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6-12 What story are we trying to tell? 6-12 What story are we trying to tell?

07-30-2017 , 04:14 PM
That's not the same thing. Anyway, maybe he really meant he just doesn't think CR villain will fold any pairs to a bet on the turn, after we 3-bet flop. I think there is a chance he will, especially if a K or another overcard to his pair comes on the turn. But again, it looks like his range is very draw heavy, so there is a very good chance we are ahead. If not, there is a decent chance the 3rd guy could fold a pair to 3 cold on the flop. If not, we're still usually a money-favorite 3-ways on this flop.

Really the only "bad" thing that could happen from 3-betting is the the CR villain has a pair (or better) and 4-bets, while the 3rd guy folds his weak overcard (non-flush draw) hand. I really don't think that parlay is nearly as likely as all the other situations combined where 3-betting either results in something really good happening, or in it being pretty even EV. And if it's even, the image play is good for getting us paid off in the future when we have a big overpair in this spot.
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
07-30-2017 , 06:34 PM
This bit is what I was thinking about afterward, although admittedly it didn't occur to me at game speed.

We're heads-up and the turn is Js and villain leads out.

At the time I was thinking OK, he has a pair of some sort, or maybe he did that with rando overcards/diamond draw that included a J, but it didn't really occur to me that this could be a blocker bet, so I just called which partially turned my hand over (I think...I could still have something like 88-TT and just called the turn lead) but I didn't even consider raising again.
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
07-30-2017 , 06:51 PM
Also, I think some of you may look at hands wrong, maybe not wrong but at least incompletely. I'm not going to go into it to much but I think the approach is often we are 35% 3 ways on stove and only need 33% to break even let's shovel money in, which is fine but you still have to play poker.

Rob you don't account for things like getting to raise the turn when a diamond hits, and similar factors that aren't quantified with a simple stove.

Or the fact that the guy probably has like 66 here and puts us on what everyone always has here
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
07-30-2017 , 08:28 PM
Everyone puts us on what everyone has here because everyone calls the c/r with 88+ so 100% of everyone's 3-betting range is two diamonds.

To that extent, I agree if you're going to call 88+, you should also call with AdXd.

But we have no weak peels to protect, maybe 76s minus 7d6d, so it's fine to jam. Hands like AKo shouldn't be betting the flop at all - it's 5 ways. Our betting range is strong.
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
07-30-2017 , 10:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dead..money
Also, I think some of you may look at hands wrong, maybe not wrong but at least incompletely. I'm not going to go into it to much but I think the approach is often we are 35% 3 ways on stove and only need 33% to break even let's shovel money in, which is fine but you still have to play poker.

Rob you don't account for things like getting to raise the turn when a diamond hits, and similar factors that aren't quantified with a simple stove.
These things go both ways -
If you 3-bet, you also will often have the option to take a free card on the turn if you miss and it's still 3 ways or you otherwise determine you have no fold equity. And if you do hit the flush, someone may call you down on both big streets instead of folding to your turn raise.
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
07-30-2017 , 11:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
I did.

ETA sort of. 3bet flop, bet any improvement plus turn K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by offTopic
This bit is what I was thinking about afterward, although admittedly it didn't occur to me at game speed.

We're heads-up and the turn is Js and villain leads out.

At the time I was thinking OK, he has a pair of some sort, or maybe he did that with rando overcards/diamond draw that included a J, but it didn't really occur to me that this could be a blocker bet, so I just called which partially turned my hand over (I think...I could still have something like 88-TT and just called the turn lead) but I didn't even consider raising again.
You have ace high in a bloated protected pot, what are you going to do?
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
07-31-2017 , 10:04 PM
I was thinking afterward that, given the line I'd taken so far, while I can have some big diamond draws, I should also have lots of big pairs and really not much else, so does anyone like also raising turn? This kind of stuff very seldom occurs to me at game speed, but the unsuited big card combos should be eliminated by my flop 3! so my range should be super strong

At any rate, I just called.

River: offsuit 9, villain checks

I took this to mean he doesn't love his hand but is going to call one bet or he missed his draw as well and I'll be good anyway so I check behind...probably the most straightforward street (I think?)
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
08-04-2017 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty
Also in call down mode. This is a dream bluff catcher.
So fold top pair with a backdoor nut flush draw, but call a tight guy with ace high on a low coordinated board who just check raised? ONLY reason you might call is because he said the old guy has a line on his play and might have his hand pegged! And imposter!!!!!!!!!!!! CHANGE UR NAME...UR NOT ME!
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
08-04-2017 , 02:58 PM
Opps didnt see he had diamonds..sorry scratch last comment
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote
08-04-2017 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dead.money
So fold top pair with a backdoor nut flush draw, but call a tight guy with ace high on a low coordinated board who just check raised? ONLY reason you might call is because he said the old guy has a line on his play and might have his hand pegged! And imposter!!!!!!!!!!!! CHANGE UR NAME...UR NOT ME!
You are the imposter, trying to provide bad advise to tarnish my name.
6-12 What story are we trying to tell? Quote

      
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