Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
This issue comes up in no limit even more. Players will flop, say, top pair and overbet the pot because there are flush and straight draws out there, forcing opponents to fold. They don't realize how much money you make all the times you get them to peel with those draws and miss, because it's so frustrating for many players when you are in the lead and then they hit.
The problem in no limit is even worse, as players tend not to think about the problems they're in when they put in those big bets AND get called. In trying to win a small pot by putting a lot of money in, they inadvertently put themselves in a world of hurt a non-trivial amount of the time. This is because when they get called, they basically always have the worst hand, and they're usually setting themselves up for a turn shove and lose a big pot.
Just spitballing numbers here: Suppose that there's a $50 pot and someone bets $100 to win it. And lets say that 90% of the time they just pick it up. But the 10% of the time they get called, they're crushed. Let's not even think about extra action.
90% of the time they win $50 --> +$45 EV
10% of the time they lose $100 --> -$10 EV
Total profit = $35 EV
Percent of hands lost = 10%
Now let's say that they bet $25. They get called 50% of the time, but when they're called they still win 50% of the time. Again, ignoring future action...
50% of the time they win $50 --> +$25 EV
50% of 50% of the time, they win $75 --> +$18.75 EV
50% of 50% of the time, they lose $25 --> -$6.25 EV
Total profit = $37.50 EV
Percent of hands lost = 25%
(This is an improvement of about 7% equity, which is fairly significant.)
Obviously, numbers pulled out of thin air and not looking at turn/river action may not exactly correspond to reality, but this illustrates the idea. You win money when players call with weaker hands, EVEN IF THEY HAVE THE ODDS TO DO IT. Yes, it means you lose more hands, but it also means you win more money. (And money is what matters.)