Quote:
Originally Posted by Ctocco55
UTG limps (he has been pretty tight and I've only seen him play about 4-5 hands the last couple hours)
A small thing to think about, this is half of the read you need. It could be you don't have the other information, but knowing passive vs aggressive matters. Even in the Vegas 20/40 games, you'll see regs limp hands like ATo plus or minus a pip. They're taking hands they probably should raise (or fold) and limping because they prefer that to folding and they're not quite good enough to raise correctly.
If this guy has any aggression, could he even have AK? Most people know to raise hands this strong. He's played 4-5 hands, were they all limped and cold-called or did he show some aggression? Did you see any hands shown down and were they played passively, correctly, or over-aggressively?
Quote:
but 2 hours just isn't enough
There are ways beyond pure hours to know things better. If you see a guy limp JJ and AK under the gun and then explain to his neighbors "I hate to put in money before I know if I have top pair", you know stuff. Same with him missing clear value raises with 2 pair or TPTK. Totally agree that knowing someone played 5 hands out of 60 isn't enough to hero fold, but our OP should really look for the context of the villain's play and how the villain thinks about poker. It isn't a matter of having 100 hours as much as the right clues.
Quote:
I know I have great pot odds to call but I really felt this was the correct decision to make.
The way to come to this decision (as others have said) is to think about the frequency of all the hands he could have, and decide you're getting the wrong price.
Quote:
I have I put him on QJ 55 or 77.
If you believe your read that he plays 8% of his hands, how many of these hands would be in his UTG range? To me, the key question would be thinking about how the villain would play AQ and KQ, because there are tons of combos of those. Then I'd consider QT, JT, J7, and Q7 combos. I'd also wonder about 2 street slowplays of flopped sets, because if he's turn raising all his baby sets we can take them out of our count.
Once I have an idea about a guess for his preflop range, how he'd play those hands on the flop and turn, I could come to the river and think about how many hands I beat vs. how many beat me. Are we getting the right price? Listing 3 hands that beat you and saying "this is a clear fold" is only part of this process.