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Old 07-18-2012, 05:04 AM   #1
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6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

6/12

MP limp, Villain raises from Hijack. Table is loose, my image is aggressive.

Reads: Villain has a propensity to raise light. His PFR is probably around 40. Postflop, he plays straightforward. sb is a calling station, BB is passive bad, on the nittier side that misses value.

I 3bet A4 from CO.

Question: How do people feel about cold-calling here, vs folding and 3betting? My range is likely ahead of CO's and MP's, but I may not fold out BTN/SB/BB. Not sure if that's necessarily bad.

sb calls, BB calls, limper calls, villain calls. Pot~14.33 sb.

Flop: J53

Checked to villain who bets.

Question: How do people feel about calling vs raising? (I hope folding isn't an option). I can have anywhere from 4 outs to the best hand against villain, but I have 3 others to act after me. Raising potentially buys me free cards and "freezes" the action (i.e. will "slow" down better hands from the blinds, probably as good as Jx), or simply spews away $$.

I call, sb raises, BB 3bets, limper folds, villain calls.

Question: Call or fold? I am laid 23.33:2 (about 12:1) on a call where I should have, on average, about 4 outs (need 11.5:1). My ace outs start looking tainted with BB 3betting, but I may get free cards from BB checking scare cards. I also have position. Capping seems spewy. I could, of course, be drawing dead if two people have 64 and a set, respectively.

I call. Rest of hand is Moooooot.

Last edited by ChocolateMoo; 07-18-2012 at 05:10 AM.
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Old 07-18-2012, 05:38 AM   #2
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

If you can't fold out the folks in the rest of the hand then I don't like raising (3!). If you stand a chance of isoing the pfr and if the limper might fold (which some do to me cuz I'm a nit ) then raising is great. I don't like ccing first in this late in position - I think its a raise or fold.

I think raising otf has its merits if we can clean up our ace outs but i think it gets iffy because what is villian donking with? I don't think we are ahead of a J and we are essentially bluffing into a mw pot on wettish board... I think raising is a little risky ... that said - I'd call the first time around and fold the second time it comes back to me. I think we are facing a set AND quite possibly a fd. If that's so we only have 3 clean outs and if I counted correctly when it gets back to you the second time you're getting 23.33:2 or 11.5:1 isn't enough to call there. Plus we don't know if sb is gonna cap ... if we were closing the action I might be able to talk myself into a call thinking we could make it up if we hit the miracle later on.
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Old 07-18-2012, 10:59 AM   #3
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I would stand back and try to look at the flop 3bet idea objectively:

SB decided to k/r both the original raiser and us, BB took 2 to the face and bettor called this raise on a two tone flop. Unless they have all lost their mind (it happens from time to time) we may have 3 or 4 clean outs to the winner and may have to also dodge the flush (it'll come a third of the time). Oh, and we currently hold the Ace Four high.

What makes you think that SB won't cap?. Why would he slow down?.

We are indeed in a tight spot. Adding bets 24 and 25 to the pot and reopening the betting with our holding sounds suicidal to me.
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:47 PM   #4
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

I think cold calling this hand pre is fine given your reads of the blinds. I'd be much more inclined to fold if the blinds were more competent. I don't like 3-betting given your reads.

As played, I just call the donk. Raising seems kinda spewy and I don't think we accomplish much. Getting a free card seems kinda optimistic and we're put in an ugly spot if the action re-opens.

Facing the 2 more back to us on the flop, I'm not sure what to do. Either decision seems really marginal.
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Old 07-18-2012, 02:51 PM   #5
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

I think cc'ing and 3betting are both viable options pf; arguments could be made for either. Folding is the only option that I think is a clear mistake.

I'm not inclined to raise the flop donk; we're just too damn weak (sometimes at least his donk is going to mean he's got something) with very few clean outs to improve. And I don't like the idea of bluffing multiway, particularly against people who like to call too much (raising might not even buy the equity protection you're hoping for).

I call and hope to see next card for one bet, likely folding the turn UI.
When it comes two back to you, it's an easy fold. Edit: Whoops, just noticed size of pot. Still OK to fold, imo, but perhaps not easy. Likely drawing to 4 outs (often only 3 with the FD out there, and not closing the action either; plus if someone holds 64, even those are toast). So I still probably ditch the hand here.
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Old 07-18-2012, 11:31 PM   #6
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

calling two cold is spewy ott.
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Old 07-21-2012, 06:19 PM   #7
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

Preflop is meh. I won't pretend I haven't done it, but I'm not entirely sure it's good.

As an aside, a PFR of 40 is pretty high - suspiciously high, actually, and I'm skeptical that anyone actually does that. A PFR of 40 means a huge 3-betting range and probably a raising percentage of like 60-70% from late position. I'm going to assume you mean an open-raise range of top 40% from the HJ, which is well within reason (but not the same as PFR of 40%).

There's no point in getting fancy on the flop. Call, and call 2, and then call again. If SB and BB were telegraphing large action, you can fold the flop the first time around, but getting sucked into 3-4 bets on the installment plan isn't the worst scenario in the world either. You've probably got 3 straight outs and 0 ace outs, so you need 14:1. 12:1 is fine since you'll get IO if you hit.

Obviously, limit your RIO when you spike an ace or the 4.
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Old 07-21-2012, 06:27 PM   #8
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

callip - sry, i meant open-raise of 40%. He does cap light too (QTs earlier with 6 people in the pot), which in that particular case wasn't necessarily bad (I 3bet him in that hand with KQ).
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Old 07-28-2012, 04:35 AM   #9
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
You've probably got 3 straight outs and 0 ace outs, so you need 14:1. 12:1 is fine since you'll get IO if you hit.
How do you plan to prevent a spade or pairing card on the river?
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Old 08-02-2012, 05:41 PM   #10
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
Preflop is meh. I won't pretend I haven't done it, but I'm not entirely sure it's good.

As an aside, a PFR of 40 is pretty high - suspiciously high, actually, and I'm skeptical that anyone actually does that. A PFR of 40 means a huge 3-betting range and probably a raising percentage of like 60-70% from late position. I'm going to assume you mean an open-raise range of top 40% from the HJ, which is well within reason (but not the same as PFR of 40%).

There's no point in getting fancy on the flop. Call, and call 2, and then call again. If SB and BB were telegraphing large action, you can fold the flop the first time around, but getting sucked into 3-4 bets on the installment plan isn't the worst scenario in the world either. You've probably got 3 straight outs and 0 ace outs, so you need 14:1. 12:1 is fine since you'll get IO if you hit.

Obviously, limit your RIO when you spike an ace or the 4.
I think this pretty much nails it. If I knew I would have to call 3 to call 1, I fold, but given that you keep getting priced in, I think I call because I can't fold for 1 on the flop given the description of the SB and BB.

And I call 1 on the turn, but not 2.
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Old 08-02-2012, 05:43 PM   #11
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Re: 6/12 Bloated Like a Cow

And I don't raise because we're not really going to accomplish much. Maybe we get a freebie but our hand is actually pretty weak and SB and the BB could both call or C/R and then we really haven't done anything. I would rather have at least a BDFD to think about raising, as our equity would be a lot better w/out RIO and more from our backdoors.
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