Competent player raises in MP. He's got a hand here...prob TT+ AJs+. I'm actually just guessing but it seems about right given that raises are rare here. SB calls as do I in BB with JT

3 to flop (6 bb): 993
SB leads and I raise hoping MP has two big cards and will fold. He doesn't but calls after thinking for a second. I'm sure he wasn't expecting this action. SB folds.

HU to turn (5.5 BB): K
I picked up more equity but this card hits MP's range better. I'm repping trips but feel like MP flopped an OP.

Should I bet turn and riv and keep repping trips or give up because it's hard to make people fold OP in limit?

I don't think he's going to fold, but you might have enough equity to give it a shot on the turn. Don't bet the river if you don't improve (and maybe not even then).

I think this is a pretty easy check and hope for a free card on the turn.

I would check the turn and hope for a free card. You should donk the river if you get there.

If I was gonna bluff, I'd do it as a check raise actually.

I'd rather just check call and try to hit.

I'd just check/call this turn. You might get a free card, but the king hits a lot of his range.

I just think we give up on the hand too early, especially with a c/r flop.
I just barrel off, better hands can fold here.
I mean how can we not bet when we actually improve on the turn with a gutshot ?

Do you mean check flop hoping for free turn, or checking turn hoping for free river?

Check the turn and hope for a free card.

Flop raise seems fine.

I mean when you have jack high against a flop donker and a flop cold called then everything hand is a better hand.

I think barreling down is pretty bad particularly one the original raiser cold calls the flop and a K hits the turn. You are going to get raised by AK or CR by a 9 a fair amount.

Well, he's not going to get check-raised on the turn, the SB folded.

Personally I'm torn about this hand.

That does change things. I'd bet for sure then.

I want to talk myself into betting the turn, but I'm in check call mode. I could be MUBSY here, but we put him on a pretty snug range preflop so after cold calling 2 I think he's either not folding his over pair, has our flush draw dominated or he hit the king.

We could keep to the 9 story and bet intending to triple barrel if we think he'll lay down the river unimproved. I'd expect a river raise when we do get there a fair amount of the time though.

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I keep firing. If you ever get TT, 88, AQ to fold that's a huge win though it does seem ambitious to try to make someone fold a pair. I'd feel better spending 1bb to try to win than letting some marginal hand have any easy decision.

Barrel off and I hate the flop raise.

If you raise the flop you have to fire the turn. Give him a shot to fold AQ or whatever. Saying you're going to get raised by Ak isn't necessarily true since a lot of range looks like a 9

The range you assigned to V is extremely tight: that makes this a fold pre since you're so often dominated and he isn't described as a buffoon postflop.

Don't see how this could possibly be correct; plus there is a SB who has already called and clearly plays terribly (donk/folded this flop).

Call preflop.

Call flop.

As played check/call turn. If read is correct that MP is competent than he isn't calling two bets cold on the flop with random big cards and he isn't folding the turn (or the river) with a pair. Only way we are winning without making hand is if we bet river and MP also has a flush draw.

That's the crux of the hand really. If you raise flop you have to barrel imo.

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If I ever fold JTs for one small bet in the BB I'll quit poker. This isn't 1994 at the Taj. The only hand that has us by the balls is JJ.

MUBSY? What does this mean?

Do I have to teach you every acronym??

It means living in fear of Monsters Under The Bed.

It's worth thinking about the actual number of hands in this range:

AA = 6 hands
KK = 6 hands
QQ = 6 hands
JJ = 3 hands (since you hold one)
TT = 3 hands (since you hold one)
Pocket pairs --> 24 hands

AKs = 4 hands
AQs = 4 hands
AJs = 3 hands
Suited aces --> 11

AKo = 12 hands
AQo = 12 hands
Unsuited big aces --> 24 hands

Presumably, you meant to include the big unsuited aces. So about 40% of the time, he's got an overpair to the board. If you include the times he has a big spade (I'll let you do the math), you're looking at close to 50% of the time that he's simply not folding.

This takes things to the actual question with the flop raise: What exactly do you think you're gaining when he folds his unpaired overcards with no spade? How much do you benefit when you have J-high with a flush draw and he folds red AK?

I figured that if I could get the pfr to fold his overs and get HU with SB that would increase my chances to win the pot. I could barrel the turn and get a better hand to fold. Even if the pfr had an OP and called my raise, he might check back turn if I check and I'd get a free shot to overtake him otr.

Since I'm going to call flop anyways, it seemed like a worthwhile shot to try to fold out the pfr for one extra small bet and get HU IP, but I'm definitely open to dissent.