Last week I was playing with a group of players who would limp pre with very wide ranges, call or even cold-call raises with mostly the same range, call the flop with just about anything, but give up on the turn or the river. It was difficult to get ranges because I was almost always the aggressor, so either I was barreling and they gave up, or I was barreling, ended up with the best hand and they mucked. But there were definitely times I tried to bluff the river and got called by 3rd pair.

There was one villain at the table who figured out what I was doing and was calling me down with hands as weak as ace-king high. I'm not sure how frequently I was getting the other villains to throw away 4th pair or worse.

So anyway, let's think about this mathematically. If there are 3 limpers around to me and I'm on the button with AQo I'm raising that 100% of the time and probably getting the BB and limpers to call, so 10.5sb in the pot before we even see the flop. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that 3 people are going to call the flop, 2 the turn, and 0 the river (that DID happen several times at my table). That's 3 more small bets on the flop and 4 more small bets on the turn, so 17.5sb.

For me to triple-barrel and take the pot down, I'm going to need to put 5 more small bets into the pot. So if I can get everybody to fold 1 time in 4, 3 times I lose 5sb and 1 time I win 17.5sb. Add to that the fact that I'm occasionally going to pair one of my overcards, and add to that the fact that when I *do* have a big hand nobody's going to believe me and are going to be more likely to call me down light, and it almost seems like a no-brainer.

I realize this is a very general post - I mean if the flop is 789tt, 3 players call me on the flop and the turn is a T which puts 3 to a flush on the board I'm probably giving up. But if the flop is J72r and the turn is a 5 which puts 2 to a flush on the board I'm probably barreling again.

The difficult spots are when I have AQo and the flop is something like K93r - these players typically don't raise a king, so I have know my enemies to know if I'm value-owning myself or if I have 3 outs vs. 6 (plus some of these players are so tight they wouldn't raise AK on any street so I could pair my A and still be behind).

SO I GUESS THE POINT IS THIS

Even in very loose games are there circumstances under which triple-barreling overcards to try to take down the pot can actually be profitable?

Hope that made sense
DTXCF

If you have an aggressive image and your opponents can recognize this, 3-barreling ace-high with a high frequency is lighting money on fire.

These opponents are likely already calling you down too lightly, so creating an image that gets unwanted calls, and then continuing to bluff at a high frequency doesn't seem like a great combination.

Using hands as bluffs that never fold out better is a disaster. If you're going to barrel K93, why not choose JT of something that actually stands to benefit?

This is the right way to approach the problem. Now all you have to do is calculate the probability of one of the 5 people who saw the flop flopping and pair and calling you down.

This can happen, and it does happen. But pay attention to the board texture and to your opponents. Are they calling that turn bet with a made hand? A draw? Overcards? All of those details matter.

Yes and no. There are spots where bluffing is +EV. But you won't know whether bluffing the turn/river is +EV until after the flop action. That's kind of the nature of these multiway pots. What fell on the turn? How many opponents are left in the pot? What are their tendencies?

Implicit collusion is the idea that there are so many other hands out there that someone is very likely to hit something and you aren't as likely to outrun the field. But there are times that it can make sense to fire the third barrel.

I bluffed KJs no pair on a raggedly low board in a 4/8 game once. I was in late position and raised a bunch of limpers. I flopped a flush draw on the low board, and got called in a few spots. The turn was a low brick (maybe even paired the board... I don't remember anymore), and fired again to get it down to heads up. I didn't hit anything on the river. He checked and I bet in tempo.

Then he tanked for a full minute before calling.

Me: "Your pair is good."
Him: "I don't have a pair."
Me: "Your ace-high is good."
Him: "I don't have an ace."
Me: <silent awkward pause -------------------------- table my hand>
Him: <Sheepishly turns over KQ>

The turn bet is debatable. Without the details, it's probably not resolvable. I think people do fold A-high there for me. I still have a pretty good amount of equity and even players folding Qx is good for me. But I'm not sure that's enough of a reason.

But I am fairly certain that my river bluff was profitable. It barely needs to work ever in a pot that size. I didn't go into that one with the plan of barreling off because randomly barreling off isn't profitable. The hand just played out in a way to make it reasonable. Pick your spots and hope you don't get called by better K-high hands.

In low limits there are players that will barrel flop/turn/river against any number of opponents, if they raised pre-flop. There are also players that will call down with any pair or even A/K high. Against players that triple-barrel all the time, calling down light may be profitable.

In very loose low limits games I doubt that triple barrelling all the time would be profitable. In selective spots against the right opponents it might be profitable, but it needs to be against opponents that are capable of folding the river. If you do triple barrel and someone calls your bluff, I would not do it again in that session.

One thing to consider is that getting caught making this kind of bluff may get you more light callers on the turn and river for a while.

[QUOTE=mikeca;52210470]In low limits there are players that will barrel flop/turn/river against any number of opponents, if they raised pre-flop. There are also players that will call down with any pair or even A/K high. Against players that triple-barrel all the time, calling down light may be profitable.

Kinda goes without saying or my fav..A DUH! The trick is being able to identify who is who and adjust appropriately!

[B]In very loose low limits games I doubt that triple barrelling all the time would be profitable.

In what game, 2/4, 4/8, 10/20, 100/200 would triple barrelling ALL THE TIME be profitable?

In selective spots against the right opponents it might be profitable, but it needs to be against opponents that are capable of folding the river.

Umm sounds like something I've said previously..


If you do triple barrel and someone calls your bluff, I would not do it again in that session.

Why not? If the situation is right! (ex. an hour later and you've torched same guy a couple of times with the nuts and have been catching cards in general...you raise AK, dry board with no aggression..DO IT AGAIN!)


One thing to consider is that getting caught making this kind of bluff may get you more light callers on the turn and river for a while.[/QUOTE]

What he said, now play off that image, but only against the people who are paying attention..you need to know who is who!

In selective spots against the right opponents it might be profitable, but it needs to be against opponents that are capable of folding the river.

Umm sounds like something I've said previously..thought I posted something about bluffing in here...read .."who to bluff" same applies to getting called by 3rd pair comment..read "who to bluff"