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Old 05-21-2008, 02:51 AM   #1
Aaron W.
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A little challenge for the newer posters

At the beginning of the summer, there is often an influx of new posters. A quick glance at the recent activity in here suggests that this summer is no different. It seems like a good time to try this sort of thread.

I ask that the vets not to answer the questions, but to respond to the ideas put forth by the newer posters. The purpose for you guys is not to steer the posters towards one answer or the other, but to reveal errors of reasoning.

Villain is a multi-tabler. Tonight is the first time I've seen him, and I only have a few dozen hands on him at the time of the hand. His play exhibits a lot of standard TAGgish features such as not openlimping and c-betting flops with a high frequency. His stats are 25/20ish in the early going, which is are pretty standard TAGgy numbers to have. Up to this point, I have no further specific information about his play, and in particular I know essentially nothing about his play on the big streets.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A J
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps!, Hero calls

Flop: (8.5 SB) 8 A 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls

Turn: (5.25 BB) J (2 players)
Hero donks or check-raises?

The purpose here is not to come up with a 1-2 sentence answer for what you would do. The challenge is to articulate a clear set of reasons as to why the play you have chosen is better than the other possibilities. You should write up your answer BEFORE you read the others.

Here are some features that I would like to see included in your reasoning:

1) A hand range for villain
2) An analysis of both lines (EV calculations are good)
3) A list of factors that might influence your decision, and whether those factors make you more or less inclined to play the way you have chosen. In particular, how varying the playing tendencies of the multitabling TAG affects your thinking.

As for the preflop 3-bet, if you want to argue for or against it, go ahead. I'm more interested in the turn play.
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Old 05-21-2008, 04:27 AM   #2
SkyyCaptain
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Well my Join date may tell a different story, but given my activity and understanding of the game I'd lump myself into the newer poster group.

GRUNCH.

1>Hand range: 88+, QJs+, for his initial raise I gave him top ~10% of hands. He's UTG and I expect his hand range to be tighter than the 20% PT puts him at. A multitabling Tag might raise even less UTG even 6max. KQo and KJs are probably "safer" for a multitabler.

Given the Cap I'd narrow it further because he's not trying to narrow the field, this is definitely a value bet. AJs + KQo+ JJ+.

Flop bet tells us nothing we didn't already know, so we'll stick with this range at hand but the turn breaks all possible AJs combos. If he's got AJ its unsuited.

2>
Given this range there are
8 AQ's
8 AK's
16 KQ's
1 AA
1 JJ
6 KK
6 QQ
46 hands.

We're ahead of thevast majority of it.

There are 16 possible aces which will are the hands we'd want to donk into. They'd most likely raise us and let us get in a three-bet. They probably only call our CR but may give us a chance to cap.

There are 16 KQ's which we probably don't get anything more out of if we
bet, but do we want to give them free cards? THey probably fold out, but about 10% of the time we're unhappy when we stare down a river 10.

There are 2 sets we're going to pay off at showdown. They raise our donk, and 3bet our CR.

There are 12 underpairs to the A. These call down when we donk rather than raise. With no knowledge of his post flop play I'd say 50-50 he checks behind rather than bet out. And that he calls down (mostly to simplify math)

Given the idea that the 2 underpairs call down with the rest of the crowd I calculate EV ~1.87 bets for a donk out.

Given the possibility that KQ draws out I get ~1.18 bets

IMO the donk out wins a lot more, particularly from the better aces (excluding AA). since it also protects from KQ.

3>Gah, so many! Mostly more history would be good. A multitabler is probably a long term winner so I expect more solid play. How observant he is would matter. If he's seen me make a similar play before then maybe I don't want to opt for the donk.
A better definition of his starting range since mine is pretty narrow. I made it this narrow because he capped, but maybe he's less of a TAG than I thought. 6M is the LAG's environ and our analysis may be a little skewed from lack of hand history. Maybe he's had a cold streak and has been playing fewer hands than normal.
The chance he 2 barrels on a bluff would greatly affect the calculation on the CR. How he likes to play TP hands would tell me how effective donking out would be. If AK suddenly switches gears and calls down when I bet out (i.e. he's decided that he wants 1 bet each street with TP).
My assumption that he calls down with KK/QQ could also be very wrong. If he respects our donk (unlikely but possible) then we've lost value, but if he'd have called our donk on 2 streets and folds to our CR we've again, lost value. Knowing how he plays a big pair to an Acey board would help a lot too.

Any more? probably but these are the ones I went through over the course of writing this post.
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Old 05-21-2008, 06:51 AM   #3
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

I think I am addressed by this thread so I go ahead and answer it.
Villain raised UTG and capped a BB reraise, which seems to be a strong play. His range obviously contains JJ+, AQs+ and AKo, but as whe don't know him that well his range could include more hands, for example TT, AQo, AJs or KQs, maybe even more hands.
On the turn I would try to c/r. I think a tag like this will bet almost every hand in his range. Of course he bets every Ace, but he will most likely also bet every pocketpair and check them behind on the river if he is called.
The only hands his range includes and he might check behind are KQ and pocketpairs TT and maybe lower ones if he would play them like he did.
We are only behind to AA and JJ, but only 1 combo of them could be out there, We tie AJ, which is not that likely. We beat all the other hands in his range.
I think if we donk, he will call with KK, QQ and maybe even TT, because tags have problems with throwing away high pocketpairs, he will call down and hope we don't have an Ace. If he has an ace, he might raise our donkbet, but he might also just calldown fearing we have him beat. He will most likely fold KQ, unless he has a flushdraw.
If we check, he will bet almost his entire range, allowing us to raise and make him pay 2 bets instead of one if we donk. When we raise, he will at least call all his aces, maybe he even calls with KK and QQ, having a hard time to fold these hands.
I further think if we are raised on the turn we should call down. He would raise the hands that beat us, but he could also raise AK or AQ, espiacially if he has a flushdraw.

So my play would be to c/r the turn and lead the river, but calldown if we are raised anywhere.
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Old 05-21-2008, 10:57 AM   #4
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

1) A hand range for villain

Well, a 25/20 TAG is going to be raising a pretty wide range of hands pre-flop (20% ). However, against this we have to weigh the facts that firstly he is raising UTG and secondly he caps hero's 3bet. This likely indicates that he is raising for value although we have to keep in mind that it may also simply be to try to keep the initiative.

This should enable us to narrow the range somewhat. I would have said 88-AA, ATs-AKs, KQs, AK, and maybe AQ.

2) Donk or check-raise the turn - An analysis of both lines (EV calculations are good)

We know from the read provided that villain will frequently c-bet the flop. We do not know how likey he is to fire the second barrel on the turn if he is still unimproved or is concerned by an overcard.

Based on the suggested range for villain we're behind : AA, JJ, 88, we tie with AJ and we're ahead of the rest. We would appear to be well ahead of his range (in fact, PokerStove puts our equity at 84%).

Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,244 games 0.005 secs 448,800 games/sec

Board: 8d As 6s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.002% 84.00% 00.00% 1885 0.00 { AhJc }
Hand 1: 15.998% 16.00% 00.00% 359 0.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
For donking : We avoid having the turn checked through and therefore missing value when we are likely ahead (we don't know how likely villain is to fire again on the turn). We also get the chance to 3bet (Although I'm not convinced that I actually would). Villain may have bet KK on the flop but having been called he may check behind the turn and call a river bet (value check?).

For check-raising : We get the opportunity to potentially gain 2BBs on the turn rather than 1BB if we donk.

I lean towards a donk bet.

3) A list of factors that might influence your decision, and whether those factors make you more or less inclined to play the way you have chosen. In particular, how varying the playing tendencies of the multitabling TAG affects your thinking.

* What is villain's post-flop aggression like? Will he slowdown with TPTK or just keep firing? Will he fire the second barrel on the turn? Will he fold an underpair like KK/QQ if we check-raise the turn or will he calldown?

* How many tables does villain multi-table? (Is he paying attention to our play or is he on auto-pilot?)

Caveat : I don't play 6-max

Confession : I'm not sure that I know how to do an EV calculation of the two turn scenarios. Time to re-visit the text books!
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Old 05-21-2008, 11:29 AM   #5
C. D. Spuckler
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

*** GRUNCH ***

I'll have a go. Great idea.

Although I play 0.02/0.04, I think that a donk bet is the way to go because you are likely ahead and want to extract as much value as possible. A check-raise will probably only get you one bet as A multi-table TAG will likely fold. In contrast, a donk bet will likely get a call on the turn and another on the river when you lead out. At 0.02/0.04, I check-raise because they are more inclined to call in response to aggression (He raised me.. I'll show him)

I put villains range at AT+, based on stats coming in UTG. I also think that a set (88 or 66) is unlikely because of the preflop cap, but if he does have a set, bless his heart.
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Old 05-21-2008, 12:50 PM   #6
Aaron W.
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Sky -

Very good. You have a highly methodical method.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyyCaptain View Post
There are 16 possible aces which will are the hands we'd want to donk into. They'd most likely raise us and let us get in a three-bet. They probably only call our CR but may give us a chance to cap.

There are 16 KQ's which we probably don't get anything more out of if we
bet, but do we want to give them free cards? THey probably fold out, but about 10% of the time we're unhappy when we stare down a river 10.

There are 2 sets we're going to pay off at showdown. They raise our donk, and 3bet our CR.

There are 12 underpairs to the A. These call down when we donk rather than raise. With no knowledge of his post flop play I'd say 50-50 he checks behind rather than bet out. And that he calls down (mostly to simplify math)

Given the idea that the 2 underpairs call down with the rest of the crowd I calculate EV ~1.87 bets for a donk out.

Given the possibility that KQ draws out I get ~1.18 bets
How did you get those EV values?

Quote:
3>Gah, so many! Mostly more history would be good. A multitabler is probably a long term winner so I expect more solid play.
What do you mean by "solid" play? Do you mean "tough/tricky" or "straight-forward/good"?
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Old 05-21-2008, 01:01 PM   #7
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
Sky -

Very good. You have a highly methodical method.



How did you get those EV values?



What do you mean by "solid" play? Do you mean "tough/tricky" or "straight-forward/good"?

EV is based on the ratio of hands to the total number of hands in the range
# / 46 * number of Bets I expect to win for that hand group. - the number I expect to lose for that hand group (usually one or the other)
I could've gotten even more specific by subtracting suckouts, adding redraws etc, but since the calls from 1 pair hands were guestimates I figured ignoring details like this isn't too big a sin. I feel that despite it being imperfect math, since one was a solid favorite over the other, it would still be a solid fav.

If you like I could go through the whole process verbatim but that's likely too much math for this thread. I could post an addendum thread somehwhere with a similar Ev calculation if you like. These are Sklansky/Harrington/Caro esque. Guys who put a lot more math into their poker than you can at a table. Still putting that math in off the felt helps your game on.

Its near impossible to do this on the fly (too much math) but its great practice at home for future scenarios so that you can make pretty good guesses at the table.
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Old 05-21-2008, 01:45 PM   #8
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

I'd c/r the turn.

I'll put villains pf capping range on 88+, AQ+. I'm not sure if this is a reasonable range for 6 max, but he's got it HU and he's IP against hero.

If that's his range, we're usually WA/WB on the flop, but when the J hits on the turn, we're WA of almost his entire range, trailing only one combo of AA, one of JJ, and 3 of 88. We're also not WA of AK and AQ, tho we are ahead. There are 38 other combos in his range (AK, AQ 7 apiece, KK, QQ, TT, and 99, 6 apiece).

The flop c-bet told us nothing about villain's range since you'd expect any aggressive villain to c-bet this flop when checked to.

If we donk the flop, he may very well dump KK, QQ, TT, and 99 (24 combos) and probably calls with AK/AQ (16 combos), and raises us with the 5 combos that beat us, AA, JJ,or 88.

If we c/r, he may still dump those same 24 combos, but we'll have gotten at least one bet from him in the meantime. A 3bet would be big trouble here, but I'd call and then c/c river w/o any other information.

The risk with c/r is that we check to him and he checks behind, and then c/f river UI. He's probably wondering what we'd 3! him with pf and then smooth call the flop with that he's still beating. But any combo of AK/AQ bets turn, and, if he's standard taggish, many other hands will, too. So I'm not too worried here about him checking behind.

Even if I knew that he wouldn't bet the turn with something less than Ax (or JJ/88 obv), I wouldn't donk the turn, as if he's worried he's behind with these hands, I don't expect him to call a donk with them, either.
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Old 05-21-2008, 02:31 PM   #9
Aaron W.
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Quote:
Originally Posted by derwipok View Post
I further think if we are raised on the turn we should call down. He would raise the hands that beat us, but he could also raise AK or AQ, espiacially if he has a flushdraw.
What is the ratio of "hands that beat us" to potential "AK or AQ" hands? What if you only allowed AK/AQ with a flush draw to raise?
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Old 05-21-2008, 03:01 PM   #10
Aaron W.
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richie(UK) View Post
For donking : We avoid having the turn checked through and therefore missing value when we are likely ahead (we don't know how likely villain is to fire again on the turn). We also get the chance to 3bet (Although I'm not convinced that I actually would). Villain may have bet KK on the flop but having been called he may check behind the turn and call a river bet (value check?).
Are you saying that we should not bet/3-bet? Or are you making a more personal "I have a hard time 3-betting"?

Quote:
Confession : I'm not sure that I know how to do an EV calculation of the two turn scenarios. Time to re-visit the text books!
If I remember right, Weighing the Odds (King Yao) has a lot of EV calculations. I suggest going through that one slowly to learn how to do them.
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Old 05-21-2008, 03:04 PM   #11
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyyCaptain View Post
EV is based on the ratio of hands to the total number of hands in the range
# / 46 * number of Bets I expect to win for that hand group. - the number I expect to lose for that hand group (usually one or the other)
Nah, you don't need to write it all out. I just wanted to confirm that you were using the right methods.
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Old 05-21-2008, 04:00 PM   #12
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

grunch

If you donk and he calls down you win 2 bets. If you c/r and he calls down you win 3 bets. But if you c/r and he folds you only gain 1 bet. I'm going to suggest a different line c/c the turn c/r any non Q or K rivers. You still win 3 bets from all Ax hands but you also get an extra bet out of KK or QQ. I don't know how likely it is he fires the third barrel with QQ or KK but because you didn't raise the flop or turn he might try and squeeze value from a smaller pp trying to get to showdown.
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Old 05-21-2008, 04:04 PM   #13
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

I'm new, I want to play. Edit: my, this is long and boring.

I give UTG a fairly tight range once he caps PF, since the pot is HU by the time the action rolls around to him so he doesn't have to face anyone with 2 bets: JJ+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs. He might be a little wilder than that, but based on our information he's not going to be very much wilder.

Against this range, we're a massive favorite on the turn (86% vs. villain). What I'm worried about now is whether villain is planning to check behind with a flush draw, big underpair, or the KQ gutshot.

QQ: 9
KK: 9
KQo and KQs in hearts / clubs: 14

Those are hands more likely to check the turn. The KQs in spades and diamonds may bet/call the turn or take a free card, it's hard to say which one without knowing this player's tendencies, so let's just put one draw in the likely check-behind set and the other in the bet-turn set.

AA: 1
AK: 8
AQ: 8
AJs: 0 (there's no combination of AJs for villain to have with this board and our hand)
JJ: 1

These hands are likely to bet the turn for value, allowing us to check-raise. So far, we're at 27 checking hands and 19 betting hands. However, of the 27 checking hands, our TAG may continue on the turn some portion of the time, since we could have been peeling with middle pair or calling on the flush draw ourselves. If he turn c-bets 25% of his checking hands, we're now at 20 checking hands and 26 betting hands, meaning he'll bet the turn when checked to a little over half the time. I think he's more likely to continue closer to 50% of these hands, meaning he checks 14 hands or 30% of the time and bets the rest.

He's never checking a hand that beats us, so when he checks behind, we've clearly lost a bet. When he bets and we check-raise, he likely folds the gutshot KQ every time (14/46), and KK/QQ some portion of the time, let's say a quarter of those hands (4/46). He always 3-bets the hands that beat us, AA/JJ (2/46), and 3-bets AK/AQ a small fraction of the time, let's say one of each (2/46). When he 3-bets, we always call. He calls our check-raise with all remaining hands (10/46).

check behind: 14 (30%), bet/fold: 18 (39%), bet/call: 10 (23%), bet/3-bet [win]: 2 (4%), bet/3-bet [lose]: 2 (4%).

If we donk the turn, he calls with KK, QQ, the KQ flush draws, half of the AK/AQ hands, and a quarter of the KQ gutshots-only (25). He raises with AA, JJ, and the other half of the AK/AQ hands; he calls with the other half of the AK/AQ hands (8). When he raises, we always 3-bet, and he caps with AA/JJ (2) and calls with the rest (8). When he caps, we're always losing. He open-folds the other KQ gutshots (11).

fold: 11 (24%), call: 25 (55%), raise/call: 8 (17%), raise/cap: 2 (4%)

It is at this point that my mathematical errors are plain to see, so while you chuckle, my conclusions:

If we go for a check-raise, we get 1 or 2 bets in when we're ahead 62% of the time, and miss a bet 30% of the time. If we donk, we get 1 or 3 bets in 72% of the time and force a fold 24% of the time, but virtually all of that 24% was checking behind the turn anyway. Even though there's a small chance of getting capped while drawing nearly dead, we get more money in more of the time when ahead by donking the turn.

Now you get to tell me how dumb I am, whee!

Last edited by Randil; 05-21-2008 at 04:06 PM. Reason: immediate mathematical errors identified, keptin!
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Old 05-21-2008, 06:09 PM   #14
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
What is the ratio of "hands that beat us" to potential "AK or AQ" hands? What if you only allowed AK/AQ with a flush draw to raise?
According to my post there is 1 combo of each AA and JJ, so 2 combos beat us. There are 8 combos of each AK and AQ, so 16 combos we are ahead of. The ratio is 1:8, there are way more hands we beat than hands that beat us, so this would make it a cap.
If only AKss and AQss raise us, the ratio of hands that beat us and hands we are ahead of is 1:1, which makes it a calldown, especially considering that we have only 2 outs against JJ and 0 outs against AA, but the AKdd and AQdd have all the flush and the two pair outs.
Considering all the arguments I tend to calldown a 3-bet. We don't know if he would raise AQ or AK, because a c/r on the turn is a very strong play and villain should be afraid of that. In addition to that we have way fewer outs if behind than vilain if he is behind. But we clearly can't fold our 2 pair here, so a calldown seems right.
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Old 05-21-2008, 11:40 PM   #15
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

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As for the preflop 3-bet, if you want to argue for or against it, go ahead. I'm more interested in the turn play.
Spoiler:
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Old 05-22-2008, 12:33 AM   #16
Aaron W.
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

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Spoiler:
Spoiler:

Last edited by Aaron W.; 05-22-2008 at 12:33 AM. Reason: Mis-spoil
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Old 05-22-2008, 12:54 AM   #17
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randil View Post
Against this range, we're a massive favorite on the turn (86% vs. villain). What I'm worried about now is whether villain is planning to check behind with a flush draw, big underpair, or the KQ gutshot.

QQ: 9
KK: 9

KQo and KQs in hearts / clubs: 14
Check these.

Quote:
These hands are likely to bet the turn for value, allowing us to check-raise. So far, we're at 27 checking hands and 19 betting hands. However, of the 27 checking hands, our TAG may continue on the turn some portion of the time, since we could have been peeling with middle pair or calling on the flush draw ourselves. If he turn c-bets 25% of his checking hands, we're now at 20 checking hands and 26 betting hands, meaning he'll bet the turn when checked to a little over half the time. I think he's more likely to continue closer to 50% of these hands, meaning he checks 14 hands or 30% of the time and bets the rest.
I like this. Varying parameters like this helps you to get a sense of how confident you should be that you are right. If you tweak it slightly and get a different result, then you know that it's a very borderline situation (with respect to this variable).

Quote:
If we go for a check-raise, we get 1 or 2 bets in when we're ahead 62% of the time, and miss a bet 30% of the time. If we donk, we get 1 or 3 bets in 72% of the time and force a fold 24% of the time, but virtually all of that 24% was checking behind the turn anyway. Even though there's a small chance of getting capped while drawing nearly dead, we get more money in more of the time when ahead by donking the turn.
This part can be done a little more carefully. When we check-raise, why do we only get 1 or 2 bets when we're ahead? Against AK, we will usually get 3 bets (2 on the turn, 1 on the river). Did I misread something?
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Old 05-22-2008, 11:35 AM   #18
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

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Title: A little challenge for newer posters
Hence the spoiler tags.
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Old 05-22-2008, 12:57 PM   #19
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

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Check these.
Why do those say 9, when I clearly meant 6? Anyway, my hand counts later should indicate that I was counting 6 hands of QQ and KK each, not 9.

Quote:
I like this. Varying parameters like this helps you to get a sense of how confident you should be that you are right. If you tweak it slightly and get a different result, then you know that it's a very borderline situation (with respect to this variable).
The main variable being the fairly obvious one: the more likely villain is to bet the turn after our check, the more profitable a check-raise play becomes. I have our villain checking behind just the longshot KQ hands with no flush draw; if he's likely to bet some portion of these hands, even if he bet/folds, a check-raise becomes the clearly better play.

Quote:
This part can be done a little more carefully. When we check-raise, why do we only get 1 or 2 bets when we're ahead? Against AK, we will usually get 3 bets (2 on the turn, 1 on the river). Did I misread something?
Not as such, just that I was analyzing the turn decision without respect to river betting, because that's a whole other essay. In general, we'll get 1 bet on the river against most hands and with most river cards, either because we're calling him down or he's calling us down. If 2 bets go in on the river though, it's almost certainly because villain has outdrawn us, and we'll lose those bets. But to simplify, since the vast majority of the time the river is a 1-bet street, you can add one extra bet for all the hands that would call turn and river.
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Old 05-22-2008, 01:04 PM   #20
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Aaron…..

Villian is a 20/25 multi-tabler so I am assuming that his UTG PF capping range is probably tight I’m going to say he opens with the following for a raise 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,Kqo . His capping range is probably disgustingly tight. Something like 99+,AQs+,Ako.

Your 3bet pf is standard…… I also call the flop here no reason to bloat the pot more if you are indeed behind after his CAP. I am more inclined to say that you got really lucky on the turn and should probably go for the check raise to maximize the value of your hand. Because you say you know little about him other than some HUD stats my play is to c/r turn and call down if he does 3barrell turn. He could be very coordinated with his game PF from those stats but he could also play the latter streets horribly. Meaning that he may have a tendency to spew with KK or QQ here. I see a lot of tags who run into that same problem on A high boards.

I don’t like donking when the pot is large unless I’ve made a big hand on a board where I think villain will raise me and I can get an extra bet in.

Anyway what are you doing still playing .50/1 games with 9k posts and 6 years of 2plus2 experience? Move up and get out of the rake trap man. With your kind of articulate thinking process you should be able to exploit the mult-tabling NITs of the 5/10 + 6max world.
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Old 05-22-2008, 03:44 PM   #21
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
Are you saying that we should not bet/3-bet? Or are you making a more personal "I have a hard time 3-betting"?
I'm saying that a donk from us on the turn is a fairly strong move given the texture of the board and the fact that he capped pre-flop UTG - so a raise further defines his likely range and reduces the chances that we are ahead. I'd be more inclined to 3bet if we had a read on his post-flop play that suggested that he would play AK like this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
If I remember right, Weighing the Odds (King Yao) has a lot of EV calculations. I suggest going through that one slowly to learn how to do them.
Thanks, I'll retrieve that one from the bookshelf and re-visit the relevant section(s).
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Old 05-22-2008, 10:36 PM   #22
Aaron W.
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

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Originally Posted by marchron View Post
Hence the spoiler tags.
Sorry, you missed the intended meaning. Discussing this preflop decision in depth is much more than a little challenge (hence, dicey).
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Old 05-22-2008, 10:54 PM   #23
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

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Sorry, you missed the intended meaning. Discussing this preflop decision in depth is much more than a little challenge (hence, dicey).
Preflop pretty much sucks, no secrets there
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Old 05-22-2008, 11:10 PM   #24
Aaron W.
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Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

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Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A J
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps!, Hero calls

Flop: (8.5 SB) 8 A 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls

Turn: (5.25 BB) J (2 players)
Hero donks or check-raises?
During the hand, I decided that I would donk the turn. The two primary factors in my decision was the chance for the 3-bet if he raises with AK/AQ and to prevent KK/QQ from checking behind to get to showdown for one bet.

As far as which play is better... it depends on what you assume about your opponent. I think reasonable arguments can be made both ways, simply depending on what you think a generic-looking 25/20 TAG will do.

Getting a bet/3-bet in is great, and you should be on the lookout for players who will raise the turn with top pair hands as you can extract a lot of extra value out of them when you catch two pair/trips on the turn. This is a huge implied odds situation as you can now peel flops a lot more lightly, expecting to get a lot of extra bets on the turn (1 SB call -> 2-3 BB on the turn, depending on just how much he will overplay his top pair).

Against more passive players, donking will do much better as they won't bet their PPs often enough for you to make up for it with check-raises. Players who do this too often will also allow you to peel flops a little more loosely, as you can sometimes get two cards for your 1 SB instead of just one. Players who check the turn often will also give you the chance to call on the flop a little more loosely than usual. The reason is that you can get two cards for your 1 SB instead of just can. Just be careful with this one, as too many flop peels can be an expensive leak if you don't use discretion. The odds need to be somewhat close for it to be useful, since every time he bets the turn (and you didn't improve), you lost money for chasing in a spot you should not have chased.
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Old 05-22-2008, 11:22 PM   #25
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Post Re: A little challenge for the newer posters

This is a great idea for noobs like me to get their feet wet. Thanks! Writing my answer has helped me see how sloppy my thinking and play often is. Please correct me with the minimum necessary amount of humiliation!

Pre-flop:Villain is relatively tight and is playing multiple tables (which suggests to me that he is operating on autopilot most of the time), so I think his range for raising UTG is compratively narrow, say AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AK, AQ, AJs, ATs, KQs.

I'm a little unhappy with Hero's 3-bet, since we are behind most of those hands with AJo.

The fact that Villain caps suggests his range might be even narrower than we initially thought, say AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, but I wouldn't rule out the other holdings yet, since we don't know enough about him.

Flop:Of the six hands we thought he was most likely to have, we are way behind on three (AA, AK, AQ), and way ahead on three (KK, QQ, JJ). Of the less likely holdings, we are way ahead on eight (TT, 99, AT, , , and KQ, , ), about a 4:1 favorite (before the turn) on one (KQ) and about a 2.5:1 favorite on the other (AT). (If he had AJ we're either looking at a split pot, or he has a freeroll on us with AJ.)

Turn:We now have top two pair, but there is a second potential flush draw. Of Villain's six most likely hands, we are way behind on only two: AA, JJ. In addition, AA is a little unlikely for Villain to have, since it would mean that all four Aces are out. We are obviously way ahead on two of Villain's likely holdings (KK, QQ). Of the other two likely holdings, AKo and AQo combinations don't bother us, and if he has AK, AK, AQ, AQ, we are still about a 2.5:1 favorite. If he has the less likely TT, 99 we are way ahead, and even if he has AT, AT, KQ or KQ, we are still about a 4:1 favorite. (Same comments apply to AJ as on the flop, and now the same can be said of AJ.)

So in most cases, Hero is significantly ahead, and should be thinking about maximizing his profit. (I think a very conservative guestimate is that Hero is a 2:1 favorite.)

Suppose Hero bets out. Villain will wonder what hand Hero had that (1) was good enough to 3-bet OOP pre-flop, (2) only merited a check-call on the flop, but (3) was helped by a J on the turn. That leaves JJ, AJ, maybe JT (if he thinks we're very loose). So Villain is likely to know whether he is ahead or behind at this point. So (A) if Villain is behind, he will not 3-bet, but will call because of the size of the pot, and (B) if Villain is ahead, he will 3-bet. Outcome (A) "wins" Hero 1 BB, while outcome (B) "loses" Hero 2 BB (because if Villain 2-bets Hero will realize he is in trouble but will call because of the pot size).

Suppose Hero check-raises. (A) If Villain is behind, he will not 3-bet (because he will put Hero on a hand like AJ or JJ), but he will call because of the size of the pot. (B) If Villain is ahead, he will 3-bet, and Hero will have to call because of the size of the pot. Outcome (A) "wins" Hero 2 BB, while outcome (B) "loses" Hero 3 BB.

Either way, our expected payoff is better if we check-raise.

I'm not sure I have the math right, but as a very conservative guestimate, suppose Hero is a 2:1 favorite. Then the EV of betting out on the turn is about zero (even money), and the EV of a check-raise is about 0.33 BB.

How'd I do?

EDIT: Whoops! Just realized after reading someone else's post that AJ is not a possible holding for Villain given the flop, and AJ is not possible after the turn. That does simplify things a bit!

Last edited by Pedantic Fish; 05-22-2008 at 11:44 PM. Reason: Oops!
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