Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
8/16. 9 handed.
Folded to a guy who seems to be a decent TAG in the Lowjack...I 3 bet 99's..I have a tight image..the guy next to me calls CO..he very loose and a calling station post. Folded back to LJ who calls.
Jh8h6d..LJ donks, I raise, CO calls, LJ 3 bets, I call, CO calls.
Jh8h6d3s...LJ bets
Yes I think you should raise the turn in this spot.
I mean if you're even thinking about raising the turn that must mean you think the decent TAG's range is overloaded in FDs (which is a reasonable assumption given his peculiar play), therefore you can't fold the turn, and you may not be able to fold a blank river either depending on whether you think the TAG will barrel off vs you and the fish. Well if that's the case--in this very large pot--I'd rather invest an extra BB on the turn by raising.
Raising the turn protects your hand by forcing the fish behind to make a lot of correct folds or incorrect calls: (6x, 8x, KQ, 74, etc), it also has the potential to force the fish to make a nice incorrect fold FTOP-wise (QT). And of course it charges the TAG the max those times he's drawing.
And there's another positive effect that doesn't have to happen often in this large pot to be worth it. When you raise the turn in this spot you are putting a lot of pressure on the fish. He now has to call 2BB's cold on the turn knowing a 3bet can easily happen behind him. In this spot even calling stations are capable of folding Jx which would be a pretty sweet coup for you.
And what's the downside to a turn raise? Nothing much. You were perhaps gonna invest 2BBs and call down anyways assuming the fish didn't wake up with a hand, and a blank hit the river. If the Tag or Fish 3bet the turn you are gonna fold, but that doesn't really cost you much equity-wise cuz in that case you're probably folding a hand that has less than 2 outs on average. Also, getting 3bet bluffed off your hand is decidedly not a concern since this virtually never happens at 4-8, let alone against a calling station and a decent tag.
So a turn raise maximizes your chance of winning this very large pot, and it costs very little when things don't work out. So invest just one more big bet on the turn and
go for it!