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Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
So anyway, let's think about this mathematically. If there are 3 limpers around to me and I'm on the button with AQo I'm raising that 100% of the time and probably getting the BB and limpers to call, so 10.5sb in the pot before we even see the flop. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that 3 people are going to call the flop, 2 the turn, and 0 the river (that DID happen several times at my table). That's 3 more small bets on the flop and 4 more small bets on the turn, so 17.5sb.
This can happen, and it does happen. But pay attention to the board texture and to your opponents. Are they calling that turn bet with a made hand? A draw? Overcards? All of those details matter.
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For me to triple-barrel and take the pot down, I'm going to need to put 5 more small bets into the pot. So if I can get everybody to fold 1 time in 4, 3 times I lose 5sb and 1 time I win 17.5sb.
Yes and no. There are spots where bluffing is +EV. But you won't know whether bluffing the turn/river is +EV until after the flop action. That's kind of the nature of these multiway pots. What fell on the turn? How many opponents are left in the pot? What are their tendencies?
Implicit collusion is the idea that there are so many other hands out there that someone is very likely to hit something and you aren't as likely to outrun the field. But there are times that it can make sense to fire the third barrel.
I bluffed KJs no pair on a raggedly low board in a 4/8 game once. I was in late position and raised a bunch of limpers. I flopped a flush draw on the low board, and got called in a few spots. The turn was a low brick (maybe even paired the board... I don't remember anymore), and fired again to get it down to heads up. I didn't hit anything on the river. He checked and I bet in tempo.
Then he tanked for a full minute before calling.
Me: "Your pair is good."
Him: "I don't have a pair."
Me: "Your ace-high is good."
Him: "I don't have an ace."
Me: <silent awkward pause -------------------------- table my hand>
Him: <Sheepishly turns over KQ>
The turn bet is debatable. Without the details, it's probably not resolvable. I think people do fold A-high there for me. I still have a pretty good amount of equity and even players folding Qx is good for me. But I'm not sure that's enough of a reason.
But I am fairly certain that my river bluff was profitable. It barely needs to work ever in a pot that size. I didn't go into that one with the plan of barreling off because randomly barreling off isn't profitable. The hand just played out in a way to make it reasonable. Pick your spots and hope you don't get called by better K-high hands.