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Old 01-13-2017, 07:17 PM   #1
KickingWater
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Equity vs. bottom threshold

I've been doing a little self-discovery with the equity calculator. One task was to identify the hands I'd be willing to raise with preflop vs. a raiser in front of me. Another study was vs. a limper. I was looking specifically for 45% equity vs. the opener's range, with me on BT.

Given my results, I'm wondering whether there must be a bottom threshold to reraising a raise in front.

Example: UTG or UTG+1 opens with raise and he plays something like 65/40. My equity standard would have me raise vs. his range with hands like QTo and K6s. But at this point should I give more weight to the possibililty that one of the aggressive blinds might call or 3-bet?

Another example: Vs. a crazy limper like 65/20 instead of a raiser , I would have 45% equity with hands as weak as Q2o or J5o!! I'm not sure I really want to put in 2 bets and see one of the blinds join the fray.

Succinctly, as worse players with wider ranges open in front of me and the hands I can raise with for equity diminish in value at the lower end of the spectrum, is there some rational/mathematical threshold that would prevent me from entering the pot too weak with the possibililty of players coming in behind me?

Last edited by KickingWater; 01-13-2017 at 07:23 PM. Reason: too many mistakes
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Old 01-14-2017, 12:40 PM   #2
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

I don't see how you can decide from pre flop equity alone. You are playing a [range] of hands after all, and you have a few streets to go before showdown. Yes, you should consider how often the blinds will play. Anytime you adjust your threshold for a player who is abnormally loose, you are ripe for counter-exploitation, so you should keep that in mind. For example, people will respond with more aggression to both the loose player and your response to the loose player.

Fold the Q2 and J5. That much I am pretty sure about.
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Old 01-15-2017, 06:15 PM   #3
KickingWater
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

Yeah, I'm pretty sure about that too. But why? If I'm on the BT and I reraise against a 35/15 limper with QTo or K7s because I have 45% equity vs. his range, why don't I raise a 65/30 limper with Q2o when I have the same equity advantage?

I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the fact that QTo and K7s can still play okay vs. an additional player in the blinds if they call the raise, but Q2o does not. What I'm asking is, where's the line between Q2o with 45% equity vs. the opening raiser and K7s with the same equity vs. the opening raiser? Do we just have the intuition to realize Q2o is so much weaker or can we apply some empirical standards that show us there is indeed a bottom threshold? Somehow we must be weighing the potential impact of a blind joining the pot in a way that's more than just subjective feeling.
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Old 01-15-2017, 06:29 PM   #4
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the fact that QTo and K7s can still play okay vs. an additional player in the blinds if they call the raise, but Q2o does not.
Yup.
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Old 01-15-2017, 07:39 PM   #5
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Yup.
LOL! Thanks, Bob! Go ahead. Keep your secrets to yourself.
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Old 01-15-2017, 08:16 PM   #6
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

Okay, so I'll throw up a few numbers myself then:

Hero holds QTo on the BT. HJ limps (He's a 35/15). Hero raises to isolate....

Hero's equity is 52.01% vs. HJ range.

...SB folds. BB calls. Assume BB would call with top 35% of hands.

Now equity shares are something like: HJ 30%; Hero 32% ; BB 38%

Hero is still close to 33% vs. 2 opponents.


Now same scenario, except HJ is a 75/30 player. Hero raises to isolate holding Q5o. Hero's equity is still 52% vs. HJ range...

...SB folds, same player in BB calls.

This changes things. Equity shares are now: HJ 27%; Hero 26% ; BB 47%; Now the hero's raise looks like -EV.


This leads me to conclude that not only do we want the 45% equity vs. the limper, we also have to consider: a) how strong we are vs. a possible blind 3rd player given his expected range, and; b) the chances that that blind will enter the pot.

So again, where would I ideally draw the line? If I was 100% certain one blind would enter the pot by calling my raise, do I want 45% vs a limper plus about 33%+ vs. both players? Probably I want something less than 33% because the blind will not enter the pot 100% of the time. Say he is expected to call my raise 50% of the time. Now how much equity do I want? Is 25% now reasonable? More/less/ why?

Last edited by KickingWater; 01-15-2017 at 08:18 PM. Reason: 52% is w/ Q5o, not Q2o
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Old 01-16-2017, 02:11 PM   #7
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Equity vs. bottom threshold

There are a couple things going wrong here.

1. When you look at your opponents stats, they don't tell you the whole story. When a guy with stats of 60vpip/40pfr raises UTG, those stats don't mean that his range is 40%. The 40% is how many hands he raises overall and not by position. The guy could be super tight and only raise 5% of hands from UTG, but be super loose in other positions and be open raising 100% from the BTN for example. So what you need to do is look at your opponents RFI (raise first in) stats by position and you'll get a much clearer idea of their actual range.

2. When doing your calculations for QTo isolating the limper and BB coming along, you're assuming that the play of the population is the same as you would play. Only calling the top 35% from the BB after one limp and one raise getting 4:1 immediately and 5:1 potentially (after limper calls) is super nitty. Like, you should be playing close to double that percentage. And if the BB is loose, he may play upwards of 90% of hands there.

The point is, your calculations are basically worthless because they don't reflect reality.

Try again with the first guy opening 18-20% and the second one with the BB calling 60%. Also, in the second scenario, the BB may have a 3 betting range. If so, take the 60% and remove the top 10%.
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Old 01-16-2017, 06:50 PM   #8
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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The point is, your calculations are basically worthless because they don't reflect reality.

Try again with the first guy opening 18-20% and the second one with the BB calling 60%. Also, in the second scenario, the BB may have a 3 betting range. If so, take the 60% and remove the top 10%.
I thought I might get called on my unrealistic BB range, but that's not the only fault you identified...your point is taken. Stay tuned. I'll try again when I get a moment.
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Old 01-18-2017, 08:49 PM   #9
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Originally Posted by rodeo View Post
.

Try again with the first guy opening 18-20% and the second one with the BB calling 60%. Also, in the second scenario, the BB may have a 3 betting range. If so, take the 60% and remove the top 10%.
Rodeo,

While I do understand a player's VPIP/PFR is an average and won't represent any particular position, as I start what you suggest, I think 18%-20% open limp is too tight to illustrate what I'm looking at. What do you think?

I want to investigate trying to isolate an extremely loose opener who still plays somewhat aggressively, like a guy who plays 60%-75% of his hands or more (Bad LAG or Nutball - I see one or two at every table). Surely such a player will open limp with a wider range than 18%-20% of his top hands, and may be expected to still raise with the top 10%-15% of his hands from a middle position, right? For example, a 65/30 player from HJ or MP1 may still play 45/20 or 35/15 in that spot realistically IMO. Or is MO a misguided O?
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Old 01-18-2017, 08:54 PM   #10
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Originally Posted by KickingWater View Post
Rodeo,



While I do understand a player's VPIP/PFR is an average and won't represent any particular position, as I start what you suggest, I think 18%-20% open limp is too tight to illustrate what I'm looking at. What do you think?



I want to investigate trying to isolate an extremely loose opener who still plays somewhat aggressively, like a guy who plays 60%-75% of his hands or more (Bad LAG or Nutball - I see one or two at every table). Surely such a player will open limp with a wider range than 18%-20% of his top hands, and may be expected to still raise with the top 10%-15% of his hands from a middle position, right? For example, a 65/30 player from HJ or MP1 may still play 45/20 or 35/15 in that spot realistically IMO. Or is MO a misguided O?


The 18-20% was for the guy that was 60/40. I'm not suggesting that his limping range is only 18-20%. I'm suggesting that he's likely raising 18-20% from UTG and that's the range from which you should base your 3 bet.
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Old 01-18-2017, 09:51 PM   #11
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Originally Posted by rodeo View Post
The 18-20% was for the guy that was 60/40. I'm not suggesting that his limping range is only 18-20%. I'm suggesting that he's likely raising 18-20% from UTG and that's the range from which you should base your 3 bet.
Okay, I didn't think that through either. I'll run a couple of new scenarios and post them. Maybe that alone will answer my question for me.
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Old 01-20-2017, 11:25 PM   #12
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

On Rodeo's suggestion I've revised my learning scenarios (2nd attempt) to see if raising a very loose opening limper with good equity might get me into insufficient equity vs. two when a blind enters the pot behind me. Maybe too elementary to interest many but useful learning for me and for which I welcome comment/insights:

Scenario 1:

6 players. Folds to HJ who limps in. Estimated range from this spot is 25/9, (77-66,A9s-A2s,K9s-K6s,QTs-Q8s,J8s+,T8s+,ATo-A7o,KJo-K9o,QTo+,JTo). Folds to Hero who raises from BT w/ A7o. Equity vs. limperís range is about 51%.

SB folds, BB calls. BB Estimated calling range is (66-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s,J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K2o, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o). Equity distribution now is:

HJ 36%

BT 35%

BB 29%

Hero still has a small equity edge vs. two players when a blind calls along.

Scenario 2:

Now assume the same scenario, same BB, but the HJís range is something like 45/15 in this spot (66-44, A6s-A2s, K8s-K2s, Q9s-Q4s, J9s-J6s, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A9o-A2o, K9o-K6o, QTo-Q8o, J8o+, T8o+, 98o).

BT can now raise to isolate with a hand as weak as A2o and still have >50% equity vs. the limper. Now if the same BB calls the equity distribution is:

HJ 34%

BT 33%

BB 33%

The weaker A2o still performs okay, not much differently multiway than A7o does vs. a tighter opener.

Conclusions:

Originally I thought a hand with equity vs. a very loose opening limper might include hands as weak as Q5o and furthermore, that such a hand if played, would suffer tremendously if someone behind entered the pot. What I found is the playable hand range vs. the opener isn't that weak. A2o is weak, but has positive expectation vs. the loose opener's range. But it isn't so weak that its equity drops significanty when a blind enters the pot. In the above scenarios, it still had 33% vs. two players.

So maybe raising a loose opener hoping to isolate really doesn't need to worry too much about someone behind calling along, because if the hand has an equity advantage vs. the opener it won't become a severe disadvantage when a blind enters behind.

Another observation: I would not have before considered playing A2o is this spot, thinking it too weak to play, especially for a raise, but if these equity calc's are pretty close, why woudn't I?
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Old 01-21-2017, 01:52 AM   #13
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

When I say "open" I mean "open raise." If you say "opener" to mean "limper" people may be confused.

Your ranges still could use a little work, but they're much closer than before.

In the situation you described, A5o would be the worst offsuit A that I'd raise.
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Old 01-21-2017, 12:49 PM   #14
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Originally Posted by rodeo View Post

In the situation you described, A5o would be the worst offsuit A that I'd raise.
That's what I'm trying to understand, Rodeo. You put a bottom threshold at A5o. Why there, and not A2o? Assuming the equity numbers are what I came up with, what is the crucial difference? A2o performs almost identically in Scenario 2 as A7o in Scenario 1.
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Old 01-21-2017, 12:55 PM   #15
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Originally Posted by rodeo View Post
When I say "open" I mean "open raise." If you say "opener" to mean "limper" people may be confused.

Your ranges still could use a little work, but they're much closer than before.
I'll have to keep working on the proper lingo. Any suggestions on correcting my ranges is welcome.
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Old 01-21-2017, 04:43 PM   #16
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Originally Posted by KickingWater View Post
That's what I'm trying to understand, Rodeo. You put a bottom threshold at A5o. Why there, and not A2o? Assuming the equity numbers are what I came up with, what is the crucial difference? A2o performs almost identically in Scenario 2 as A7o in Scenario 1.
the crucial difference is the kicker. if it were super likely to go HU when isolating a limper, then you could raise more liberally. but the most likely scenario is that one of the blinds will come along and you'll be 3 ways. so you need stronger hands to make up for those times that it's not HU, which is a lot of the time. one reason A5o+ does better than A2o+ is because when we hit an A and our opponent has an A, we're going to be dominating them more often. they have more AX in their ranges that we beat when we fold A2o-A4o. A5o is where i draw the line when there's one limper and i'm on the BTN. you may want to start higher while you're still getting the hang of it, like A7o.

what i raise after a limper also depends on my position. if a guy limps UTG and i'm the HJ, then i'm raising a stronger range than when i'm the BTN and that same guy limps UTG. the reason is that because there are more players left to act when i'm in an earlier position, it raises the likelihood of the pot going off multiway and i need to have a stronger range vs. multiple opponents.
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Old 01-22-2017, 06:48 PM   #17
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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the crucial difference is the kicker. if it were super likely to go HU when isolating a limper, then you could raise more liberally. but the most likely scenario is that one of the blinds will come along and you'll be 3 ways. so you need stronger hands to make up for those times that it's not HU, which is a lot of the time. one reason A5o+ does better than A2o+ is because when we hit an A and our opponent has an A, we're going to be dominating them more often. they have more AX in their ranges that we beat when we fold A2o-A4o. A5o is where i draw the line when there's one limper and i'm on the BTN. you may want to start higher while you're still getting the hang of it, like A7o.

what i raise after a limper also depends on my position. if a guy limps UTG and i'm the HJ, then i'm raising a stronger range than when i'm the BTN and that same guy limps UTG. the reason is that because there are more players left to act when i'm in an earlier position, it raises the likelihood of the pot going off multiway and i need to have a stronger range vs. multiple opponents.
I think I understand these concepts. Still, I can't get over what the equity calculator tells me, which argues for playing A2o vs. this super loose limper. The equity vs. this guy is the same as the equity w/ A7o vs. the tighter player. I get your reasoning on drawing the line at A5o but at the same I can't dismiss the fact that the equity seems to be there w/ A2o even if the BB does come in behind. Cold equity tells me A5o is too conservative. Heart tells me otherwise. Need more to go on than deceptive heart.

By the way, I really appreciate your patience!
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Old 01-22-2017, 06:56 PM   #18
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Re: Equity vs. bottom threshold

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Originally Posted by KickingWater View Post
I think I understand these concepts. Still, I can't get over what the equity calculator tells me, which argues for playing A2o vs. this super loose limper. The equity vs. this guy is the same as the equity w/ A7o vs. the tighter player. I get your reasoning on drawing the line at A5o but at the same I can't dismiss the fact that the equity seems to be there w/ A2o even if the BB does come in behind. Cold equity tells me A5o is too conservative. Heart tells me otherwise. Need more to go on than deceptive heart.

By the way, I really appreciate your patience!


And I appreciate your willingness to learn.
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