Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
There's a post or a blog or an article somewhere where the thesis was "I didn't become a better player until I played more hands." The cost of learning about marginal situations is paid by playing them and losing a few. The cost of not learning about marginal situations is that you don't learn to play better.
I think that's solid general advice but I would advocate picking a hand where there's a more clear path, like where your backdoor flush draw is to the nuts and there's multiple ways to pick up open enders (the 7 doesn't really count).
J9 = 6 cards and we don't need to hit the river
Non-9d diamond = 9 cards, and you'll hit the river 9/46 (including 9d)
T7 = 6 cards, and you'll hit the river 8/46
Q = 3 cards, and you'll hit the river 4/46
Field = 21 cards
You lose 1 SB on the field, and 3 for draws that don't hit, but win 7 for draws that do hit.
-21/47-3*3/47*42/46+7*3/47*4/46... I'm not going to type it all out, I did it on Excel.
= -0.31 SB
That is, even if every single draw is good, and every pair is good, and get 4 SB for every bink (2 on the river for your draws because nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition and 2 streets of value for turned pairs), you don't profit.
The only way to navigate this is by some combination of having the turn check through enough so that you can draw for free, but still getting that sweet +0.64 SB from turning a pair (which is magically always good).