You have to love two things. One, our O8 friend replaced hot/cold equity sims by dealing actual hands. The second is a nice hustle. As you point out, the fact that KQs is a better hand than A4s isn't in question. Yet he gets a profitable prop bet vs this straw man argument. Well played. Jdr is correct, imo.
Here's partial homework. Let's assume villains would raise top 4% or 5%, and that the limpers play 40%, 45%, 55%, and 60% ranges. They're terrible and this is a 50%-ish VI$IP game. The BB is never folding, because lollimit. How's A4s? This is a 6 way pot, so fair share is 16%.
Equity Win Tie
UTG+1 17.38% 15.92% 1.46% { 99-44, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
UTG+2 17.03% 15.58% 1.46% { 88-44, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, AQo-A2o, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
MP1 16.05% 14.71% 1.34% { 77-33, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, AQo-A2o, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
MP2 15.80% 14.51% 1.29% { 77-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
BU 19.45% 17.38% 2.07% { A4s }
BB 14.28% 13.30% 0.98% { random }
Coming as a surprise to exactly nobody (not named Omahaisbetter's friend) , KQs is a much better hand
Equity Win Tie
UTG+1 15.92% 14.71% 1.21% { 99-44, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
UTG+2 15.61% 14.36% 1.25% { 88-44, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, AQo-A2o, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
MP1 14.68% 13.56% 1.11% { 77-33, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, AQo-A2o, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
MP2 14.40% 13.33% 1.07% { 77-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
BU 25.47% 24.46% 1.01% { KQs }
BB 13.93% 13.11% 0.81% { random }
25% freaking equity 6 ways? That's huge.
It is way better than the ~20% that our profitable A4s friend got.
Quote:
I guess my main point is you will not be ahead very often when you get alot of action post flop. I honestly love playing against ppl who will raise often in this spot so I have no idea why I am arguing against it....
Most live players think that anyone who is more aggressive than they are will be bad players. I could tell you stories about my own version of getting my head kicked in while learning to play 6m while thinking this. It was expensive. The play is either correct or it isn't, the observation that "I like playing vs guys like that" only holds water if you can point out the mistake.
You can play with these ranges and find starting ranges where KQs is profitable and clearly a raise while A4s isn't. In that case, raising A4s is wrong. There's nothing in your exercise related to ranges. With my quick and dirty limping ranges, both A4s and KQs are easy raises. Work out your own sims (your hands will be sore dealing 30 million runs by hand).
A lot of action? If you give a lot of action with TPNK, you deserve to lose. Since villains play a lot of suited cards and our hand makes
nut flushes, that's a good spot. Run KQs into A4s with the same suit on a flush board.
Last edited by DougL; 05-18-2017 at 09:47 PM.