I strongly disagree with just blindly calling down.

If it were heads up on the flop, sure. But it's not.


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So in your opinion, not having a call range is balance and optimal, regardless the equity you have in this situation, correct ?

This isn't a standard situation

Also it's low limit. You don't need a balance range. You need to take the line that most exploits your opponents.

Blindly calling down in a three way pot with 99 here isn't a good play.


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So how does raising a hand that's behind the range of hands that MP donks with exploit him?

We're not blindly calling down though. We were given an example turncard.

Back to basics. Donk ranges tend to be really strong. That is the message a lot of people are trying to say. That is why you don't raise flop.

I actually interpret this donk as slightly weaker than a check raise from this player, but certainly not weak enough to justify raising.

Though this player can also be betting a combo draw like QT, or betting a hand like A8s because middle pair and doesn't want the fish to lolraise overs on the flop and face him w/ two cold, so we don't fold.

Saying we're "blindly calling down" is silly. There's turns we will fold, there's turns we will call again, and there's turns we will raise (well, a 9 basically). Then given we continue on the turn, there's rivers we do all 3 things as well.

This discussion reminds me a little bit of an old hand I played from back in mid 2014, where a lot of people wanted to raise the flop to face the weaker player with two cold. Of course, a big drawback to doing that is that we get ourselves HU against a range that smashes us (77 has 41.2% eq on J65r versus a range of AJs+, AQo+, 99+). Generally, I think it's a good idea to just play your hand against a range and understand when a range is strong (but not quite strong enough to fold against).

I would raise this flop most of the time, but I'm being swayed by the flat calling crowd. That said, I don't think raising the flop is a huge error. Raising the turn is spew.

So if that the case. Just fold the flop.

If you think you are doing well vs this particular persons range, you raise.


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Yes I think you should raise the turn in this spot.

I mean if you're even thinking about raising the turn that must mean you think the decent TAG's range is overloaded in FDs (which is a reasonable assumption given his peculiar play), therefore you can't fold the turn, and you may not be able to fold a blank river either depending on whether you think the TAG will barrel off vs you and the fish. Well if that's the case--in this very large pot--I'd rather invest an extra BB on the turn by raising.

Raising the turn protects your hand by forcing the fish behind to make a lot of correct folds or incorrect calls: (6x, 8x, KQ, 74, etc), it also has the potential to force the fish to make a nice incorrect fold FTOP-wise (QT). And of course it charges the TAG the max those times he's drawing.

And there's another positive effect that doesn't have to happen often in this large pot to be worth it. When you raise the turn in this spot you are putting a lot of pressure on the fish. He now has to call 2BB's cold on the turn knowing a 3bet can easily happen behind him. In this spot even calling stations are capable of folding Jx which would be a pretty sweet coup for you.

And what's the downside to a turn raise? Nothing much. You were perhaps gonna invest 2BBs and call down anyways assuming the fish didn't wake up with a hand, and a blank hit the river. If the Tag or Fish 3bet the turn you are gonna fold, but that doesn't really cost you much equity-wise cuz in that case you're probably folding a hand that has less than 2 outs on average. Also, getting 3bet bluffed off your hand is decidedly not a concern since this virtually never happens at 4-8, let alone against a calling station and a decent tag.

So a turn raise maximizes your chance of winning this very large pot, and it costs very little when things don't work out. So invest just one more big bet on the turn and go for it!

Agree w ILP. If you're calling down, raise.

I don't see what's peculiar about opponents play here. Villain raising, calling three bet and not capping is in line with a small pocket pair 66/88 or suited connecter such as 9-10 / Q10. Given his play post flop, these hands seem very likely.

Yes, if we believe the decent TAG that 3 bet the flop is still drawing, and we muscle out the "calling station fish" with his top pair, its an expert play regardless of when the river completes villains draw and we are left hating life.

But given the action post flop, I would say there's a good chance we are beat, possibly in two spots here, and raising the turn seems pretty spewy to me when our goal should be to get to show down to see if we have claim to this decent size pot.

savage you should teach this class boss.

also getting 3bet on a Jhigh board with 99 is worst case scenario. taking a line that opens us up to it is awful imo

I think there may be better candidates than me ITT.

Correct. Villain did nothing peculiar preflop.

It's villain's flop play that I find very peculiar. Villain just donked in a spot where Hero is virtually guaranteed to bet 100% of the time. The standard line with a monster in that spot is to go for a check/raise to trap the fish in. Yet the villain donks. It's strange. Initially this play correlates a lot more with a big draw or a marginal hand (Jx) trying to see where he's at than a monster. With a monster villain would typically not want to risk donking the flop and possibly forcing the fish out when hero raises.

Ok but after the donk, and hero raising + the fish calling, the villain then 3bets. This gives us some critical new information. In the heat of battle I would simply rule out marginal hands like Jx now. I'm a little more concerned now as the probability of a sneaky AA/KK hand goes up a tad, and the probability of a flopped set goes up too. But given the flop donk, this bet/3bet line still correlates a lot more with a big draw than a flopped monster. This of course is an assertion by me based on the player pool I play with. Admittingly there are many players I play with (mostly Asian) who will almost always have one type of holding when they donk/3bet in this spot: a big draw, because if they flopped a monster they just reflexively go for a check/raise and they're not crazy with their marginals.

So when a perfect blank hits the turn I'm still pretty hopeful of my prospects. And if we're hopeful enough to wanna call down on blanks, then I think raising is the better option because good things can happen if we do, and this play really doesn't cost us much when we're wrong.

That the crux of this argument. The action postflop actually gives me real hope. If villain check/raised the flop then I would hate life. As said before, if we are intent on getting to the showdown (and I think there's good reasons to be so), then I'd rather invest my 2BB's all on the turn with a raise because the cost of this strategy vs calling down on blanks is minimal and enough good things can happen to make it worth it imo.

You either dont call the 3 bet in the beginning or if you do, nothing changes on the turn except for how ballsy you want to get

Call twice. Call most rivers. Raising is bad at any point unless you gin a 9 OTR.

good thread

Don't try to "play poker" on the flop by raising. Just call down.