Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight
Here's a hand from a recent 20/40 session:
I'm having one of those sessions where the whole table is grumbling about how good I'm running. I have 6 of my 8 opponents on visible and audible tilt. One of the biggest steamers opens from the HJ and I 3-bet Q9hh on the button. He calls and we are heads up.
Flop is 975, two spades; he check-calls. Turn is Ks; we both check. River is an 8; he checks...
So the reason I'm posting this is: to bet or not to bet? On the surface, it seems like an obvious check back. The problem is I think there is real value to be had here. My opponent is on megatilt and I have his range as super wide (we have seen a 92s open). Based on how the hand has played out, I think I can safely rule out straights, flushes, sets, big pairs, and better 9s. From a range perspective, I really only expect to see a passively played Kx if I'm losing. But we also have a strong live read that he is weak on the river. But can he call often enough to make betting profitable? I really do think so. If we know we are basically never losing, it doesn't really matter how often he calls, right? Plus I feel he's going to pay it off more often than normal (like, with ace high sometimes) and I think it's worth it to fire this bet in there to steam him up even more. Plus the rest of the table will see it if he calls and I think that's worth something for my table image. Thoughts?
Betting is clearly right but more importantly the check on the turn is really bad. He will turn all sorts of draws that you still beat and that will call you and that you don't want to give a free card to. Even if he hits the king he may not checkraise since he perceives the board as scary and your range as strong. Also you are gonna want to double barrel that turn card (and fire the last barrel on a lot of bricks), think of all the gutshot straight flush combos you will have.
3 betting Q9s in this spot pre can be totally fine but not if you don't know how to get value from the marginal hands you are gonna make. You should bet all 3 streets. Sometimes he will have better but that's fine.