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4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. 4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision.

02-09-2015 , 01:40 AM
6 limpers. SB completes. Hero raises KK from BB. Everyone calls.

Flop is TTT. SB checks. Hero bets. UTG, UTG+1 and SB calls.

Turn is 6. SB checks. Do I bet and call down a raise? Or is there any merit into check calling down now?

Board is a little scary with 7 players seeing the flop.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biggle10
6 limpers. SB completes. Hero raises KK from BB. Everyone calls.

Flop is TTT. SB checks. Hero bets. UTG, UTG+1 and SB calls.

Turn is 6. SB checks. Do I bet and call down a raise? Or is there any merit into check calling down now?
You have the third nuts, and nobody has the second nuts.

Bet, and decide whether to 3-bet or call depending on whether you think the raise has to mean a ten.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 03:07 AM
Super easy b/c. Only 46 possible Tx combos left, and many of them are heavily discounted (even at 4/8). Factor in that no one has AA, and everyone and their mom are calling turn thin (Ax) or dead (99-), it's an easy bet. Call if you get raised, as even these guys may think any pocket pair is for value here.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 03:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
You have the third nuts, and nobody has the second nuts.

Bet, and decide whether to 3-bet or call depending on whether you think the raise has to mean a ten.
I'd stick to calling down as the parlay at 4/8 of them raising worse for value (unlikely, but possible), and calling the three bet (likely if the first condition is true) is a bit too steep imo.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 03:20 AM
Must bet. Quadzilla won't raise til the river.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 04:03 AM
At these stakes I expect quadzilla to donk the river.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 08:59 AM
If the turn was a K, Q, or J I would be more likely to 3B unless the player raising was very passive. With the 6 hitting I would still bet and be less likely to 3b but would still consider it based on who I'm up against.

Without reads, I think bet/call is best since you have raised from a position of strength and have bet the flop and turn. Most 4/8 players will put you on a very strong hand since they would never raise with less than KK's themselves from the BB "since nobody will fold anyways".

This is a great flop since you'll get action from all types of hands. It's definitely not scary. You'll make more money if you take an optimistic view in these situations. Your not gonna loose to quads very often.

Last edited by mongidig; 02-09-2015 at 09:18 AM.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 12:12 PM
I mean don't get me wrong I'm with OP. When seven people take the flop one of them usually has a ten. It would kind of help to know if these 6 other players were absurdly loose or just like standard loose cause if you narrow their ranges to anything remotely reasonable on the preflop the chances of the ten being out just go way way up. But I mean you still gotta bet you have kings. I actually think there could be some merit to checking at higher stakes where an opponent will snap bet pocket threes when checked to, but here you're gonna miss so much value.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888
I mean don't get me wrong I'm with OP. When seven people take the flop one of them usually has a ten. It would kind of help to know if these 6 other players were absurdly loose or just like standard loose cause if you narrow their ranges to anything remotely reasonable on the preflop the chances of the ten being out just go way way up. But I mean you still gotta bet you have kings. I actually think there could be some merit to checking at higher stakes where an opponent will snap bet pocket threes when checked to, but here you're gonna miss so much value.
Ya, but if I'm checking at higher stakes, it would be to raise.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-09-2015 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888
I mean don't get me wrong I'm with OP. When seven people take the flop one of them usually has a ten. It would kind of help to know if these 6 other players were absurdly loose or just like standard loose cause if you narrow their ranges to anything remotely reasonable on the preflop the chances of the ten being out just go way way up. But I mean you still gotta bet you have kings. I actually think there could be some merit to checking at higher stakes where an opponent will snap bet pocket threes when checked to, but here you're gonna miss so much value.
There are three tens on board, its not very likely someone has one. If someone does, they will probably be jumping out of thier seat, and yoh will most likely have a good idea you are in trouble. I would assume my hand is the nuts until then
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-10-2015 , 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
Ya, but if I'm checking at higher stakes, it would be to raise.
Sure totally reasonable
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-10-2015 , 12:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdseed
There are three tens on board, its not very likely someone has one. If someone does, they will probably be jumping out of thier seat, and yoh will most likely have a good idea you are in trouble. I would assume my hand is the nuts until then
12 cards saw the flop vs you. People like tens and jacks. Your statement is false.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 12:56 AM
I'm going to b/c. There are players that will absolutely only raise w quads though, and I would b/f if they raised. But against those that might see a chance to steal the pot by repping a 10 "only 1 left, nobody has it so I raise" I would get to showdown. If you are type to consider checking the turn (which isn't completely unreasonable, it's just tight and passive), there may be a player convinced that they can take you off of what looks like a biggish pair. But get your value from the smaller boats and even A hi for at least one street by cbetting.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 01:04 AM
Not betting is way too MUBSy. Sure, lots of times there's a T. But so often people are calling with QJ and 76 and 22 that checking is super silly.

If you want to fold it, that's probably OK, but I would default to b/c-c/c.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 04:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888
12 cards saw the flop vs you. People like tens and jacks. Your statement is false.
I stoved this, believe it or not. Against our 4 remaining opponents, we are about a 76-24 favorite. Checking is missing value a lot more often than it is running into quadzilla.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 06:07 AM
Your math seems wrong since you're considering 4 opponents.

On the flop, we have to hope the case ten is not among their 14 collective cards after having seen 5 cards. So 14/47 chance the ten is among their cards = 29.8%. This assumes they are playing random cards. If you discount a lot of small card combos, this percentage should go up.

The bigger idea is that the times you are good, you gain multiple bets from opponents; the times you are bad, it only costs you 1 bet.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
Your math seems wrong since you're considering 4 opponents.

On the flop, we have to hope the case ten is not among their 14 collective cards after having seen 5 cards. So 14/47 chance the ten is among their cards = 29.8%. This assumes they are playing random cards. If you discount a lot of small card combos, this percentage should go up.

The bigger idea is that the times you are good, you gain multiple bets from opponents; the times you are bad, it only costs you 1 bet.
What I am assuming is that they call all their small pairs and hands with one overcard to the flop.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
I stoved this, believe it or not. Against our 4 remaining opponents, we are about a 76-24 favorite. Checking is missing value a lot more often than it is running into quadzilla.
That's stupefying to me quite frankly.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
Your math seems wrong since you're considering 4 opponents.

On the flop, we have to hope the case ten is not among their 14 collective cards after having seen 5 cards. So 14/47 chance the ten is among their cards = 29.8%. This assumes they are playing random cards. If you discount a lot of small card combos, this percentage should go up.

The bigger idea is that the times you are good, you gain multiple bets from opponents; the times you are bad, it only costs you 1 bet.
yeah that's more what I was thinking. my back of the envelope calculations were something like 12/48 cards saw the flop (I think it was 6 opponents not 7), so that's 25%, a little fudge factor for tens being "usually played" (how big this fudge factor should be depends on how loose these guys are), so I arrived at like 30%. Then I feel the fact that three people called the flop actually raises the chances of it.

lawdude I suspect your equity number being so high may come from assuming there are too many drawing dead pocket pairs out there (both by not having enough **** boxes in ranges and by not discounting the fact that 77 to 99 probably would have raised on the preflop), but can also see an argument that 98s is not folding this flop. Even with all this nonsense if you're WAY off which I don't think you are there appears to be no chance we have less than 60% equity 4 ways, can still expect tons of worse hands to call, and would actually really like to fold a naked ace (which has potentially four outs) to fold.

So I stick with my original statement you absolutely must bet.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-11-2015 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888
yeah that's more what I was thinking. my back of the envelope calculations were something like 12/48 cards saw the flop (I think it was 6 opponents not 7), so that's 25%, a little fudge factor for tens being "usually played" (how big this fudge factor should be depends on how loose these guys are), so I arrived at like 30%. Then I feel the fact that three people called the flop actually raises the chances of it.

lawdude I suspect your equity number being so high may come from assuming there are too many drawing dead pocket pairs out there (both by not having enough **** boxes in ranges and by not discounting the fact that 77 to 99 probably would have raised on the preflop), but can also see an argument that 98s is not folding this flop. Even with all this nonsense if you're WAY off which I don't think you are there appears to be no chance we have less than 60% equity 4 ways, can still expect tons of worse hands to call, and would actually really like to fold a naked ace (which has potentially four outs) to fold.

So I stick with my original statement you absolutely must bet.
It's 4/8. 77 to 99 isn't raising all that often, are they? And I think people tear off a card with a hand like A6 or K6 here in a 4/8 game with a big pot-- they want to try to hit and they may even think their hand is good sometimes.

But yeah, we agree that we still have a lot of equity and also get to clear up some outs with a bet.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-18-2015 , 05:57 AM
I think an argument can be made for a b/f on the turn. But I'm mostly defaulting to bet/call-call and shrugging when I see T2s.
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-21-2015 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo
I think an argument can be made for a b/f on the turn. But I'm mostly defaulting to bet/call-call and shrugging when I see T2s.
Agree. OP if this board scares you you must be scared a lot. This is about as safe as it gets and as simple a hand as you are ever gonna get. Bet until someone raises you and then see if they have quads or not.

Jesse I don't really see why you were saying that guy is wrong, there is only one ten left in the deck, it is "unlikely" its out. Maybe we are just arguing about the definition of "unlikely" ?
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote
02-22-2015 , 12:07 PM
Would you guy's b/3b the turn if a k,Q, or J hit? Or still just call down a raise?
4/8 I have a full house.  Turn decision. Quote

      
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