6/12 Oaks

Reads:
V1 - seems to like donking wide.
V2 - loose-passive.

Hand is a little hazy in my memory, but here it goes:

couple of limpers including V1, I raise AQ in MP, V2 cold-calls somewhere in late position, 5 to the flop.

Flop: J23 Pot~9sb

Checked to V1 who donks, I raise, V2 cold-calls, rest fold, V1 calls.

Turn: 8 Pot~7.5BB

MP donks again. I?

Some of my thoughts:
1. I think V1 can be donking a lot of random things on the flop and turn: Jx/3x/some spades/sets. I don't think all of them call a turn raise.
2. I think V2 can have hands like Jx/54s/flushes/pps/sets. Not all of them call a turn raise.

Call or raise? Flop raise is super-standard I presume?

pot is 9BB.
Would you rather win a 9BB pot or loose a 11 to 13BB pot because you wanted to have 1BB more by not raising the turn ?

In big to huge pot, just do the play that gives you the best chances to win the pot.

Turn= raise, not even close.

if the pot was kinda of small to medium facing 1 player, ok .
But if those conditions are worst ( bigger pot or facing multiple players), nvm slow play.

He's never winning the pot on the turn vs a set that's betting out is he?

My Grandma would raise this turn.

If you think not raising this spot is correct you are making a big mistake.
You are not taking into consideration the size of the pot...

I thought you were MP?

I'm not saying raising isn't right, you just proposed the prospect of winning 9BB vs losing 11-13, and I wondered if that was even a possibility that should be considered.

I mean if Villian wants to bet out a set or worse on a four flush board when we hold the nuts, yeah raise it for value.

i think there's a logical fallacy here. If you're looking to call $10 to win $100 on the river, you can't just say "oh, I'll call 100% of the time so I never risk not winning the $100". In the extreme case where you have the nut low, you will 100% lose $10.

Both players can have sets/2p. It probably makes up <5% of either player's range. Neither player is likely to fold their 4-7 outer. So I get value out of that 5% range, but potentially lose value from the other bigger parts of their range.

But maybe my concern of losing value isn't valid here. They might still call a turn raise with KsX, 4s4h, etc.

If I think the majority of V1's range is cheese that cant call a raise, i was considering stringing V2 on the river by just calling the turn and river.

Raise turn. V2 either has a hand that is drawing dead and will call all bets (Ks), a hand where he is just not going to continue no matter what you do (Jx with no spade), or a hand where he will call unlimited bets on the turn but probably not on the river (a set or 2 pair). Get the $ in now.

I don't think we should even be thinking about protection here - it's a pure value proposition.

What about small/medium spades.

Raise him again because people who donk liberally deserve to feel the pain and agony of Thor's hammer. And because you have the nuts.

Does your answer change if I have 2-4 players behind me?

No

All this talk about potentially losing the hand bewilders me. We have the mathematical nuts.

The only reason that we'd NOT raise is if there are twice as many weak drawers (people with a few "outs" to second best hands) that would fold for two but call for one than strong drawers (people with lots of real outs to winning hands) that would call for two.

On a four-flush board, save for a few truly special people, nobody's calling a gutshot straight draw for one bet. On the flip side, few people are folding two pair for two bets.

Right. And I'm more inclined to raise the turn if there are more hands in villains' ranges that want to pay 2 bets. e.g. JxTxXx boards and when my Qs is not blocking the 3rd nuts).

It is 6/12 though, and as you put it in another thread, im viewed as a money-hater Maybe they call 2 bets with 6s4s/5s4s because zomg straight flushie.

If he will call 2 bets to draw to a flush with a small/medium spade, he will likely pay 2 bets once he gets there. There's only one way to find out.

Or maybe they call a 6-high one-card flush for 2 bets even without the straight flush draw.

Sometimes things just work out, like the guy behind you thinks the donker is an idiot, so he calls with the 6s, then the guy behind him thinks that guy is an idiot so he calls with the 9s and then the BB is like wtf I have the Ks, and then nobody folds the river because now there is a zillion chips in the middle and if their 6s holds up just once out of 20 times it's EV+.

This, all day long. Lots of discussion about raising the turn to protect our hand re: sets (and maybe two pair) that might draw out; this does not compute. Given 6/12 game and reads on villains, hands like that are coming along regardless of what we do.

I strongly suspect we make more bets in the long run by raising now than we do smooth-calling and making the play on the river.

I think you are missing the point about protecting your hand vs a set when you say:" they will not fold and will call anyway."

Of course they will. That is the point.
if the donker has a set ( or the guy behind has one set ) in this big pot and we do not raise, no mistake been made by both players because they only pay 1 BB on turn.
You raise to protect your hand to make sure they make a mistake by paying too much on the turn when they calls.

I am? I'm advocating for a raise in this spot, as are you. Maybe we're just talking past each other. I'm a bit confused on your wording --

To me, I'm "protecting my hand" when I'm raising to prevent my opponent from getting odds to draw, or I'm cleaning up outs that could otherwise slay me later, etc. Not applicable here. I'm raising for value, in anticipation of the very mistake you mention, which is where that value comes from.

I like the raise -- I guess we're just thinking about it a bit differently.

ok i misunderstood.

Raise