Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle
I would never raise here. Also, to do so would t be to clean up ours, I would be to get players with equity to fold.
I don't think I would raise here either. But is there a difference between cleaning up outs and getting players with equity to fold? I don't think so.
Looking at the quasi-math, OP is getting 9-1 on his 2 overs + gunshot + BDF draw. So, OP is not folding. Let's say OP has 11 outs (3Ks, 3Qs, 4Js + 1out for the BDF). So if OP raises, at 4.5-1 plus implied odds, the raise is still +EV (a raise for value). BUT, OPs 3Ks and 3Qs may not be clean outs. Donking Villain could have flopped a set, or two pair, one pair with K or Q as Villain's current kicker, and in some SSHE games, Villain can be holding AA, KK, QQ, or JJ (among other possibilities). Now, 8 outs looks pretty generous with a strong likelihood that OP is far behind. At 9:1, OP is in. At 4.5:1, not good (card odds are 47:8 or jut about 6:1).
So, should OP bet to protect even if it is not +EV to do so on this play? This seems to be the basic divide between those who more frequently favor hand protection and those who do not. The argument goes that +EV is +EV and -EV is -EV, regardless of "hand protection". Miller acknowledges this argument but maintains that making a play that is not maximum +EV on one street is ok if it sufficiently increases EV on a later street. But if OP is betting from behind Villain, can OP possibly make up enough EV later from getting the other players to cold call 2 or fold. If a player other than Villain cold calls and OP is behind Villain, not much has changed other than OP and Villain sharing any value error made in the cold call (with Villain getting the lion's share). That hardly seems like enough to make up for a -EV bet now by OP. If the other players would fold a better hand, that would be a good thing, but how much more likely are they to fold to a bet now as compared to a bet on the turn?
In OP's shoes, I call. If a remaining player folds to a 10 or 11:1 bet, that's almost certainly +EV for OP and a very possible outcome in SSHE games. If the other players, like OP, peel and miss on the turn, it's easy fold time for all. If OP hits on the turn, a raise by OP (or even a bet if Villain checks) is most likely to get the two non-Villains to fold (assuming they checked to the Villain). And Villain's response to OP's play whether a bet or a raise is likely to greatly narrow Villain's range and make OP's decisions much easier from that point forward.
At least that's how I see it......