6/12

I open AQ UTG, get 5 callers including blinds. My image is super-active (just picking up a lot of raiseable hands), likely viewed as tilted due to losing a 2 rack pot with AA. (TBH, prob was a bit tilted).

Reads: BTN is your typical LP variety. Has some propensity to bet if shown weakness, typically doesn't raise or 3bet big streets without 2pair+.

sb is unknown.

Pot~11.33 sb

Flop: J J 2

Checked to BTN who bets, sb calls, I call, rest fold.

Turn: Q
Checked to BTN who bets, sb calls, I call.

River: 5
Checked to BTN who hesitates and bets, sb calls, I moooooo and call.

Question: Thoughts on cbetting this flop?
Of leading turn vs c/raising turn vs c/cing turn?
Thoughts on overcalling river?

I wouldn't with 5 behind me.

That's the perfect card to donk/fold 'cause you're never getting raised by worse in a passive 6/12 game.

Would have depended on how my donk ott was treated.

I would not bet this flop. I might even fold because we don't have a hand, and there's a decent possibility someone has a J, leaving us almost no outs. But even without the JJ on the board, I would not bet -- and would often fold -- my overcards here. IME, betting overcards is spewing b/c you will NEVER get that many people to fold, and drawing to top pair is usually not worth it unless the flop is absolutely dead.

I would bet the turn though, once we've caught a hand. If you're raised, then you can snap fold on the trips likelihood; if not raised, you know you're good, and you can also bet the river if another spade doesn't fall.

If SB had checked on the turn instead of betting, I'd be more worried about the flush (especially with the hesitation, which sounds like Hollywood), but here I think your call is OK.

leo and Map - b/f will forsake 4% equity in a sizeable pot. Still better than c/c or c/raise?

If you get raised after donking the turn, you won't have 4% equity.

leo - I don't understand. Two queens going into the river will give me a full house...

Sorry, I was being flippant.

Looks like you're getting a little better than 9:1 to call the turn. If you think you have 4% equity, well...

I don't like folding the flop for 1 bet once we check. I do like checking the flop. I think 4-ways its close to being a bet.

On the turn, I would lead. If we check, I think it has to be under the assumption that we expect Btn to bet any pair or FD and we can C/R for value after SB calls. I don't like checking if our plan is to Ch/C 3-ways.

As played, I'm not folding on the river.

PokerStove with typical 6-12 ranges tells us we have about 8.5% equity on this flop. We're getting about 13-1 pot odds when it's bet to us, so we just barely have the pot odds to call. The RIO of a top pair (against the possibility of trips, say), particularly with three players behind us, is enough to destroy whatever equity edge we have here, I think.

This is consistent with my own experience playing overcards. I have become much, much more likely to fold overcards with this many opponents, having wasted a lot of calls on them only to miss, or get out-drawn when I do hit a pair.

According to everyone in this thread, we can snap fold to any more action with TPTK once we re-open the action on the turn. I don't think we have bad RIO if this is the case.

As leo has said, why not just donk/fold the turn? Yeah, it turns our hand face up but they don't know that.

I think that only happens if (1) we catch our TPTK on the turn; and (2) we get raised or re-raised. Even then, that costs us one small bet plus one or more big bets.

And what if someone bets in front of us on the turn? That could be very costly, especially if there are still players behind us.

And don't forget the flush possibilities out there -- those could be very costly for us too.

The other side of the RIO coin is that if we catch TPTK and if it turns out to be the best hand, we're probably not going to get a ton of action.

The more I think about it, with this board, in this position, folding on the flop seems to me to be the best play.

Well, you list all these scenario's and in all of them we lose generally 1 BB, at most 2 (and these are worst case scenarios.) However, when we hit a pair I think we can generally expect to win 2+ BB's when we're ahead.

To Ch/Fold this flop we have to assuming Jx is just a huge portion of their continuing ranges, which I just don't buy.

Even if they're playing ATC at random, the chance someone has a J is >40%. Use reasonable ranges and it goes up.

I'm not sure how you get your 1 or 2 bb assumption.

+1