6/12 Oaks

V1: drunk aggro playing 80%+ of hands. He has been on a heater for the last 3 hrs, but is starting to lose pots. I've seen him raise all of his monsters preflop, along with trash like K4o from the BB multiway with 6 players. Plays more straightforwardly postflop: for example, he doesn't raise bluff on the big streets, he puts in a lot of action when he has good equity hands. When he does bluff, the general pattern is "bet-call flop, donk turn." He'll even bet-call turn and donk bluff river. Has a tendency to overvalue hands sometimes (the K4o example, he flopped top pair and put in 4 bets on the flop and led the turn).

V2: aggro. I've seen him attempt FSDR V1 with bottom pair on the turn. He's entering pots with too loose of a range and raising hands I would normally limp with. (e.g. 3betting 44 against V1's UTG open from MP. The FSDR hand mentioned above is with A5o from MP.)

My image: losing, giving up a lot of pots postflop. No caught bluffs, just appear like nothing is working out.

V1 raises UTG, V2 cold-calls in MP, 2 others call, I call J7 from sb, BB calls.

Flop: T95 Pot ~11sb
I check, BB checks, V1 bets, V2 raises, `1 caller, I call, BB folds, V1 calls.

Turn: 6 Pot ~19sb

I check, V1 bets, V2 raises, 1 fold, I call, V1 calls.

River: 6 Pot ~25sb

I check, V1 bets, V2 shakes his head a little and hastily calls, I raise.

Thoughts?

This isn't 2/3/5 NL so right off the bat squeezing isn't a great idea.

If you want to bluff both of them, you're better 3-betting the turn. You're repping a much more credible range (87, 55, maybe 99, maybe T9) and V1 has a lot of stuff he'll fold for 2BB but call for 1 BB. V2 will almost certainly call a turn 3 but will give up 1-pair hands on the river.

Don't I have a lot of draws I'm repping by 3betting the turn?

On the river, I rep a flush/full house.

I hate the river bluff.

Fold preflop.
As played, fold flop.
As played, fold turn.
As played, fold river.

Oh, ****. I misread the board. I thought the flush hit the turn. Yeah, don't 3-bet the turn then. But don't c/r the river either. Nobody will believe you have a full house.

Preflop: I usually fold this on the SB.

Flop: after V2 raised, I don't think you have the right odds to call 2 cold for gutshot and back door flush.

Turn: as played, easy call.

River: I don't think these are the right villains to try something like that. I'd be very surprise if they lay down a pair.

Are people really folding this PF? I am generally nittier than most and I am calling this all day long with a raise and three cold callers.

And yeah the river bluff is generally not good - no one is gonna give you credit here.

River is obv pretty crazy. Was hoping it'd be profitable given two opponents who have a pretty wide range containing bs.

On the flop, is folding > calling? We're calling 8:1 immediate with a gutter + overcard + bdfd (and can improve our gutter straight draw to open ender). If all outs are live, we have 8 outs requiring 5.5:1. If we discount all of our outs (straight draw and overcard covered by QJ) by 1/2, we have 4.5 outs requiring 10:1. Blending the equity we have something like 6 outs requiring 7.5:1 immediate.

Granted, we're not closing the action, but our implied odds are pretty good.

I think flop is pretty bad.

U can have huge action if u hit the flop tho i can see a fold pf vs vilain who bluff and raise lot postflop ( weak suited connectors play badly vs those vilains)
Easy fold flop imo

I am a spaztard but I would not call this pre. Suited 3 gappers just suck, and the small blind is a bad spot to play a bloated pot from. You end up checking and cold calling a bunch of bets and then suicide raising the river

My bad play doesn't mean we should fold preflop!
(Btw, 6/12 is 2 chip / 3 chip structure, if that matters significantly)

60% 22.15% <-- UTG
15%-50% 20.19%
15%-50% 20.19%
Jd7d 20.15% <-- me (SB)
15%-80% 17.32%

Even when UTG's opening range is super tight (say top 10%), our equity drops to 17%. But we are getting 5.25:1 (assuming BB calls and taking out rake) when we only need 4.88:1. (for 1 chip, 3 chip, our odds drop down to 4.2:1, but I'd probably still call and claim implied odds)

Also, these guys play so terribly postflop.... more reason to call? Iono, I am looking for every excuse to enter a pot against them.

With a drunk in the pot, with a wider opening range than normal, who overplays top pair and probably does other bad stuff, I'm never folding this hand in this spot even in a 1-2 structure.

Yes it does. Let say this hand will be a .2bb/100 winner if we play good post flop, a .5bb/100 winner if we are a wizard and a -.5bb/100 loser if we are going to play bad post flop (I think check calling two cold here with bad end of straight draw oop and not closing action is bad) then we should fold pre flop.

Agree with Jon that flop is a fold. Saying we're not drawing to the nuts is actually an understatement on this specific board. The hand we're worried about should we hit (QJ) is arguably the most popular preflop coldcalling hand in the game. So our prospects here are actually significantly worse than when we are drawing to other non-nut gutshots on other boards. Plus a bad river like a Jack or a Queen (those times we spike turn) is significantly more likely to **** us since people play more high cards than low cards. So yea there's a difference between this hand and say 53 on a Q76 board.

I'm assuming you missed the fact that hero has a flush draw on the turn.

PS: I'm an expert O8 player now. Can't wait to check raise bluff the turn vs you next time youre in Vegas!

No, I saw he has a flush draw on the turn, but he's just barely getting odds for calling the two cold (assuming no one has a set or two pair, or another flush draw), and he is nowhere close to closing the action, so it is extremely marginal.

CM have you seen anything from drunk's play that would suggest he can make "big" laydowns?

Come on bro.

OK, I was also trying for some symmetry. I did say "maybe call turn" in my edit explanation of the original post (probably not visible to people viewing 2+2 on a phone). I have certainly folded in similar spots where it looked like it was going to end up costing me 4 bets though.

I would think turn is the easiest street to play. Assuming the worst case scenario of 3 players going to the river for 4bets a piece, I'm calling 4BB to win 17.5BB, or 4.375:1 odds. I have the backdoor flush draw, so the chance of either player having the diamond flush draw is pretty negligible. Add in the fact that V2 could easily be raising with one-pair hands (and even pairs under my 7), I can have anywhere from 3-6 additional outs just to hit a pair.

The most likely scenario is UTG betting cheese and V2 iso-raising a hand like Tx/9x. That gives me 15outs = 30% (need 2.33:1 odds immediate, which I have).