I agree with you on this. OP does ask for evaluation on the river, though, and given the rest of the hand is standard/good according to basically everyone with a pulse, we give him the feedback w/ this caveat.

You may be correct I underestimate their bluff frequencies. But fortunately, we have showdown information from when unknowns check raise other unknowns in similar spots. Even at 20/40, I've thousands of hours and I'm struggling to find a spot where someone airballed here. I've seen it plenty in HU pots, but people do tend to play honestly MW. I agree given the fact that people play scared and won't check raise for thin value makes calling more attractive, but I'm struggling to find the hand he'd be bluffing with here. Besides, we overfold, but we still have our sets, straights, and top two's to protect us. And given OP's recent threads, I'm not sure if he's raising KTs or KJo here, so we could potentially be in the bottom quarter of our value bets in this spot. So yes, villain can turn an immediate profit by check raise bluffing, but it's not ultra apparent (like we aren't the kind of dude who goes to town with value betting TT and then folds up to AA to a xr).


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Here

Let me describe this scenario a bit more to emphasize this point.

Let's say you're playing a 5 hour session. How many river check-raises do you expect to see? (Not against you, I just mean total river check-raises somewhere at the table period.) I think on many nights, you don't see any. So let's just estimate for a moment that you see one every other night. (I think this is too often. I'd probably estimate maybe once every 3-4 nights. But whatever.)

This means that it will take about 28 days to see 14 river check-raises. In other words, about a month if you're playing every single day. (And you don't even get to see the showdown hands on all of these. You might miss 2-3 showdowns -- 10ish% of them -- and not know what actually happened).

What? You only play on the weekends? And not every weekend? Instead a month, you're probably looking at 5-6 months. And all it takes is one time in that period that someone is a little too drunk, a little upset, a little crafty, or a little anything and it's right for you to call.

I really can't believe you insist on trolling and calling me terrible and then still won't just play in my games OL, but sure away we go.

1) that was 20/40. Keep up
2) That was with a guy whom I have a ton of history with, which makes the thread bad because really, it's player specific (and player specific hands suck)
3) When I put in a ton of action with an uncapped range, and bet into him on the river, and he continues to battle, that's even more excuse to fold the bottom of my value range on the river, not less. Learn relative hand strength.

Once again, you're conflating situations. Getting check raised one time in a higher stakes game is not a reason to fold a hand this strong at this price, but it is much more likely to be the correct play at these more passively played stakes. And these are totally different spots.

Really, you should save trolling for people who can actually make arguments and not talk in the TAGfish platitudes that were effective back in like 2006. Either you're straining to get some troll posts in (which is whatever, the gimmick is old), or you seriously can't understand the difference in certain spots against certain opponents. Really, I have to assume you're just trying to derail because having to explain the differences between these spots is not something one would have to do w/ anything but a total beginner.

You're making an assumption of a general level of rationality in your opponent that I'm not willing to grant to a generic bad player.

In a big pot, the donk-factor matters. Bad players play bad. The pot is big. I have a big hand. I'll call for one more bet. Big pots really aren't the right time to be making big folds in limit hold'em.

I still don't see where I said the OP said the raiser was a nit.

I understand. For the record, we can take a guess at when we can start folding fairly big value by P(X=0) in the binomial distribution, and finding where P(X=0|n) < 0.05, where P(X=0|n) = (1-0.077)^n. In this case, it's 38 straight "big pot check raises" to conclude w/ any confidence that we should fold. So ~ 250 hours of play w/out seeing one may be a good barometer that you simply won't see one all that often.

I probably average 50 hours a month of play in higher games, and I'm racking my brain trying to think of any time someone showed down a bluff raise at some point this year. Maybe they're secretly geniuses, who knows, but given the crap people bet/call against me, I'd be surprised.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW.."tagfish platitudes" lmao!!!!!!! sooooo you're saying you made a good fold there????...REMEMBER (caps for you) mubsy, I wasn't the only one who called it a bad fold. you had an over pair to board, you lead into guy on river and then fold to his raise...AFTER(caps for you) putting in a ton of action....instead of looking in dictionary to try and sound intellgent spend that time pluggin your leak mubsy.

I'd hope that you can see where YOU called the guy in the hand a nit, and I was wondering why you made that assumption since OP never said he was and in fact his description would lead me to believe the exact opposite.

It has nothing to do with the ability to see. I simply said against a nit, you can fold. I later expanded and said you can fold against the pool. You're just trolling as usual.

Given you can't conceptualize the difference in scenarios, yes, TAGfish. But I forgot, all the 20/40 "pro fish" on here are just terrible and the only reason you aren't getting all of the money is because you might run bad.

Given that even after spelling out to you that folding is more defensible after putting in a ton of action (and being raised anyway), and that you still seem to process it, I'm going to assume that running bad isn't the only reason why you've taken the mantle of 4/8 king. Though maybe you're right and I'm terrible, but given the lack of actual valuable content you post on here, you don't really give yourself much opportunity to prove that.

P.S. May want to spell "intelligent" correctly before making fun of someone for trying to sound intelligent. Really not a good look.

So you had a TON (caps for you) of history with the guy and yet had no clue where you were on ANY street,,,whats that say for your game JRD? Why lead out on river? at this point the guy either had a BIG hand or air...even most beginners know to check call here..why? do you know mubsy? because your only going to get called by a better hand or in your case LMAO! pushed out of pot....for one additional bet LMAO!!!!!!!!!!...I still say you folded so you could tell yourself that you were in control all along as oppossed to calling and being shown the nuts...ahhh egos are such fragile things...

So why randomly make a statement about a nit? And not talking about what you later expanded on lmao...and you can call me a troll all you like...not gonna stop me from checking you when you say something stupid or just down right wrong!

typo, but if you like llet it stand as a reflection of my intelligence, lmao...I still know when not to fold LMAO...and I don't know about getting ALL the money and obviously everyone in here isn't a fish..hence the PRO/ fish...but you my friend I'd guess they are building games around you and your to foolish to realize it. Clearly would be profitable to simply get in last bet against you...you advocate bet folding or just folding WAYYY to often FPS with mubsy tendencies...would be y diagnosis LMAO..o and FYI you can spell check any word you type, so if I was concerned about spelling ...well you can t be that stupid, you get the picture.

Given that even after spelling out to you that folding is more defensible after putting in a ton of action (and being raised anyway), and that you still seem to process it, I'm going to assume that running bad isn't the only reason why you've taken the mantle of 4/8 king. Though maybe you're right and I'm terrible, but given the lack of actual valuable content you post on here, you don't really give yourself much opportunity to prove that.

You sound like I was the only one who called that a terrible fold? ONCE again REMEMBER ALLLLLL of your 20/40 buddies said the same thing I did...WOW JRD maybe you're learning or at least actually TRULY examining your game...MAYBE you are TERRIBLE! maybe lmao!

I think you should have to change your name. When I post actual content I wouldn't hate for anyone to think it's coming from somebody else, unless it's a HU challenge then confusion is ok

I never been more in the dark about whether or not a statement is sarcastic until now.

The thing I don't like about this fold (AK) is, what hand should we use has a bluff catcher ?
I mean we 3bet 77 right ?( not even sure OP raise it even tho he should , 66-55 more debatable )
I mean we raise 89s ( not even sure OP raised it but w.e) and 77 and we only bluff catch with KQ ?
Do we call AA ?

I mean that is a very narrow range to continue with in big pot like that.

Call w two pair. Vs crusher you should have a bluff here, which are almost non-existent at 8/16. AA could be a b/3b bluff vs crusher. Frequency is critical though and all AA is way too much.

Ya I'd probably set my line at AA because like Aaron W said, we can't be sure. We overfold a bit because live 8/16, but we do need to draw the line somewhere.

Really, given the way OP plays (which seems very tight), bluff check raising him looks like a suicide mission in this spot.

I'd definitely 3b 77. Any set really since I'm still beating all 2P. If he has me beat then I'll be grateful he didn't win more off me.

And I'd clearly raise 89 lol. That's the nuts. Or are you talking about raising pre? If you are, should I be? From everything I've read it's a call in LP over limpers.

Well we need to draw the line somewhere and I agree.
Isn't kts,kjs you could do with ?

If I were playing a pure theoretical approach here, it'd be JJ as my bet fold hand, since I'd still bet it


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He meant on the preflop.

At 20/40+ I'd certainly raise 98s after two limpers. It's fun, good for the image, and you can play a ton of hands profitably for a raise in position here.


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Yes I was talking pf.
If you don't raise pf ,77 89s I just don't see how you can fold this really.
The only hand you would call with would be AA and 3bet only with KK.
Villain could c/r any 2 cards vs you and make a ton of money.