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4/8 LHE my first family pot! 4/8 LHE my first family pot!

06-06-2017 , 05:48 PM
So far it's been arguably the softest 4/8 table I've ever played at. Almost every hand 5-handed to the flop, some 7. Earlier in the session I saw a hand where the flop came JT8r, three streets went bet/call, the better turned over 86 and the caller showed 33 and mucked. There was a hand where I saw a free flop from the BB with ATo, flopped top pair, turned 2 pair and rivered a boat, and the CO showed me KK and mucked.

So this hand: 5 limps around to me in the CO with Q9s. I committed a blunder: I limped along. That was stupid, I don't know what I was thinking at that moment, it was a trivially easy raise. At a MINIMUM the BB and all of the limpers would have called so there would have been 7BB in the pot on the flop, I'd likely have the option to take a 4-card flop and most likely a very easy turn decision with position.

As played, the BTN also called, the SB completed and the BB checked for the first 9-handed family pot I'd ever seen.

The flop came J73r. UTG+1 bet and there were 2 callers around to me, so 12SB in the pot not counting the rake. I figure my 3 queens are worth a total of maybe 1.5 outs, my 3 9s a total of .5 outs and my backdoor straight draw 1 out. So I essentally have 3 outs. I don't think the blinds are capable of checkraising and I'm not afraid of a raise from the button.

I feel like the right play here is to go ahead and make a loose flop call and re-evaluate on the turn. The pot is so big and it's only going to get bigger - if by some miracle I manage to make the nuts I'm going to get rich. I have RIO though - I might get value-owned if I spike a 9 or a Q but at this table I've seen worse hands bet and call bets.

Thoughts?
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-06-2017 , 06:09 PM
Man you have to condense these posts to something a bit more standardized .

Q9s is certainly a raise here for me. But at least you didn't fold it.
Flop is a fold. You have queen high. Your turn equity cards don't get you anywhere close to the nuts.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-07-2017 , 03:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
Man you have to condense these posts to something a bit more standardized .

Q9s is certainly a raise here for me. But at least you didn't fold it.
Flop is a fold. You have queen high. Your turn equity cards don't get you anywhere close to the nuts.
Beware of JRD suggesting you fold lmao...you're correct. make the loose flop call and reevaluate on turn...
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-07-2017 , 06:23 PM
Your turn equity cards don't get you anywhere close to the nuts.

(3) - 10's, (10) - spades, true non give you the nuts, but they damn sure give you draws that have enough equity to continue and even RAISE! lets not forget its 9 handed! JRD I think you have a hole in ur game.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-07-2017 , 07:22 PM
Let's start here. How does ATo look in a game with people playing everything and raising AA?
Equity Win Tie
UTG 9.48% 8.47% 1.01% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
UTG+1 9.57% 8.57% 1.00% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
UTG+2 9.73% 8.70% 1.03% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
MP1 9.47% 8.45% 1.02% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
MP2 9.59% 8.58% 1.00% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
MP3 9.77% 8.74% 1.02% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
CO 9.59% 8.60% 0.99% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
BU 9.51% 8.51% 1.00% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
SB 9.74% 8.73% 1.02% { random }
BB 13.56% 12.25% 1.30% { ATo }

Same with Q9s
Equity Win Tie
UTG 9.18% 8.21% 0.98% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
UTG+1 9.43% 8.44% 0.99% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
UTG+2 9.64% 8.64% 1.00% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
MP1 9.35% 8.31% 1.04% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
MP2 9.88% 8.88% 1.00% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
MP3 9.10% 8.11% 0.99% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
CO 9.51% 8.48% 1.03% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
BU 9.49% 8.50% 0.99% { KK-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }
SB 9.68% 8.72% 0.96% { random }
BB 14.72% 13.73% 0.99% { Q9s }

Here's a slightly more "realistic" 70% range with QQ+, AKs removed.
Equity Win Tie
UTG 12.21% 11.13% 1.08% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
UTG+1 12.14% 11.04% 1.09% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
UTG+2 12.16% 11.06% 1.10% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
MP1 12.15% 11.07% 1.08% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
MP2 12.12% 11.04% 1.08% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
MP3 12.09% 11.00% 1.10% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
CO 15.80% 14.71% 1.09% { Q9s }
BB 11.33% 10.39% 0.93% { random }

So in a 7 way pot, we have a small edge over our 14% fair share. Not world ending. Not quite as much edge as in a family pot with random hands.
Quote:
I'd likely have the option to take a 4-card flop and most likely a very easy turn decision with position.
Yeah, unless the button cold calls or people donk. Having an edge is enough reason. The whole 4 card flop concept is over-rated, especially as you move away from the button.
Quote:
As played, the BTN also called, the SB completed and the BB checked for the first 9-handed family pot I'd ever seen.
You need to find better small stakes games. Maybe start playing O/8, because true family pots are yummy.
Quote:
I've seen worse hands bet and call bets.
They're terrible at poker. Having seen a worse hand bet and call bets isn't a reason for you to do it. If your answer isn't "I'm getting a good enough price for my odds, and they won't punish me when I'm 2nd best", then you need to look at it again.

Family pots with wide ranges and cheap flop/turn/river betting rounds go really well with hot/cold equity. Pull up equilab, make some assumptions, and see.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-07-2017 , 07:42 PM
I don't care about preflop. I think it's a close to break-even spot and raising and calling both can do good things post flop (raising can get a 4-card flop; calling can leave you with better relative position if one of the blinds raises).

I would not peel the flop and I think it's a significant mistake. This spot is significantly closer if you had QTs.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-07-2017 , 09:09 PM
also don't think Q-high suited 2 gappers play to their full hot/cold potential.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-08-2017 , 08:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
You need to find better small stakes games.
Where are they??? I travel a lot for my job so there's always a chance I'll be near one!
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-09-2017 , 01:28 PM
I would not peel the flop and I think it's a significant mistake. This spot is significantly closer if you had QTs.[/QUOTE]

You're 9 handed with people that play terrible, you have 3 cards that make you open-ended, 9 cards give you flush draw, and 1 card gives you open-ended flush draw....and peeling here is a SIGNIFICANT mistake...lmao! Think its the other way around, folding here would be the significant mistake.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-11-2017 , 08:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
The flop came J73r. I figure my 3 queens are worth a total of maybe 1.5 outs, my 3 9s a total of .5 outs and my backdoor straight draw 1 out. So I essentally have 3 outs.
If it contributes to the discussion at all, I did *not* have a three-flush on the flop.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote
06-11-2017 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
If it contributes to the discussion at all, I did *not* have a three-flush on the flop.
That makes a huge difference, FYI. A 3 flush will come in 4.16% of the time, which adds a good deal of equity to our hand. With it, we can now profitably continue on any T or spade for any number of bets, and a Q or a 9 on a single bet (and maybe an 8, K is dicey as it could kill our equity with our Queen), and I can get behind peeling in this scenario.
4/8 LHE my first family pot! Quote

      
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