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Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS
Potentially as wide as Ax, Qx, 8x, T9, TJ, KJ, KT, pocket pairs.
I don't know the player so can't really say for sure.
Maybe we should take a step back. What are you assuming at the moment of the preflop coldcall?
If you're not sure, think about two ranges. One that you think is a little too loose and one that you think is a little too tight. Then see how your strategy stacks up against them both. That will help you to asses your situation better.
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By AJs+ I mean AJs or better, which includes AK/AQ off suit
You should be more clear, as A7s+ doesn't always mean you're playing A8o.
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Specific to tournament play for me, also specific to the dynamics in this particular tournament. I don't make small pairs and ace rags fold so easily like i might in a higher buyin tournament. I would play those hands in a cash game, but in this particular comp you get stationed pretty hard so you have to show them a hand and too often the good Kx hands don't quite have enough strength to win unimproved.
So you're suggesting that when players call more, hands like KQs go down in value? I think that's wrong. KQs is plenty strong HU or multiway. You're throwing away quite a bit of value there.
Also, this seems to suggest that you think pocket pairs aren't folding that much, period. In a HU pot, I don't mind 22 coldcalling. Unless he's super good (which, if he's coldcalling 22 preflop, he's not), he's going to hate most of the flops, turns, and rivers that come. It takes something to show up on the river with 22 if there are bets going in on the other streets.
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once he calls turn then i probably end up adopting a check fold policy with my non pair+ hands on blank rivers, assuming he checks back river with showdown value with hands i beat that he thought good enough to call turn
You're assuming that the player is bad enough to coldcall preflop with T9. Tell me how this assumption fits in with your perception of his ability to determine what hands to check the river.
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in this particular hand i probably end up calling ace high on the double paired river because he doesn't look like he has a lot of full houses and i suspect the absolute top of his range is jacks which somehow did not 3 bet me pre or raise flop. IMO he's capped since he did not raise pre or on flop or turn. it's possible, but not enough to justify folding the river imo. he just has too many 22-77s that will have to bet to win the pot because they can't win at showdown.
How often is 77-22 getting the river? What other hands do you think get to the river?
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probably a suicidal bet vs an utg raiser though.
Maybe. But I'd never be in that position in the first place, so I wouldn't really have this decision to worry about.
Overall, I think because your preflop range is so tight, there's not a lot you can do with your range in this situation. I think my primary challenge to you is to reconsider your preflop range. You should probably open it up a bit.