The initial raise UTG by the TAG suggests a big hand…big pair, big ace. The cap before the flop suggests AA or KK. However, since the TAG has relative position in the hand, he may have capped with QQ, JJ, or AK. The hand will be heads up and he will have position. With AJ, I’m only behind on the flop to AA or AK. Why not check raise the flop to find out where I am? Since there’s no mention of it in the post, I must be missing something?

With the turn a jack, the only hands that beat me are AA and JJ. Since I put him on AA-JJ or AK pre-flop, I would say there’s a 70% he has AA or KK (35% each) and 30% chance he has QQ, JJ, or AK (18% AK, 6% QQ, 6% JJ).

EV calcs-

With 46 cards left for the river, if he has AA, I’m drawing dead. If he has KK or QQ, he has 2 outs, leaving me a 95% favorite. If he has JJ, I have two outs, 5% chance. If he has AK, he has 3 outs, leaving me a 93% favorite. However, there’s a slight chance he could have AdKd, which would give him 12 outs, making me a 74% favorite. (I’m running these probabilities quickly, so I apologize if they’re a bit off.)

AA = .35 * 0 = 0
KK = .35 * .95 = .3325
QQ = .06 * .95 = .057
JJ = .06 * .05 = .003
AdKd = .02 * .74 = .0148
AK (other) = .16 * .93 = .1488

EV = 0 + .3325 + .057 + .003 + .0148 + .1488 = .5561

Thus, I calculate that I’m a 55/45 favorite to the river.

Do I donk the turn? If he’s behind (KK, QQ, JJ), he’s unlikely to check behind me on the turn. There’s plenty of LAGs at the 25/50c 6-max who would call down with middle/bottom pair, so I don’t worry about him checking behind me, especially with his aggressive tendencies. The fact that he’s multi-tabling means he probably has less of a read on me and is simply playing a strong hand aggressively. I think the check-raise here is the play.

Here's my working for this, exactly as I wrote it. Summary/decision TLR is at the bottom. It's all a complete *grunch* and comes as my first forray back into LHE after having had to take an abrupt month off from playing, calculating or having anything to do with poker and math.

What we know:

Villain is known not to open limp - and in fact raised UTG here
Villain is known to continue bet - and in fact did here
There is an ace on the table and a potential flush draw
Hero has two high pair

Hand range for villain: AA, AKs (non spades), AKo, AX(to 9)s (non spades), KQs (spades or not) KK, QQ, This range includes the (small but there) possibility that villain has 1-2 high spades.

I'd put him at a wider range if he had been in LP, but capping as TAG from UTG suggests a narrower range to me. I'd be more inclined towards him having a high pair, AA or KK, capping UTG but I don't know if that's just because those are hands I feel most comfortable capping UTG and am being short sighted.

Don't think villain's drawing a straight - betting too aggressively from UTG

Post flop: At worst (for hero) I think villain might have 3 aces, or alternatively may be drawing at a flush. At best (for hero), villain has a pair of aces, kings, or queens.

If he's drawing at a flush and has got 1 club left to get villain has a 5:1 chance to get it. Pot odds just about allow him to call (ish?) currently. Hero donk bet would make it a slightly better call for villain.

I think it quite possible he'll raise to try to get hero to check again on river.

Hero is WA/WB. In order to upgrade to the full house to beat worst case villain range, hero has roughly 11:1 odds. Pot odds (even with implied odds) do not justify betting unless betting for value if sure hero has villain beaten. If villain is holding (for hero) best case hand, hero already has him beaten unless villain gets lucky.

Considerations/questions I'd be asking myself:

What does hero think villain thinks hero have? What is villain's read of hero calling cap in BB? What does villain know about hero?
- Does the fact that we know villain continuation bets often (including now HU against presumably a fairly solid player) indicate that he doesn't pay as much attention to reading other players and then plays flexibly, but instead acts predictably - and therefore that villain himself is playing without thinking much about hero's cards? Perhaps insinuating his hand isn't as well matched against ours as it might be?
- Is villain trying to scare hero out of a relatively small pot HU? Again, what, if anything, does villain think hero has?

Hero is OOP to villain

Multi tabling... I don't know much about multitabling and how it might affect his playstyle, other than a common sense guess that he might not be paying as much attention to each table and/or may be trying to mix his style up a bit over the tables. Makes me more wary because either he's sharp and knows what he's doing or he's not really paying attention, which in itself may draw me out in overconfidence trying to get the most of his money. But still, worth bearing in mind.

If hero donk bets I think villain may raise. If hero c/r then hero takes control of the hand and show some strength. Is hero's hand strong enough to reflect that compared to the possible danger of trips or a flush draw?
- villain may raise either way. c/r'ing has the benefit of info gathering

I'd be much happier about this decision if it was a rainbow board! Am I suffering from MUBS? I just feel lost on knowing how certain what hand he's got, argh argh argh etc.

Summary

I think in this case I'd c/r. I have a fairly strong hand, though my odds for improving it do not match up to the pot odds. C/r'ing has the benefit of showing some strength and maybe taking control of the game and improving my betting odds. c/r'ing may gain me more useful information: if I just donk bet, it's almost a cert villain will raise. However, if I c/r and he re-raises then it is a strong indication he has a stronger hand than I do. Lastly, donk betting would make betting for the flush draw better value for villain, and I don't want to help him.

OTOH, there's just something in me that says c/r'ing here is rash and would be throwing money away. Maybe that's a new player/confidence thing. I also don't want to risk giving him a free card but in the case of WA/WB, I don't know if I'm giving a free card or taking it.
--

Now I've clanked through my brain's logic on this, I've got a couple of questions if you guys don't mind...

Am I throwing money down the drain by c/r'ing if I already think he might also raise? In this thinking, by c/r'ing, I'm basically ferreting for information and expecting to pay at least 2 BBs for it at the turn.
As a follow on - have I got it wrong/missed a way in which I can be more certain what hand he's got? I'm aware that player reading is one of my biggest holes so help's appreciated.
And finally in specific relation to the hand - I suppose folding here would be a cardinal sin? I'm not saying I'd want to, or would. I'm just noticing it wasn't even an option on the question, and I find WA/WB 2 pair-on-the-turn hands really tricky.
Real nub question - what are EV calculations and how do I do them?

Edit, day after writing: Wow, long post. Hope it wasn't way off. Actually able to post this up now.

I'm a new poster and this got bumped today, so I'll grunch. I'm curious if anyone else posted two years ago what I'm about to post.

I think this question is confusing because I don't know why we c/c the flop. Is it because:

1) We thought we were behind villain's range?
or
2) We thought we were ahead and we want to get a c/r in on the turn?

If 2) then obviously continue with that plan because that J doesn't change anything in villain's eyes.
If 1) then c/r is still good because villain is betting most of his range.

I guess what I'm getting at is that if donking is correct here, then it was probably correct to c/r the flop. (Personally I think it was because villain has a lot more combinations of pp than of AQ/AK and trips imo)

great idea. looking forward to reading the posts.

LOL slow pony here... sick bump.

bump for great thread with lots of EV calcs and discussion

*g*

- Range: Initially, anywhere from 1010+, A10s+, KJs+, QJs+, KQo+

- I'm not good w/equities. But I don't mind the 3b! pre. Although for me, I'm HU already. I'm not trying to iso, or anything. A display of strength is ok, but villain caps continuing his representation of strength as well. Not something I enjoy against a TAG player.

- Flop, I think I would 3b! flop. I don't like the FD and want villain to know I'm representing the A. A re-raise from the villain would cause me to rethink what he may/may not have. For all I know, he could of opened UTG w/8's or even 6's. It is shorthanded play, so I wouldn't see it as not possible. I would then c/c down to show.

- In this particular instance, I would lead out the turn. 2 FD's on the board which means no free cards. If I get raised, I call, then c/c the river. If he holds AK or AQ, we're good. If he just so happens to hold the 'ol pocket rockets, well, there's not much we can do about that. I'm not sure if I'm folding my top 2, even if it means paying for information.

...Time to read some replies!

Wow things have changed

They sure have.

Hand range for pre flop 99 - AA. AK AQ Aj suited KQ suited. Based on post flop play I would narrow it down to A10 suited - AA most likely AK or AQ as AA is very unlikely given we have an Ace. 88 is also poss. On turn I would check raise most often and lead out about 25 pct of the time. The hands we beat like Ak AQ and A10 are all betting this turn close to 100 pct of the time and Im happy to get as many bets in as possible.
The fact villian is multi tabling would cause me to believe he is raising pre flop w more premium hands plus the stats posted. If he caps turn I may just check call river but bout 1/3 time I lead all non Q or K rivers.