Had disagreement with friends on flop play, let me know what you think.

Preflop:
Straightforward player raises in HJ.
Loose, somewhat aggro bad player calls in CO.
We call J9 in BB.

Flop: 864 (3 players, 6.5 SB)
We check, HJ bets, CO calls, we make an easy... ?

...fold

I'd bet the flop.

We do have the nut low with nearly every card giving us equity on the turn so I'm tempted to not fold but we have so many legitimate draws that we don't really need this.

Fold.

Let's see, any gives you a decent-ish FD. A T or 7 make you open ended. Q or 5 gives you a gutter. A J or 9 give you toppest pear. You're closing the action getting 8:1.

This is way better than a perfect 3 straight and many of your eventual straight outs are to the nuts. Some of them give other people worse hands?
With in the ballpark of 10 outs, that would be terrible.
Guessing your friends are arguing between raise and call. I'm a nit, so I call.

Since we don't know the steaks and I'm not sure about SFO ranges, can you put the villains on a range?

My bad thought we had 4 diamonds.

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I'd call.

You guys who like your hand here must be really good at making runner runners. Also notice that raiser is presented as a straightforward player, so likely not betting this flop with unimproved overcards.

I'm having trouble understanding how this could be a terrible fold based on the chance of picking up some outs on the turn plus top pair outs.

I Think it's close. I would think if it's a mistake it isn't a big one. This being said, I probably don't peel as much as I should. I can see how you could talk yourself into a call with all the turn possibilities, but it seems to be a collection of marginal outs.

How are you guy's proceeding if you pick up a good draw? Or hit top pair?

Live FR 40.

I estimate HJ is something like A8o+, A6s+, any two Broadway's, 66+. He's not opening T9s. My range might be a little wide. I think he would c-bet with UI overs, else this is not an interesting hand (easy fold).

CO is like ~30%. He would 3! AJ+, 66+, possibly weaker Aces or pp or good KX if he's feeling aggro.

Hot/cold equity-wise, we are about 17% on the flop.

Hmm, well when a hand is posted in the low stakes forum, I'm not expecting it to be 40-80, and I'm not expecting a straightforward player to bet unimproved overs on a board that greatly favors the cold caller and BB.

This seems high - that's saying we have the equivalent of a pair. How much of that comes from runner runner draws?

17% seems right, if we had J8o we'd be about 49%.

ewwwwwww i actually agree with rob, lol.

I thought it's ez cbet UI overs 3handed?

I just fold , reverse io on our bddraws are imo terrible
Call up +1

You can pry these cards from my cold dead hands.
Additionally, if cutoff folded the flop, I'd probably c/r.

We have immediate outs against a number of hands that did improve.
A8, A6s, A4s, A7, A5, 77, 55.

And even "straightforward" players are going to c-bet unimproved in this spot anyway. No way is AQ/AK/etc. checking the 8-high flop.

And even "straightforward" players are going to c-bet unimproved in this spot anyway. No way is AQ/AK/etc. checking the 8-high flop.[/QUOTE]

If they are betting A/k A/Q here then are they really straightforward? NO WAY??? they are checking flop with A/K, A/Q?

What I meant by "straightforward" is that the player is not creative, tricky, or especially difficult to play against. I don't consider c-betting AK/AQ or whatever on this flop to be unusual, it's probably the most common line by most players.

Now obviously we don't know exactly how often HJ is c-betting UI overs, or if he does it HU but not 3-ways, or only with a big , or only AJ+ but not KJ, etc, etc, etc. Trying to ascribe a specific postline behavior based on one word is not going to be a useful exercise, because the reality is that you just can't know.

I think the RIO on our pairs is what makes the hand most interesting. With 17% equity getting 8:1 closing the action, we obviously have equity to continue. However we will generally lose the most when we make a pair and its not good or win the least when we improve. So that's bad.

On the other hand, we have a lot of good turn bluff cards that give us good draws or bluffs (T/7/5, possibly s) even when we don't make a pair that make it difficult for HJ or possibly CO to continue if they have no pair. That's not reflected in the hot/cold equity % and is good for us.

You'd have to pry this out of my hands.

We need 12% equity and we have almost 1.5x that amount. Thus:
We're getting a nice overlay. Sometimes we make second best. Sometimes we turn an open-ender and crush someone's dreams.

If this isn't a fair price, what would be? 2x our needed share?

Once he cleared the definition of straight forward up, this was my thought.

If we call the flop, we need to already know which turns we're donking.

It looks like a clear peel, it does depend a lot on flop cbetting frequency and I'd be more apt to fold against an expert who bets this flop.

Though one wonders if it's just better to donk the flop. It is your flop after all.


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We'd need a much better read than we have on the CO

I definitely peel flop. You might as well fold preflop if you are going to fold this flop.