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Small Stakes Limit Discussions about small stakes Texas Hold'em (from 2/4 to around 15/30)

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Old 01-12-2017, 04:32 PM   #151
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

Looks like a full 3/4+ gram movie. Maybe I'll watch it on youtube.
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Old 01-13-2017, 02:32 AM   #152
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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The Dark Crystal - quite good, you ought to carve out an hour and a half and check it out!
It's got David Bowie, Jennifer Connelly, and Muppets. 2/3 ain't bad!
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Old 01-13-2017, 12:25 PM   #153
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

Is there any way in hell that the Pats don't cover 15.5?

Bat signal to the degens out there!
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Old 01-13-2017, 12:56 PM   #154
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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Is there any way in hell that the Pats don't cover 15.5?

Bat signal to the degens out there!
Weather forecast is mid to high 30's and sunny so good offensive weather. I know Clowney and Mercilus (best name ever for a D lineman) are playing very well, but I don't see Houston covering unless Ostweiler is devinely gifted mad skilz.
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Old 01-13-2017, 01:47 PM   #155
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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Is there any way in hell that the Pats don't cover 15.5?
Absolutely. If the Pats are up by more than 14-21 points they're probably not going to run up the score. The probability of the Pats being up by >15.5 with 5 minutes to go is waaay higher than with 0 minutes to go.

I'm not a sports bettor at all, but a 3-score spread seems like a crazy spread to me. O/U is 44 so covering a 16 spread would be 31-14? It's really hard to imagine the Pats wouldn't just give up a score and run the clock out on a 2-score victory.

Plus the spread is probably so insulting that the Texans are going to be motivated by pure spite. Look back at the 2007 season when the Patriots were arguably a better team and more motivated, even then you didn't get bigger spreads than this.
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Old 01-13-2017, 01:53 PM   #156
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

The real spread of the Patriots game should be Texans +12 to Texans +14, IMO.
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Old 01-13-2017, 02:38 PM   #157
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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It's got David Bowie, Jennifer Connelly, and Muppets. 2/3 ain't bad!


1/3 is bad. You're thinking of Labyrinth.
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Old 01-13-2017, 04:43 PM   #158
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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Old 01-13-2017, 05:28 PM   #159
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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Absolutely. If the Pats are up by more than 14-21 points they're probably not going to run up the score. The probability of the Pats being up by >15.5 with 5 minutes to go is waaay higher than with 0 minutes to go.

I'm not a sports bettor at all, but a 3-score spread seems like a crazy spread to me. O/U is 44 so covering a 16 spread would be 31-14? It's really hard to imagine the Pats wouldn't just give up a score and run the clock out on a 2-score victory.
First, some nittery: 15.5 points is two scores in betting parlance, but I know what you're sayin'. Second, the Pats aren't gonna lay down with a two score lead, irrespective of time left.

O/U is 44 cause Vegas doesn't think Houston can score (much). Can easily see a 27-7 or 35-10 game.

Just my opinion, of course.
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Old 01-13-2017, 05:44 PM   #160
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

Got Pats at -15.5
Packers over 23.5
Steelers/KC over 43.5
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Old 01-13-2017, 05:55 PM   #161
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

Jesse,
Heart or head for Sunday's game?
Thinking of staying indoors playing PLO instead of braving the ice storm.
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Old 01-13-2017, 05:56 PM   #162
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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Got Pats at -15.5
Packers over 23.5
Steelers/KC over 43.5


I'd go under Pitt game
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Old 01-13-2017, 06:29 PM   #163
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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First, some nittery: 15.5 points is two scores in betting parlance, but I know what you're sayin'. Second, the Pats aren't gonna lay down with a two score lead, irrespective of time left.

O/U is 44 cause Vegas doesn't think Houston can score (much). Can easily see a 27-7 or 35-10 game.

Just my opinion, of course.
Your opinion counts more than mine. I have wagered a total of $20 on sports bets in my life.
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Old 01-13-2017, 06:41 PM   #164
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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I'd go under Pitt game
Moneyline on Steelers at +120 or so. Don't like the under since KC has a heated field surface.

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Your opinion counts more than mine. I have wagered a total of $20 on sports bets in my life.
See above and bet $20 to double lifetime sports bet winnings.
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Old 01-13-2017, 07:31 PM   #165
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

When it's football season I hope that only Asian women dealers show up. The reason is that THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO TALK ABOUT FOOTBALL STARTING THE MOMENT THEY SIT DOWN!

But, carry on, gl beating the vig, everyone.
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Old 01-13-2017, 08:47 PM   #166
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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Moneyline on Steelers at +120 or so. Don't like the under since KC has a heated field surface.



See above and bet $20 to double lifetime sports bet winnings.


Interesting. Didn't realize that.
So shouldn't be a problem for the steelers to give up multiple return TDs to hill then.
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Old 01-13-2017, 09:08 PM   #167
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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1/3 is bad. You're thinking of Labyrinth.
Oh ****, there was more than one Muppet fantasy movie? Wow.
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Old 01-13-2017, 09:19 PM   #168
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

I said I bet $20, not that I won $20.

I won one $10 bet and lost one $10 bet. So lifetime I'm down whatever vig is (-$1.50?).

I'm okay with my status as lifetime sports bet fish. Will root for the Patriots to cover both for your sake and because best team ever go pats ldo.
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Old 01-13-2017, 10:45 PM   #169
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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So shouldn't be a problem for the steelers to give up multiple return TDs to hill then.
I'll do 2:1 for a fun tic that Hill doesn't get a kickoff or punt return for a TD against the Steelers.
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Old 01-14-2017, 01:39 PM   #170
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2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

So I got accused of either angling or cheating, which is nice. Closing action in a pretty big pot with a weak draw...I've got A5s with a 54Q-2 board facing one bet like 5 ways. My hand is in front of me with a chip on it like always and when I finally say eff it and call the dealer is putting down the river (which is an 8).

Guy two to my right says that I waited to see the card before I called which is lol but he's an idiot and a donator so whatever but I hate that **** like that just casually gets thrown around
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Old 01-14-2017, 01:57 PM   #171
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

I took my 93 y.o. uncle (he flew a P-38 fighter in the Pacific during WWII!) to play 3-6 and then have dinner at Talking Stick. In a really big pot that I'd had to call a raise in the BB I flopped the nuts, still had the nuts on the turn, I checked the river when the board paired, last to act said 'Wait a minute', reached into his pants pocket to get his car keys and tossed them into the pot saying 'I bet THIS!'

Huge pot at 3-6 lhe and I felt like maybe this was the time to save the mini shrimp cocktail but, ofc, I called and lost to quads.

Uncle paid for dinner, I had sushi.
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Old 01-14-2017, 02:53 PM   #172
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

Uncle didn't mind paying for Japanese food?
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Old 01-14-2017, 03:24 PM   #173
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

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So I got accused of either angling or cheating, which is nice. Closing action in a pretty big pot with a weak draw...I've got A5s with a 54Q-2 board facing one bet like 5 ways. My hand is in front of me with a chip on it like always and when I finally say eff it and call the dealer is putting down the river (which is an 8).

Guy two to my right says that I waited to see the card before I called which is lol but he's an idiot and a donator so whatever but I hate that **** like that just casually gets thrown around


I was actually irritated by this and neglected to add a LC thought...river is a 3 so board is 54Q-2-3 but SB leads out and says "ace good" which I personally think is a 6 90% of the time and 76 the other 10. Do you pay off here?
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Old 01-14-2017, 04:15 PM   #174
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

First of all, the river coming out before you acted was on the dealer, not you.

Whether to call the river, you're probably beat (as you said), but how big is the pot exactly? Are you heads up? What was the action prior to that? Is the SB clever and observant enough to know that you have a fold button and be making a play?
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Old 01-14-2017, 06:02 PM   #175
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Re: 2017! NC/LC THREAD -- Small Stakes, 40 years to Mars

- IIRC the pot was ~11-12 BB, so pretty good sized.
- Button had bet the turn and everyone (at least 4 others, myself included) had called
- SB led into at least 4 players
- I sincerely doubt he has much of a line on my play specifically (not that I'm Mr. GTO, I'm obv not, he's just not paying that close of attention)
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