Yes. But how often does it happen that you would have won the pot if only those overcards had folded? What is your actual gain in equity?

It's true that this could always happen. But how often does it happen? Do you really expect as a normal course of action that SB is going to donk-fold?

All of this is possible. But possibility and probability are not the same. In any given hand, we can imagine things working out in magnificent ways for us. But that imagination doesn't mean that it's a likely outcome.

Besides, I think it's far more likely that you would end up betting the turn because J-high isn't winning this pot unimproved, and a bet-call from villain on the flop isn't a strong enough indicator that he's committed to calling on the turn. Furthermore, betting the turn sets you up to bluff the river with J-high, which is probably among the worst hands you have in this spot.

So I don't see the logic here being entirely consistent.

Rather than looking for dissent, I would suggest that you try looking for support. Not just vague possibilities, but to look deeply at the ranges involved and the future cards.

Here's the basic problem: Half the time, you're basically guaranteed to fail. That means half the time, you're expecting to get called (or possibly 3-bet) by better hands. I would be more concerned with getting myself isolated out of position against the guy with the narrow hand range that crushes mine instead of optimistically placing bets on that 50% chance that something good might happen when I have a hand that seems to function perfectly well multi-way.

In general, if you've got a tight player in the pot, the best play isn't to put lots of bets in while definitely behind. It think it requires too much blind optimism to believe it will work out for you.

I'd call the flop.

This is too tight by no limit holdem standards. By limit holdem standards it's ridiculously tight. This player is not competent.

As played I think the turn is a very profitable check call.

Then hope to hit the river and check raise then call a 3 bet.

Then on 6th street keep your cool when you get shown a full house.

So if i get this right, we should have 0 bluff on this turn right ?
Cause I would be very interested to know which bluffing hand you would take if this one does not do the job?

I don't have any bluffs in my flop raising range, so having bluffs on the turn is impossible for me.

And you think this is the best course of action ?

While a GTO bot will almost always have bluffs, in exploitative poker, if your opponent doesn't have a folding range (or has so minimal a folding range so that it doesn't matter), you shouldn't have a bluffing range. And knowing that is really important whenever you get up against an opponent with a strong range.

Yeah fine.
But in this hand , which range we are talking about ?
SB or pf raisor

Got it man. I can see I overplayed my hand OTF. And yes, I should be looking for support not dissent lol. Next time I will flat in this spot. Thanks for your input!

If mp is really that tight then I think bluffing the flop or turn would be a rather large mistake.

+1. Calling the flop and x/cing the turn is the most profitable line here. He is never folding TT+ or AK. You're really hoping that he has AQ and will fold to the flop raise lead turn line. A bit optimistic considering villain's range.

You can add AJ

Depends on the player, as well as your table image IMO, but heads up, I think we've got enough equity and bluff(fold) equity to keep firing, especially if we only get a call on the turn. Very easy to represent the set, or boat from the bb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk