UTILITY SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post) - Page 4 - Poker Software -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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[UTILITY] SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

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11-18-2014 , 12:52 PM

#76

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

Added the option for individual player finish distributions for each payout tier.

This is relatively untested, so please post if you encounter bugs or have questions/suggestions.

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01-09-2015 , 03:44 PM

#77

inlighter

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 17

it doesnt work for HU or I missed smth?
http://screencast.com/t/8Napsg1bRSk

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01-09-2015 , 04:17 PM

#78

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by inlighter

it doesnt work for HU or I missed smth?
http://screencast.com/t/8Napsg1bRSk

Thanks for reporting this. I'm not able to reproduce it. Can you try it from when you first start SwongSim and just select the HU preset payout structure. Dose it still fail? Otherwise, please list the steps you take to get this result.

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02-01-2015 , 12:49 PM

#79

TouchOfEVil

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 3,134

does this work for all spin and go formats through the major sites? ftp/stars/ipoker/winamax ?

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02-01-2015 , 01:10 PM

#80

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by TouchOfEVil

does this work for all spin and go formats through the major sites? ftp/stars/ipoker/winamax ?

Yes, all of those payout structures are included in the presets. You can also enter others manually and save the settings to a text file for re-use.

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02-10-2015 , 03:53 PM

#81

TouchOfEVil

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 3,134

played around a bit with the program now, nice work absolutely awesome tool to play around with to ease the mind a bit when faced with absolutely horrifying swings, love the simulation typing out confidence intervals for expected swings etc

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02-13-2015 , 12:12 PM

#82

7a.m.@hu

journeyman

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 285

Hi!

Again thanks for you work,
Is there anyway to simulate the variance of my evbbchip/100 (or chips win / SNG)
if i know my EVroi%?

Thank you

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02-13-2015 , 12:58 PM

#83

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by 7a.m.@hu

Hi!

Again thanks for you work,
Is there anyway to simulate the variance of my evbbchip/100 (or chips win / SNG)
if i know my EVroi%?

Thank you

We can simulate chips won per game using the following settings (where $ will represent chips). This works because in a winner-take-all format the distribution of chips won per game is determined by the player finish distribution.

Players = 3
Winner Take All payout structure
payout Buyins = 3
display results in $ Winnings with Buyin $ = 500 (assuming a 500-chip starting stack).

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02-13-2015 , 08:36 PM

#84

7a.m.@hu

journeyman

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 285

it was obvious hehe thank you very much

edit; anyway to simulate EVchips variance instead of Chips?

Last edited by 7a.m.@hu; 02-13-2015 at 08:56 PM.

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02-19-2015 , 01:39 PM

#85

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by 7a.m.@hu

it was obvious hehe thank you very much

edit; anyway to simulate EVchips variance instead of Chips?

Sorry, didn't see the edit until now. I should have realized that's what you were originally asking for. IT was obvious and I missed it completely. That simulation is not possible with this tool. I guess it would require simulating actual hands/games.

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02-19-2015 , 01:56 PM

#86

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

Added Rakeback Interval which specifies how often (in number of games) rakeback will be added to the current bankroll. This potentially adds a little accuracy to the simulation in cases where rakeback is significant and the interval is relatively large.

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02-19-2015 , 08:11 PM

#87

7a.m.@hu

journeyman

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 285

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

Haha nono you understood my first question correctly!
My english is so bad hehe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

Added Rakeback Interval which specifies how often (in number of games) rakeback will be added to the current bankroll. This potentially adds a little accuracy to the simulation in cases where rakeback is significant and the interval is relatively large.

Thanks! i will simulate to see if it change a lot!

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02-27-2015 , 04:04 PM

#88

FreakDaddy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 17,968

Cool... good work. I'm checking this out now. Thanks for putting it together.

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03-21-2015 , 09:42 AM

#89

crazyriver

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,732

Good work. Thanks a lot. I was actually thinking about writing something like that and just found this thread.

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04-03-2015 , 08:50 PM

#90

7a.m.@hu

journeyman

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 285

Hi! do you think you can add a tool to know the variance of my chipEV total win, given that i know ;
My EVchip/sng (or evroi%)
My standard deviation of evbb/100(chips)

thank you!

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04-03-2015 , 10:05 PM

#91

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Not sure exactly what your looking for, but I'll think on it more tomorrow when I'm fresher.

Updated a couple small things (same link). Added preset structures for the new WPN Jackpots (soon to be released) and for the Stars $5-to-$million.

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

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04-05-2015 , 11:12 AM

#92

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by 7a.m.@hu

Hi! do you think you can add a tool to know the variance of my chipEV total win, given that i know ;
My EVchip/sng (or evroi%)
My standard deviation of evbb/100(chips)

thank you!

I might still not understand specifically what you are looking for, since standard deviation is typically an (implicit) output of this type of simulation. (standard deviation is the square root of the variance) But I do think there might be some value in adding cEV stuff to the tool, since it is a good shorter-term indicator of player performance.

I will think about it more and have included it on the list of possible additions, although I can't give much hope for anything soon as I only work on this when opportunity and motivation coincide.

Thanks for the suggestion!

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04-12-2015 , 07:51 PM

#93

MrBubbleBoy

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,102

gyazo.com/e292c9032d0fa8e553f2f97911861779

Why does it say my roi is 185% and how do i change this

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04-12-2015 , 08:00 PM

#94

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

It's due to the crazy high win rate in the Player Finish Distribution. Those specify how often you finish 1st/2nd/3rd.

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04-12-2015 , 08:19 PM

#95

MrBubbleBoy

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,102

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

It's due to the crazy high win rate in the Player Finish Distribution. Those specify how often you finish 1st/2nd/3rd.

Thanks for the speedy response. Is there any chance you could introduce a scroll in function on the graphs? some of them are too hard to read

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04-12-2015 , 08:26 PM

#96

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

A good idea that I will add to my list of possible improvements; thanks. In the meantime, most of the info is also available in the text output.

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04-18-2015 , 10:34 AM

#97

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

Added a secondary rakeback field (Bonus/Award) for things like periodic VIP bonuses and leaderboard awards. (Amount to be entered in terms of buyins.)
Added rudimentary pan and zoom for the graphical output. (Not the prettiest; pardon the flicker for now.)