first off, i know there'll be a few comments about "who cares" bla bla bla.. I know, so does everyone else... so there.
I'm hoping this will serve as a wake up call & a kind of starting point for improving my game even more.
... turns out i've been running well consistently for a while & basically, its equally likely that i can run as bad... which i'd like to minimize as much as possible (by getting better).
This year, by some measures, i'm over 500 BBs above the street-by-street EV. I've had a kind of so-so month and it lead me to look and see how lucky i've been in the last while in case I've been just running well & shouldn't expect it to continue. Here's the results.(odds of 1:~5020 against).
I know this isnt the typical statistic type question, but heres my thoughts:
1) i'll try to rationalize why its "expected" for my luck to appear so high... and this seems on the face of it to be a BS rationalization.
2) even if i realize that omg i've been pretty lucky this year (supposing that its true), i'm still going to be a huge wuss when the sick 500 BB -EV swing comes crushing in.
3) i'm wondering what can i do to improve my game even more, because clearly I'm not as good as i thought i was. I post, i do reviews monthly, grunches etc etc... & I rly cant go investing in training sites either.