Tight solid player raises EP (might have even been utg but I can't be sure), fish calls in MP, I 3b JJ OTB, both call.

3-way (10.5 SB): K86
I cbet, both xc

3-way (6.5 BB): 6
X to me.

If this were a 2b pot I'd bet here. But given that a solid player in EP raised it pre, I'm not sure if it's still a bet given his narrow range. I know he respects my game and he's pretty snug so I don't think he'd cap AK pre and wouldn't go nuts with it post given that I 3b him, and he could still have me beat with QQ.

Best play?

This is close. At this stake, I like betting again and checking behind river if the UTG player continues, and betting river if it comes a T, 9, or 7 and lower (and non spade) if against the fish HU.

If villain is truly tight and solid player I think he is showing weakness by not raising fish on this texture

So I slightly lean bet

+1 on the river play.

Also agree with betting the turn, but I don't think it is that close.

EP could have plenty of hands you are beating. EP also has to respect your 3 bet, and without a monster, EP is unlikely to XR you here. A tight villain is not likely to try and XR bluff both you and the fish. If you check and give the free card, you have both shown weakness and given both villains opportunities to draw out on the river. Plus, the tight solid player almost certainly would lead with a bet either as a value bet or bluff. Either way, you are likely going to call the bet. So, you are committed to at least one more bet anyway. You might as well put it in on the turn.

Finally, you can't win if you don't bet here. You might win if you bet here.

Keep betting, there are a lot of Ace-broadway hands and lower PP's that will peel one, especially if you have a habit of letting them take two cards for the price of one small bet.

I think you guys underestimate how often an opponent has a king here. It's just still low enough that we should continue betting.

+1

You often raise with a good pp and get an unpaired flop that goes Overcard-undercard-undercard. And basically, the higher the two undercards are, the more likely that callers have them. When the flop comes K32, the likelihood of one of the callers having a king gets pretty high. When the flop comes KT9, you are generally getting a lot of value from players with T's and 9's. K86 is in the middle ground.

Unfortunately, you no longer beat 6x either. I do usually bet here, but I think it is very thin.

I probably bet once more. The read tips this towards the type that could call down with AK/KQ (ironically, fearful of the paired 6 even though that doesn't really factor into your hand range). Easy fold if raised.

I would also say that checking behind and possibly calling a bet on the river is worth considering. It might be better than betting if you can reliably read what's happening from the river card and river action. (And also the chances of QQ folding... My gut tells me to focus on that possibility the most.)

If we assume a preflop raise/call range of AQ+/KQ/JJ+:

AA = 6 hands
AK = 12 hands
KQ = 12 hands
KK = 3 hands (lol slowplay)

AQ (no spade) = 9 hands (probably folded to a flop bet)
A Q = 1 hand
A Qx = 3 hands (probably folding to a turn bet)
Ax Q = 3 hands (probably folding to a turn bet)

QQ = 12 hands (Is he the type of player who has a hard time folding QQ to an overcard?)
JJ = 1 hand

----

By this count, you're probably behind more than half the time, and the player in the middle could also have a AK/KQ/KJ/KTs type hand. But betting one more might get QQ to fold (it only needs to happen rarely for this to be good for you) and you might extract value from the guy in the middle if he has a hand like 99 or a flush draw.

So it's pretty close, depending on just how narrow the preflop raiser's hand is and how likely he is to fold QQ on the flop on a Kxx board.

You can't have KQo in the opener's range but not AJs or TT. It feels like you're trying to give villain a range against which we are either flipping or crushed, and 0 hands that we're solidly ahead of pre.
If his preflop range is [JJ+,AQ+,KQ], then you should either fold preflop or coldcall with the intention of set mining. JJ has 45.8% equity against that range. Then on the flop we have 26.7% equity, being ahead of only AQ.


If we're going "super snug range" here then we should go with a more logically consistent one like [TT+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs]. We have 48% equity pre against this range. On the flop we have 35.9% equity.

When I played online before Black Friday, my UTG range was, imo, super tight at 7% of hands. That range was [88+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs]. We have 53% equity against this range. On the flop we have 40% equity.

However, I think all these ranges are too tight for someone described as a "solid" player in a live setting.

My hunch is "solid" for the 8/16 level is "doesn't open limp, raises what can be considered an appropriate range of hands from EP, but may miss value post, and also likes to 4 bet pre with solely the top of his range".

So on that token, I remove AA, KK, QQ from his range. I'll also remove AKs from his range. So we're probably talking a range of 88-JJ, AJs, AQs, KQs, AKo, AQo preflop.

Of these, I think he'd raise his AK on the flop, as he'll understand that it's a good hand, but be worried his KQs has "kicker problems" and play it more passively.

I do give him 88 in his flop check call range, since expert slowplay is common at this stake level.

So really, we're left with this once he calls flop:

Losing to - 88 (3), KQs (3)
Beating - everything else

This is obviously a rosy scenario as we can't be assured he 4 bets hands pre, nor that he's that ABC on the flop in narrow range 3 bet pots, but I don't think it's a bad approximation.

OTOH, I think the cold caller is way more likely to be the one w/ the King here. Hands like K7s are like prototypical "fish cold call" hands that they'll want to see a flop at any price with, but then play station-y without at least two pair. This being said, because he's so loose, he's basically as likely to have the 8 as he is the King in this spot, and can have all sorts of stuff that will just call down (like when you think a fish won't call the turn and river w/ 55, be advised that they will, and they do, even on like a river 7 sometimes, because "the Ace didn't come"). And you have to discount a King at least somewhat, because even a passive fish knows top pair is a good hand and might do some passive fish w/ a good hand thing and donk the flop, or check call / donk the turn.

Really I think UTG has 99-JJ here a ton, and fish has...well,something. So we should bet.

I'm fine with that, but I will say that live players have weird ranges. AJ is a hand that is viewed to have kicker problems (haven't you heard how much of a trap hand AQ is?) and QQ is a hand where you may sometimes want to see a safe flop before betting/raising (especially if there are lots of players).

Good stuff Aaron...I always enjoy and appreciate your replies!

Yes exactly.

I would say EP's pfr range is more in line with yours (which is also exactly mine). I don't love 3b JJ vs a solid utg/EP pfr range but I did it mostly to fold out the blinds and go 3-way with the initiative instead of 5-way on defense. Would have sucked if I got 4b lol.