflop and knowing when I'm dominated. Maybe for a lot of players, it's too much variance.

MApoker · 08-10-2012, 12:01 AM

^^^ Adding: What you're really hoping for here is to pick up a big hand, particularly the big straight. Sure, it doesn't happen often, but when you do, the pot is usually ginormous. And it will happen more often than you might expect, because you've often got pot odds to go for the inside straight.

The key here is to only do it when you've got a lot of callers -- that way, you're not bloating the pot with your own money, you're bloating it with theirs.

ChocolateMoo · 08-10-2012, 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by callipygian

That being said, not raising AJo here is a mistake too. So what if you take 4-card flops a lot and people start donking into you and spaz-raise you? People donking into you is a good thing; people spaz-raising you is a good thing.

...

As for what else to raise pre, K8s is defensable. I'm snap-raising KTs and probably K9s. I'm also raising suited connectors down to 76s, and I won't pretend that a 43s hasn't occasionally found its way in there at some point. Or, um, T3s.

I agree with you on the fact that we collect the times our opponents spaz with worse, but the crux of this thread that I am exploring is finding the balance point for hands that benefit more from overlimping than from raising. I keep referring to the TT hand from SSHE, and I feel like nobody's addressed this idea. I'm going to paraphrase it here:

"4 limpers, we raise TT, blinds call. Flop: 765. Player to your direct right bets into you. You should just call."

SSHE's argument is that we can force our opponents to make a bigger FTOP's mistake on a later street, which is *MORE PROFITABLE*.

So how do we tell? What if I had QQ instead of TT, etc etc. I have no way to justfiy my raising range, but this is what I think is roughly most profitable:
against 3+ limpers:

raise AA-88/AKo-AJo/KQo/AKs-A2s/KQs-K9s/QJs-Q8s/JTs-J9s/T9s
limp 77-22/ATo/KJo/QJo/JTo/KTo/QTo/...98s/(other suited)

In retrospect, I like a raise with AJo and 88 on the BTN, but I am not convinced it is necessarily more profitable. It's no different than the TT example; the times we raise the flop AND win, the pot will be bigger. But that does NOT mean our expectation (aka our profitability) is higher!

And to further emphasize, both limping and raising AJ/88 on the BTN against multiple limpers is profitable; it's a question of what combination of factors make one more profitable than the other.

leo doc · 08-10-2012, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo

I keep referring to the TT hand from SSHE, and I feel like nobody's addressed this idea. I'm going to paraphrase it here:

"4 limpers, we raise TT, blinds call. Flop: 765. Player to your direct right bets into you. You should just call."

SSHE's argument is that we can force our opponents to make a bigger FTOP's mistake on a later street, which is *MORE PROFITABLE*.

So how do we tell? What if I had QQ instead of TT, etc etc.

I'll address it. The TT hand is contrasted to an AA hand with the same flop and action coming back to you otb. Specifically,

Four players limp and you raise A

A

. BB and limpers call.

Flop: 9

7

3

BB donks, first limper raises, two more limpers call, SSHE recommends 3! because 1) there is no way to protect your hand, 2) your pot equity is about 50%, and 3) no overcards can come to beat your aces. It's also noteworthy that you have a bd nut flush draw.

Same flop and action, except this time you have T

T

. They recommend just calling the raise because your pot equity is gonna change a bunch predicated on the turn. I.e., four overcards can beat you, you don't have the T

and, since the flop raise came from your right, you'll want to face the field with calling two BBs on a turn blank.

So, the SSHE hand is different from what you've posted. And, to answer your other question, I'd push QQ on the flop, especially if I have the Q

.

crueleye · 08-10-2012, 01:36 PM

Its hard to quantify what I'm about to say but it seems to me that the winning-est sshe players I've played with tend more to the Lag side of Lag/Tag. It seems then that situations like this:

Quote:

Raise it pre and then turbofold the flop. One of these times you'll have a hand and when someone donks bp and someone else spaz-raises middle pair, you 3-bet with glee, and then b/f the turn and river to collect your bonus 4 BB.

Come up more often and make you more monies than trying to encourage your opponents to make big street mistakes by limping in with strong hands PF.

It is possible that you'd need to limp to encourage these big street mistakes if your PF raises are getting uber respect, but if this is the case than you need to re-evaluate your entire PF strategy. They want to make bad plays for multiple bets on multiple streets. Help them do it by raising liberally.

ChocolateMoo · 08-10-2012, 03:00 PM

leo - here's a stove analysis for discussion pertaining to the TT hand on a 973 board. I went for a best-case scenario (i.e. BB/UTG never has JJ-AA or AKs for example). So our equity is also closer to best-case:

Hand 1: (range: 9x/7x/88/JT/T8/86/99/77/33/every club combination/couple of spazz hands like KQo/A3 type stuff) 20.7%

Hand 2: slightly narrower than hand 1 (removed weaker club draws and spazz hands) 24.1%

Hand 3/4: wider than hand 1 15.3%

Hand 5: TT 24.5%

So our equity advantage is 4.5%; for 88 preflop, it's 3.7%. Some differences though; we have more future betting rounds with 88, and we potentially miss out on bets on boards our opponents whiff.

I don't know; I'm torn about raising 88 preflop. I always feel the schooling effect kicking in postflop. Raising 88 has to be close, as I limp 77 very happily in late position.

shuinthehouse · 08-10-2012, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo

Raising 88 is not close, as I raise 77 very happily in late position.

FYP

ChocolateMoo · 08-10-2012, 03:44 PM

I think raising 77 in late position, though profitable, is not as profitable as overlimping.

crueleye · 08-11-2012, 02:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo

leo - here's a stove analysis for discussion pertaining to the TT hand on a 973 board. I went for a best-case scenario (i.e. BB/UTG never has JJ-AA or AKs for example). So our equity is also closer to best-case:

Hand 1: (range: 9x/7x/88/JT/T8/86/99/77/33/every club combination/couple of spazz hands like KQo/A3 type stuff) 20.7%

Hand 2: slightly narrower than hand 1 (removed weaker club draws and spazz hands) 24.1%

Hand 3/4: wider than hand 1 15.3%

Hand 5: TT 24.5%

So our equity advantage is 4.5%; for 88 preflop, it's 3.7%. Some differences though; we have more future betting rounds with 88, and we potentially miss out on bets on boards our opponents whiff.

I don't know; I'm torn about raising 88 preflop. I always feel the schooling effect kicking in postflop. Raising 88 has to be close, as I limp 77 very happily in late position.

Argh. I don't know what you mean by "the schooling effect", but I think you're putting way to much emphasis on hot and cold equity and not enough on how else you can make money vs bad opponents other than leveraging a 4% all in equity edge.

Your 88 and 77 are worth more than their slight h/c equity calcs suggest. Give your opponents the opportunity to make bigger and more frequent mistakes by putting pressure on them.

Callipygian nailed this. Go read his response again.

ChocolateMoo · 08-11-2012, 05:04 AM

crueleye - I read it just fine the first time. Do you understand the discussion? " Give your opponents the opportunity to make bigger and more frequent mistakes" means forcing our opponents to put in more money when they have worse odds.

If your argument is that the positional advantage is so great, what's to prevent us from raising almost our entire range from the BTN? 54s/J7s/22/JTo.

Or T3s I guess.

I was hoping to generate more interesting discussion. Oh well.

crueleye · 08-11-2012, 11:51 AM

Ok nevermind.

crueleye · 08-11-2012, 12:32 PM

Actually, no, don't nevermind. I don't care if you want to get personal, I think you are dead wrong on this one.

My argument is not that positional advantage can overcome any initial equity disadvantage. That is an intentional misunderstanding of what I'm saying. Of course there is a huge difference between 10/3ss and 8/8 OTB.

What I'm saying is that there are more edges than just your initial pre-flop all-in equity edge and the best way to realize them is to play aggressively. Especially if this game is the 6/12 moofest you're describing it as.

You are suggesting that limping in will help you make more with this hand on the bigger streets. Even if this is true for this particular hand I don't think its the highest +EV move for the whole session. Not only will you probably make more money immediately (I'd rather put in two bets with an equity edge than one) but you will make more money on the big streets, and for the rest of the session, when your opponents realize you are betting thin in marginal situations and try to play back at you. (Calli's post)

Having loose passive opponents is a great situation. Having loose passive opponents get frustrated and start spazzing and spewing at you is even better.