Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbleMint
What are we affraid of outdrawing us on this flop ?
No we shouldn't be affraid here. But I was just trying to raise a few points.
Firstly, I don't think we gain much implied value by slowplaying here. If we slowplay as you did and Mr 62s misses his draw we only gain a flop call and a turn call which is 1.5 big bets (assume if we were to raise Mr 62s doesn't call 2 bets on the flop - this is reasonable because he has 6 high with only backdoor possibilities - and if you think he is calling 2 bets then you absolutely must be raising the flop and slowplaying is definitely incorrect). But in order to gain these 1.5 big bets what have we risked? The WHOLE POT. What would have happened had we raised? If our assumption that Mr 62s folds to a flop raise is true then BB calls our raise and calls turn, folds river. What have we missed out on by raising? Only 1 big bet.
Secondly, the probability that a turn will give one of your opponents a monster is extremely low. If the BB does have second or third pair or a small pp the chance of him tripping up are 4.4%. If ace comes it actually could kill our action if BB has the King. If he actually does have the ace is he going to be willing to play a big pot and be raising you? Probably not. You raised preflop and he called two bets cold, he then called a bet on the flop with one overcard, sounds like a loose passive player to me he will most likely just call you down and hope his ace is good. I just don't see where all this magical implied value is coming from. The only time we figure to get serious action is if someone trips up or if someone makes a flush which gives you a full. If you have the K of spades in your hand then the probability of 62s making a flush and you making a full are 0.8%. If you don't have the K of spades then the probability of 62s making a flush and you making a full or quads is 1.4%. These just aren't going to happen often enough.
I just fail to see how we gain any decent amount of value by slowplaying here. Thats really my argument, I am not affraid of him outdrawing us on the flop, I'm just saying that we don't really gain enough value to make slowplaying the right option on the flop.
Question: Snap you and Mr 62s switch places on the flop. BB bets, Mr 62s calls, now the action is on you. Do you just call or raise here?