Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
I fprgot to include the existing pot which will probably put the best case scenario over 0.
But I also didn't get to subtract thw times that a J/9 is no good.
Whoops. I didn't see this when I was skimming before my previous post.
This is where some hand-reading stuff comes in. What is his range? The exercise that nobody has done yet (give villain a range and compute your equity, not change the board and compute the equity again) was designed to point this out.
If you bias villain's hand range so much that you think you're mostly facing overpairs, then when you change the board so that you flop top pair, your equity should still be weak. It will be stronger because you now have 5 outs to two pair/trips, but that's pretty much your only added equity. But I'm not sure that the same people advocating a fold here would advocate check-call, check-fold with top pair.
So I think there's a bit of a hand-reading mismatch happening. If you like top pair enough to try to get some extra bets in the pot with it against this opponent, then peeling has to be right. And if you think you're in such bad shape on the actual board that folding is obvious, you should be advocating a very weak line when you flop top pair against this villain. (And maybe you might actually do that. I don't know. But I'm pretty sure that most people here would be screaming for a check-raise attempt if you flop 9xx.)