Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Beale
It's easy to say bet/fold but, in practice, many (most?) of us call down like chumps and then feel like a chump also. Not bet/folding a hand w/ a great deal of show down value is a consideration as well as allowing us to hit OUR 2-outer. Check back the turn is not something I advocate as the default, just something to consider as not being horrible.
One of the things about this situation is that I am sure that if you plugged it into a GTO bot, folding to a turn raise would be out of the question. We're way too high up in our range, a good player should be raising some turns with hands we beat (whether they are semi-bluffed flush draws or even weaker aces), plus we have our 2 basically completely clean outs when we are beat. I don't know if the GTO bot would bet-3-bet, bet-call, or check-raise-call, but I'm pretty darned sure it isn't folding.
So when you get raised on the turn, if you fold, you better be darned sure. You are folding a hand with a ridiculous amount of value, based on a read that says that the opponent will literally only raise the turn with trips or better.
It seems to me that if you have that read and are completely sure about it, sure, bet-fold the turn. But if you don't have that read and are going to have to call 2 and call down, you have to take into consideration the fact that there are only 2 aces left in the deck and 2 8's, and you will (to oversimplify things some) be paying 3BB's half the time and winning 2BB's the other half of the time. So you need a significant number of flush draws in your opponent's range.