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Originally Posted by gr26
i didnt say he bets/raises at every oppotunity. He's very agressive with initiative (2conbets with ace hi on almost all kind of boards; he could keep betting river with missed draw; also he insta raises flopped draws and 3d pair on safe flops etc)
But you have a straight that only loses to a specific two card straight that has low cards against a guy that has been the aggressor the whole hand. Donk-call is playing way too scared.
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Yes, because i have reevaluated my hand on the river.
I put it wrong: ace high on J-3-2-6-4 not on J-3-2-6-Q.
Heh the K is much scarier card for them than Q (people play more kings and they feel it subconsciously). I would never bet K5 on J-3-2-6-Q trying to kick out ace high. Maybe it's just illusion. He could call sometimes if Q on the river (for example with AK or А4-А5 "ace that wanted to insta check behind+missed gutshot are facing a donk" tilt moment).
I'm clearly not going to convince you that your line is all over the place, but it's all over the place. Your reads appear to be skewed in a way that looks to be optimistically favorable to you in that he plays in exactly the right ways to make your moves the right moves.
He "insta raises" bottom pair and draws on the flop. You're "sure" that he's going to c-bet 80% on the turn and there's a "big chance" he's doing that 100%. But on the river, he's predictable enough that you would fold second pair to a raise in a big pot.
You really need to go back to that turn decision and do a deep analysis. Write down your assumptions about how we would respond to various conditions*, then look at the hand range and plot out what percent of the time you end up where. Look at the equity calculations and see if it actually makes sense. (* Also check for consistency of internal logic.)
My suspicion is that even in the most optimistic assumptions (like what you've stated above), you're going to be *barely* +EV. And if you're *barely* +EV under optimistic assumptions, then realistically you're making a -EV play check-calling the turn.
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I'm not a math guy. I cant count the number of combinations of certain hands in 10-15 secs and calculate the equity against them. I just think a little after the session about certain hands to have some common ideas
You don't get better by not doing the work. Using the "not a math guy" excuse doesn't help you in the long run. Just thinking ahead enough to say "I can bluff on a king" (regardless of whether it's a strategically sound idea) is a step in the right direction. The way your posts read, you had one plan on the turn and another plan on the river. That's really not a good strategy.
Last edited by Aaron W.; 05-09-2017 at 11:44 AM.