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Old 02-06-2012, 06:50 PM   #1
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10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

10/20 half-kill at Brantford. Kill off. Time charge, so no rake. Kill is triggered on pots of >10BB.

Sunday afternoon game. This is a new table that opened recently. There's been a only a few orbits so far. I haven't played before today with either villain, but based on their chatter so far, they are regulars to the game.

UTG is a very loose passive and bad player.

MP1 is pretty loose so far, and cold-calls too often. He doesn't seem too tricky.

BTN seems TAG. I get the impression that he is somewhat solid, based on my limited number of hands with him. He's a mid-to-late-30s white guy wearing a hoodie and baseball hat.

IIRC, this is one of the first hands I've played.

Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with K K
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 3 folds, BTN calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.5 SB) K 6 5 (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, BTN raises, UTG folds, Hero 3!, MP1 calls, BTN calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, BTN calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 9 (3 players)
Hero...

This is a pretty standard spot, and my question would apply to basically any hand between TPGK up to top set.

The main options I debated in my head at game speed were b/f vs k/c, but I also wonder if b/c has merit.
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:17 PM   #2
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

You can't b/f, so it's c/c or b/c.

Against one person I'd bet. But for a bet to break even, you need to be good twice as often as you are check-raised (well, that's HU, but it may soon be). Notice that not only has the flush come in, but so have both ends of the straight. MP1 in particular has been playing passively, draw-like.

What hands that you beat are they calling with? It is a low board, with few 5s or 6s in their ranges, so there are not many 2nd pairs like Q or J that are calling down, which raises their proportion of draws that beat you. Stuff like Q9 with a diamond doesn't continue past turn. Even some of the A5 or A6 will fold because they're trying to improve, but haven't.

I think this is a check-call. If it were the A of diamonds, maybe it's a bet, because there are clingy aces that will call.

Last edited by Bill Haywood; 02-06-2012 at 07:24 PM.
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:25 PM   #3
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I'd start with betting, we have too big a hand to pass on value, no worse hands are betting here. Expect to win most the time when called (even in two spots). Straight forward players probably won't raise without the near nuts.
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:37 PM   #4
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

Yeah, just bet. Like Chasqui said, worse hands won't bet here, but they will often call. The flush draw got there, but there's no telling if they have it until you get popped.
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:35 PM   #5
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

Based your description of MP1, I would lean toward b/f if MP1 raises. Is c/c bad in this spot against two relative unknowns, or do u just lose too much value by not betting river and villains check thru river?
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:04 PM   #6
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Is c/c bad in this spot against two relative unknowns, or do u just lose too much value by not betting river and villains check thru river?
Let's see, we lose virtually every time we k/c here and don't make any money from pairs, sets, and two pairs when it checks around, leaving 2BB behind in some cases.

What do you think?
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:52 PM   #7
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

Makes sense Chasqui. Does this make it a b/f otr against two relative unknowns?
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:04 PM   #8
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

I would bet and would fold if (a) MP raises and BTN 3bets or (b) MP calls and BTN raises. I don't think that a TAGgy guy is going to try to bluffraise both an unknown and a bad, loose player in a big pot, so I think you can fold if he raises both of you because he's not bluffing and there are no worse hands he can really raise for value.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:11 PM   #9
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

I think there's an argument for check calling. They're still unknowns to me, so I'm not folding unless MP bets and BTN raises. I think BTN will bet a lot of pairs, 2 pairs, and sets, and MP could overcall with ****ty hands.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:30 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by _TKO_ View Post
10/20 half-kill at Brantford. Kill off. Time charge, so no rake. Kill is triggered on pots of >10BB.

Sunday afternoon game. This is a new table that opened recently. There's been a only a few orbits so far. I haven't played before today with either villain, but based on their chatter so far, they are regulars to the game.

UTG is a very loose passive and bad player.

MP1 is pretty loose so far, and cold-calls too often. He doesn't seem too tricky.

BTN seems TAG. I get the impression that he is somewhat solid, based on my limited number of hands with him. He's a mid-to-late-30s white guy wearing a hoodie and baseball hat.

IIRC, this is one of the first hands I've played.

Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with K K
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 3 folds, BTN calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.5 SB) K 6 5 (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, BTN raises, UTG folds, Hero 3!, MP1 calls, BTN calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, BTN calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 9 (3 players)
Hero...

This is a pretty standard spot, and my question would apply to basically any hand between TPGK up to top set.

The main options I debated in my head at game speed were b/f vs k/c, but I also wonder if b/c has merit.
Grunch

It would take a special read to fold here and I don't think your reads qualify (even for mp1 IMO) for such a laydown vs a raise from one of these guys. I'm b/c-ing.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:36 PM   #11
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

Make that two bets back to me and we can talk about hero laydowns but no not for one bet.
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:00 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob147 View Post
I think there's an argument for check calling
For there to be an argument about k/c someone will have to argue that position. Until then there is no argument

Go ahead, we are listening
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Old 02-07-2012, 08:55 AM   #13
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob147 View Post
I think BTN will bet a lot of pairs, 2 pairs, and sets, and MP could overcall with ****ty hands.
With a better read I could bet call, or bet fold. With only 1 orbit under our belt I play it safe and avoid lines that cause me to fold the winner.
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:50 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Chasqui View Post
Let's see, we lose virtually every time we k/c here and don't make any money from pairs, sets, and two pairs when it checks around, leaving 2BB behind in some cases.

What do you think?
If we lose every time we k/c, don't we also lose every time we b/c??
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Old 02-07-2012, 11:03 AM   #15
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Re: 10/20 - Hero flopped top set and is looking for a river value line (basic/standard)

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Originally Posted by SadDonkey View Post
Yeah, just bet. Like Chasqui said, worse hands won't bet here, but they will often call. The flush draw got there, but there's no telling if they have it until you get popped.
How is this not a standard bet/fold? You probably won't get raised by sets but checking this river 3 way is just ludicrous.
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