Until very recently, I never bothered with keeping close records of my results. I am a recreational player who plays various low stakes LHE games. By my estimate, I play 90% or more of my time at 4-8 + 1/2 kill live games. I have been pretty certain that I have been a winning player for the last few years. But a typical year probably had less than 200 hours of play.

Now, I have decided to keep close track of my results. In the last 104 hours (104.75 to be precise), my results have been so bad that I want to roll into the fetal position and just cry. So is this just a LOL sample size? (I am well within a single std deviation of projected results). Or is it telling me that I was fooling myself into thinking I was a winning player when, in fact, I just suck and I am the fish at the table?

Here are my stats:

Hours played at 4/8 +1/2 kill live: 104.75
Overall results: -183.5 BB
BB per hour results: -1.75
Total sessions: 23
Std Dev: 12.6 BB/hr
Std Dev for 104.75 hrs: 407.74 BB

My feeling has been that much more often than not, when I have been losing hands during this period, I am getting my chips in ahead but losing on suck outs and bad beats. But, I could be struggling with hand protection concepts, which struggle is causing my losses on bad beats and suck outs when I fail to protect my hands and invite long-shot draws to continue.

Of course, if I am the loser that these stats seem to suggest, I likely have many leaks to plug. Those can be topics on other threads. For now, I am just wondering what more stat savvy folks might think about these depressing results. I am hoping I am not nearly as bad as these results suggest and that I just need to give the long run a little more opportunity to work.

Any and all feedback is appreciated.

lol sample size. Come back after 1000 hours. What's the rake?

Ooops....left that out, and it's a good question.

Max rake is $3 + $1 (for jackpots).

Like you said, you're within one standard deviation of project results. Take a break, and dive into a poker book if you don't feel up to the felt.

Don't worry; we all do.

No, he's not. Variance scales linearly with hours so deviation with square root of hours.12.6 * sqrt(104.75) is maybe 130. That's 1.5ish SDs if the projected winrate was 0, over 2 if the projected winrate was +1.

With 3+1 rake and 1 tip, average player is 5*35/9 or 10 = $17 to $20 or -2 to -2.5 BB/hr loser so OP is beating the other players but not enough to overcome rake.

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OP, we were all in your spot at one point. Post some hands that confused you at yhe table, and let's start plugging those leaks.

Thanks for checking the stats calli. I agree that it's a game of plugging the leaks for the OP.

Post some hands, OP.

Here are some possible leaks:

1. Playing too many hands and going to far with them. To prevent yourself from playing too many hands, use a chart and seldomly wiggle. In fact, while plugging leaks, some of the marginal winners are now marginal losers. Also, be sure to have something strong in 3bet situations.

Then, look at flop play. If you flop top pair out of the blinds in a multiway pot, it's often correct to check-raise.

2. Playing a hand too aggresively. For example, at this limit, many overplay their hands. For example, a player check-raises and your read that it's at least TPTK. You have TT in a 9hi rainbow that's uncoordinated. If the player is out of the blinds, it's very possibly two pair, and calling down is better than re-raising.

3. Calling down. Though it's often correct to call down, if you had 88 in the hand above with the opponent who has TPTK+, you should give it up right away. (Though in higher limits, there are far fewer opponents that match the passive description).

Passive players can be easy to exploit if you give them the least when they show aggression.

4. When to valuebet the river. If you have top pair of tens, and a king pops and the pot is mid sized vs 1 or more opponent, you should usually just bet given it did not complete an obvious draw (such as QJ completing a straight, or a flush hits), and against passive players, you can even bet/fold! But as there are more players you should just check so you don't valuebet yourself. The same is true for an A instead of a K, because an awkward ace frequently gets there, such as a busted backdoor flush, and is afraid of two-pair.

5. Bluff out of the blinds. You should sometimes check raise someone who may be bluffing or cbetting. You can pick the times you think they are weak with psychology, or pick some of your draw hands that need to improve to win, or both. Bluffing sometimes when a draw comes in on the turn or river is powerful, but don't overdo it, especially w call stations. You should very rarely fold for one bet on the river.

Also, Ed Miller's SSHE book is a must read. Read a chapter, apply, and re-read.

And after plugging post flop leaks, then ease more hands back into pre-flop. Most low limit losses are from a lack of discipline, imho.

On the psychological front, avoid telling yourself stories like "Today I'm running bad. I can't hit a hand." Gambling is shown to be a way to alleviate nerves, so shuffle your chips if you must instead. Reform your thought and ask instead, "What do I know about my opponent after this hand that I did not know before?"

Put people on ranges while not in a hand, and don't go on auto pilot. Become the type that thrives on the stress rather than quiver up and start drinking or goofing off. You can strike up conversation about your foes profession and draw inferences towards their game plan. For example, a sales person is more apt to bluff.

Portray a false image... appearing reckless while in control can earn extra calls.

Don't fall into logical traps like focusing on "how you could've won the pot", and focus on "how to maximize" instead.

My devastatingly bad streak continues and thanks to callipygian, I caught a spreadsheet error that led to my previously stated Std Dev for hours played being off by a significant amount. So here are my updated bad (but now accurate) stats. The updates are in red:

Hours played at 4/8 +1/2 kill live: 104.75 124.75
Overall results: -183.5 BB -258.75
BB per hour results: -1.75 -2.07
Total sessions: 23 27
Std Dev: 12.6 BB/hr 12.59
Std Dev for 104.75 124.75 hrs: 407.74 BB 140.57

Time to take some time off from the tables.

I have read SSHE, and have re-read it. I am re-reading again. That said....

Your post is gold. So much of what I have been feeling is wrong, you have identified. Now, I have to work on how to fix.

I took about a year away from the tables before my recent return. I think during my time away from the game, I let a lot of leaks in my game. I am perhaps overconfident which has resulted in playing too many hands pre and playing the too aggressively post flop.

Here is an example:

10 handed table.

I am UTG+1 w red 88 I open with a raise pre flop. 5 callers (including both blinds).

Flop: A 10 8 rainbow.

Blinds check to me and I bet, hoping/expecting that any of the 3 behind me will be holding an A and raise my cbet. Villain at MP +1 raises. Folds around to me. I 3bet. Villain calls and we are now heads up on the turn.

In retrospect, I probably would have been better off with a check raise. Even if I did not get a 3 bet in, I probably would have gotten more overcalls and my hand would have been much better hidden.

Turn: A (second on the board)

Again, I make the mistake of betting expecting a raise that I can 3 bet. While I know A 10 and A 8 are within Villain's range, I think A8 is unlikely given my pocket 8s, and I am playing against a range that includes almost any A + but not likely AA. So feeling pretty confident I am way ahead here, I bet. Villain raises. I 3 bet. Villain calls.

River: 4

Again I make the mistake of leading with a bet. I make a very bad read thinking Villain's range might include a flush draw. In retrospect, her range almost certainly was A+ something else, and therefore she could not have 2 clubs in her hand (since Ac was the turn card). But I did not think that through in real time. Instead, I had hoped and thought she likely had either trip bullets or the flush and would make the mistake of raising my bet or otherwise be too passive to bet if I checked to her. She raises. I 3 bet. She 4 bets. I'm screwed and call.

I am pretty sure the results don't really matter here.

OP I am in the same boat as you. Just took some time off as my wife had a baby, I am finishing school this month, and I am starting a new career this month.

Flop bet/3! looks good to me. Having raised in EP, you're likely to have an A that will bet this flop, so it could check through if you check, which would be really bad. I think I probably just call the raise on the river, but the hand looks fine otherwise IMO.

Check raising any of the 3 streets would be a clear mistake because you were the last aggressor in all 3 cases.

I would call the river raise but otherwise it looks great. And the reason I would only call the river raise is subtle - the Ac is on the board, meaning Villain basically can't have a flush draw when she raises turn, which means she can't have a flush.