Five handed. First orbit, but the opponent has already been seen coldcalling two bets preflop with 43o in the small blind first in after a raise. He played his flopped two pair aggressively.

cutoff raises, button folds, I 3 bet AJo in the small blind, big blind folds, cutoff calls.

775

I bet, he calls.

7

I bet, he calls.

5

It's on me.

Seems like we've a good chance of folding a chop if we bet, IMO. Read is that he played his made hand aggressively, so it seems like naked overs are his most likely hand.

Right, and if I check then why should he pay me off when I have 66+? He shouldn't, but I think he's thinking "full house I call ldo" without considering that my range is packed with near nut full houses when I bet, so I want to make an exploitive check based on nothing more than speculation.

Exploit that he's never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever folding here, I assume?

Yes, but my sample in this game is small and I don't want him to start folding chops to my river bets because then my value range suffers a loss.

*g*

Why are you betting?

At gamespeed I checked the river, but later thought betting in the hopes of bluffing him off of a chop might have been better.

Why are you betting on any street, rather?

On the flop I figure to be ahead of his continuation range. Then when he just calls I expect to have the best hand a large % of the time, so when the third 7 falls, I value bet again expecting to be called by all ace highs and raised by full houses and perhaps some bluffs. The lack of a preflop 4 bet leads me to discount the dominating full houses, leaving mostly hands that I dominate in his calling range. The only hands I'm really afraid of him having on the turn are 99 and 88, and then if they raise, I'll be getting good odds to draw to the higher full house. I suppose he'll raise the case 7 sometimes, but I think that's also discounted because he didn't raise the flop.

If the river had been a 2, I would've bet again, expecting to have the best hand ~60% of the time.

Bad players *never* fold when they can play the full house/straight/flush on board. Best way to exploit this is to x/c, so we don't chance losing 2 BB on the river.

Rest of the hand looks fine. Against a tighter/trickier opponent, I'd at least consider checking turn.

Uh what.

A-hi on that turn = never folding
K-hi on that turn = could call.

That is such an easy value bet against many live opponents. I'd consider value betting some rivers as well.

These are wide assumptions. What are you doing when you get raised on the flop?

Making a super standard call down given our ranges, possibly folding on later streets if a player is low on bluffs or value hands we have equity against. You're not seriously advocating checking 775 against a live player with AJ, right? Because that's really bad.

I'm advocating that you consider what bet/calldowning AJ means regarding the rest of your 3! Range.

He's never folding and you're never folding so I'm pretty sure check/call loses the least.

The river seems like the least interesting/questionable spot in this hand. Anyway, I actually like hand as played so far.

I understand the idea about only betting the river when you can beat the board being exploitable, but this spot comes up so little. How often is there going to be a full house on board against this opponent? Maybe I'd worry about it against a good player whom I play with often. Otherwise, just check/call, because he is never folding.