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8/16 - KK river decision 8/16 - KK river decision

08-11-2017 , 05:46 AM
EP limps, I raise KK, LP, BB and EP call.

4-way (8.5 SB): 542
I cbet, LP and BB call

3-way (5.5 BB): 4
I bet, LP calls, BB xr, all call

3-way (11.5 BB): 2
BB bets, LP immediately grabs calling chips then realizes it's still my turn to act.

Never seen either player before. LP is 50-60 WG, BB is 30ish BG who seems like a station. Best play?
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 06:16 AM
Clear call, imo. You still beat a lot of pocket pairs, and who knows what the guy behind bet. Player behind maybe acting w a full house but that's rare. It's more likely that the player behind has an ace-hi and is anxious to chop the pot.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 06:50 AM
I highly doubt the player behind is looking to call with A high after the turn x/r from BB. I almost always call in this spot at 4/8, but I think it's bad. I don't think people are x/r'ing with air or middling pocket pairs on a 3 flush, paired board very often.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 08:35 AM
Yeah misread the xr. Probably beat, but pot odds to call.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 09:08 AM
I think folding here is justifiable without any reads on these players. We beat most AsX hands, but that's about it given the action. We lose to any A3, or any two spades which are certainly hands in both players ranges. BB could certainly have a 4, or a 2, depending on the player. However, we only need to win 8% of the time to be correct. I just don't see us beating both of these players, given their ranges and this runout that often.


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8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 11:50 AM
Ugh. Once again, the maximally exploitative decision is to fold (and probably in a vacuum the best decision against these players), but similar to your AK hand, you're wicked high up in your range. Literally near the top of it (as I assume you three bet all your high flushes boats and don't have a ton of medium or low flushes here).

The second board pair on the river makes me want to call more because I suspect a lot of villains at this stake would get scared to bet a flush, and it also removes hand combos that had you beat on the turn. Also, sometimes loose passive players are actually bluff heavy in certain spots simply because of their aversion to value betting (kind of funny, right?).

Last edited by jdr0317; 08-11-2017 at 12:00 PM.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 03:13 PM
Call without expending too much mental energy.

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8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 05:58 PM
An aggressive player will look at that dangerous board and think to themselves, "they don't have that, my 88-JJ is good", so I call.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 06:36 PM
Why did you call the turn? Was it because you thought you were behind and drawing to spades or a red K, but had the odds to call?

If not, call the river. There are very, very few 2x hands that just improved to beat you.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
Why did you call the turn? Was it because you thought you were behind and drawing to spades or a red K, but had the odds to call?
Pretty much, yes. Only thing I can really beat OTT is QQ with a spade and I would expect QQ to 3b pre or xr flop with the spade. Doesn't mean he still can't have it OTT but flushes, straights, boats and 4x make more sense.

I doubt he's xr turn with hands like TT JJ with a spade. If he was intent on xr the As, I'd expect him to do it OTF.

So with this in mind, should I call or fold to the river bet?
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 07:35 PM
It doesn't look like you beat anything then, so fold. The chances of a bluff go up when a scare card hits at these limits, but overall they don't bluff enough.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
Pretty much, yes. Only thing I can really beat OTT is QQ with a spade and I would expect QQ to 3b pre or xr flop with the spade. Doesn't mean he still can't have it OTT but flushes, straights, boats and 4x make more sense.

I doubt he's xr turn with hands like TT JJ with a spade. If he was intent on xr the As, I'd expect him to do it OTF.

So with this in mind, should I call or fold to the river bet?
If you really, really thought you were drawing on the turn (that is, you would have folded if you had red kings), then fold the river. But I am doubtful of that read. Or at least, I'm doubtful that the read is right, regardless of what you felt.

Your emphasis on the idea that your opponent has a spade with his pairs, or otherwise wouldn't check raise, suggests that you're being far too narrow in the hand ranges you're giving your opponent. At the lower levels, players do silly things with hands sometimes, and it's a mistake to assume that there's a high level of rationality to their decision-making process.

When I look at this hand, I would not be surprised if villain showed up with red 8s and wanted to wait for a safe turn card before check-raising after the scary flop.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty
It doesn't look like you beat anything then, so fold. The chances of a bluff go up when a scare card hits at these limits, but overall they don't bluff enough.
Yeah I've seen very few naked bluffs at 8/16...and fewer still that I can remember when it involved a xr. What I have seen are mediocre hands that are being overplayed by bet bet betting, but they started off as the aggressor, as opposed to raising or xr an aggressor.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
If you really, really thought you were drawing on the turn (that is, you would have folded if you had red kings), then fold the river. But I am doubtful of that read. Or at least, I'm doubtful that the read is right, regardless of what you felt.

Your emphasis on the idea that your opponent has a spade with his pairs, or otherwise wouldn't check raise, suggests that you're being far too narrow in the hand ranges you're giving your opponent. At the lower levels, players do silly things with hands sometimes, and it's a mistake to assume that there's a high level of rationality to their decision-making process.

When I look at this hand, I would not be surprised if villain showed up with red 8s and wanted to wait for a safe turn card before check-raising after the scary flop.
I definitely have this problem which is why I've been closing my eyes and calling down in these spots...with unhappy results. But I guess paying off one BB is better than folding a winner in a big pot.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 09:10 PM
I don't automatically exclude 88 w spade here w/o a lot of play against v.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-11-2017 , 09:48 PM
.

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 08-11-2017 at 10:05 PM.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 12:34 AM
Yeah this is a spot where I don't think we should be as exploitative as the AK hand. It's hard to have a value hand, the 2 eliminates 2 combos of 22, and now he may not even bet A3 or a flush. And if he's surprising us by showing up w/ a wheel, he may surprise us with hands we beat.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 01:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
And if he's surprising us by showing up w/ a wheel, he may surprise us with hands we beat.
+1

OP, if some of those players play incorrectly pf and call non sense of the flop, why you shouldnt expect some crazy play with weird hands on the turn and rver sometimes ?
This should have a good EV % in your evaluation to make this a call.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 03:17 AM
Easy fold on the river. And yes, you only should have called on the turn because your flush draw might be good. Red KK is an easy fold on the turn.
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08-12-2017 , 03:51 AM
I want to play in these 8/16 games where you can make hero folds all the time. Better to lose one bet than the whole pot. I would be way too high up in my range to fold here.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 04:00 AM
I wouldn't even consider this a hero fold, this is a routine fold. If you're only calling the turn because you have a draw and are getting good odds, it doesn't matter where you are in your range on the river.
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
I wouldn't even consider this a hero fold, this is a routine fold. If you're only calling the turn because you have a draw and are getting good odds, it doesn't matter where you are in your range on the river.
Routine fold?!?! Holy cow you play tough games.

I call these bets and see QsTh or 77 or As5x. I snap call here, but expect to lose
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
I wouldn't even consider this a hero fold, this is a routine fold. If you're only calling the turn because you have a draw and are getting good odds, it doesn't matter where you are in your range on the river.
You speak like it is not normal to call and lose some pot on the river with good hands...
What is your worst bluff catcher here if you have any ?
8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 03:02 PM
If this is a routine fold you fold way too much. In my games people do dumb stuff and I could never fold here especially closing the action for one bet.

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8/16 - KK river decision Quote
08-12-2017 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyOnTilt
If this is a routine fold you fold way too much. In my games people do dumb stuff and I could never fold here especially closing the action for one bet.
There was a check-raises on the turn, in a 3-way pot in which both other players had already put in a bet. After a straight flush flop and paired turn card. You guys really think you see a lot of bluffs in that spot? Trying to bluff out two players who clearly like their hands, and then following through with another barrel on the river after both of the other two players call the turn??

Also, you're NOT closing the action on the river. There is a player behind you, specifically exhibiting a tell that he still likes his hand and didn't just miss a draw.
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