Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
Pretty much, yes. Only thing I can really beat OTT is QQ with a spade and I would expect QQ to 3b pre or xr flop with the spade. Doesn't mean he still can't have it OTT but flushes, straights, boats and 4x make more sense.
I doubt he's xr turn with hands like TT JJ with a spade. If he was intent on xr the As, I'd expect him to do it OTF.
So with this in mind, should I call or fold to the river bet?
If you really, really thought you were drawing on the turn (that is, you would have folded if you had red kings), then fold the river. But I am doubtful of that read. Or at least, I'm doubtful that the read is right, regardless of what you felt.
Your emphasis on the idea that your opponent has a spade with his pairs, or otherwise wouldn't check raise, suggests that you're being far too narrow in the hand ranges you're giving your opponent. At the lower levels, players do silly things with hands sometimes, and it's a mistake to assume that there's a high level of rationality to their decision-making process.
When I look at this hand, I would not be surprised if villain showed up with red 8s and wanted to wait for a safe turn card before check-raising after the scary flop.