UTILITY SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post) - Page 13 - Poker Software -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Thanks. If they would ever publish their full probability table, I could put in a preset for them (if they are in fact different than other Twister). All I can find is the top tier: https://poker.betfair.com/en-GBR/promotion/twister-sng/

Quote

06-06-2017 , 01:56 PM

#303

farreli80

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 117

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nat3

I just spoke to betfair live chat and they said that for the twisters rake was 10% of buyin... so $10 twister $1 to rake...

The rake in twister is not 7%?

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06-08-2017 , 05:17 AM

#304

farreli80

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 117

Which ones are the Twister iPoker exact odds?

Thank you see you later.

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06-08-2017 , 09:03 PM

#305

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by farreli80

Which ones are the Twister iPoker exact odds?

Thank you see you later.

As far as I know, it's this:

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06-09-2017 , 03:12 AM

#306

farreli80

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 117

En ok thank you.

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06-15-2017 , 01:39 PM

#307

Nat3

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 183

I spoke to another friend and he said that the live chat are volunteers from the mentally disabled hospital. Their information they provide is totally useless but their hearts are in the right place. So yeah it might be the other chart...

Quote

06-15-2017 , 04:23 PM

#308

8gameisfun

grinder

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 635

Is there any chance we can get the Party Heros added? Doesn't even need the bounties as they should even out, just the 4man with the probabilities.

Amazing software, thank you!

Edit: I just saw that this was spoken about on the last page:

As I said, bounties should not be too much of a factor, they just even out with your skill edge over time, so you can just add them to the prizepool as if they were not there.

Last edited by 8gameisfun; 06-15-2017 at 04:29 PM.

Quote

06-15-2017 , 05:11 PM

#309

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by 8gameisfun

Here is Hero ($20) with the bounty evenly split among the first 3 places (4th can never get the bounty). Note that the top tier is a special case with 4 places. Since SwongSim can only accomodate 3 places, I combined 2nd and 3rd into one position (legit because they get the same prize). So the finish distribution has to reflect this and combine the finish percentages for 2nd and 3rd into 2nd place, with 4th-place percentage going into the 3rd position. (Un-check "Use finish dist for all" to edit individual finish dist numbers.) Hopefully that makes some sense.

I can't vouch for the precise accuracy of simulations with the bounty distributed in this way. (So I don't really want to add it as a preset.) You can copy-paste the text in the spoiler below into a text file and then drag it onto SwongSim to load the settings as pictured.

glgl

Spoiler:

[SwongSim Simulation Settings]
Simulations=5000
Games=30000
Players=4
PlayerFinishDistribution(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDistribution(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDistribution(3rd)=27
Frequency1=8
Frequency2=72
Frequency3=715
Frequency4=1643
Frequency5=7143
Frequency6=80623
Frequency7=559795
Frequency8=350001
Frequency9=0
Frequency10=0
BuyinMultiplier1=10000
BuyinMultiplier2=1000
BuyinMultiplier3=100
BuyinMultiplier4=50
BuyinMultiplier5=10
BuyinMultiplier6=6
BuyinMultiplier7=4
BuyinMultiplier8=2
BuyinMultiplier9=0
BuyinMultiplier10=0
PrizePool1(1st)=68.333
PrizePool1(2nd)=26.6666
PrizePool1(3rd)=5
PrizePool2(1st)=68.333
PrizePool2(2nd)=15.8333
PrizePool2(3rd)=15.8333
PrizePool3(1st)=68.333
PrizePool3(2nd)=15.8333
PrizePool3(3rd)=15.8333
PrizePool4(1st)=68.333
PrizePool4(2nd)=15.8333
PrizePool4(3rd)=15.8333
PrizePool5(1st)=83.333
PrizePool5(2nd)=8.333
PrizePool5(3rd)=8.333
PrizePool6(1st)=83.333
PrizePool6(2nd)=8.333
PrizePool6(3rd)=8.333
PrizePool7(1st)=83.333
PrizePool7(2nd)=8.333
PrizePool7(3rd)=8.333
PrizePool8(1st)=83.333
PrizePool8(2nd)=8.333
PrizePool8(3rd)=8.333
PrizePool9(1st)=100
PrizePool9(2nd)=0
PrizePool9(3rd)=0
PrizePool10(1st)=100
PrizePool10(2nd)=0
PrizePool10(3rd)=0
PlayerFinishDist1(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist1(2nd)=54
PlayerFinishDist1(3rd)=19
PlayerFinishDist2(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist2(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist2(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist3(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist3(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist3(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist4(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist4(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist4(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist5(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist5(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist5(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist6(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist6(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist6(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist7(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist7(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist7(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist8(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist8(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist8(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist9(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist9(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist9(3rd)=27
PlayerFinishDist10(1st)=27
PlayerFinishDist10(2nd)=27
PlayerFinishDist10(3rd)=27
OutOf=1000000
Rakeback=40
RakebackInterval=1
Bonus/Award=0
BonusInterval=1
ShowTick99=True
ShowTick97.5=False
ShowTick95=True
ShowTick90=True
ShowTick80=True
ShowTick70=True
ShowTick60=False
ShowTick50=True
ShowTick40=False
ShowTick30=True
ShowTick20=True
ShowTick10=True
ShowTick5=True
ShowTick2.5=False
ShowTick1=True
Show99Trace=True
Show97.5Trace=False
Show95Trace=False
Show90Trace=True
Show80Trace=False
Show70Trace=True
Show60Trace=False
Show50Trace=False
TextOnly=False
ShowEV=True
ShowRakeback=False
ShowFTP=False
ShowVPP=False
ShowBuyins=True
ShowDollars=False
BuyinAmount=1
PayoutStructure=Custom
NumberThreads=3
GraphHeight=2000
[Notes]

Quote

06-15-2017 , 06:07 PM

#310

8gameisfun

grinder

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 635

I copied it, dragged it and got this:

http://puu.sh/wl9pT/97c18bc1a9.png

But I somehow believe that ROI will not be sustainable.

What am I doing wrong?

Quote

06-15-2017 , 07:23 PM

#311

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by 8gameisfun

I copied it, dragged it and got this:

http://puu.sh/wl9pT/97c18bc1a9.png

But I somehow believe that ROI will not be sustainable.

What am I doing wrong?

Looks like a region formatting thing with dots and commas. I guess try changing the dots to commas (for example 68.3333 --> 68,3333).

Might want to re-save the settings after that.

I guess someday I should try to handle that in the software.

Quote

06-16-2017 , 06:23 PM

#312

8gameisfun

grinder

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 635

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

Thanks, works perfectly now. For some reason, swings with this model seem to be huuuge compared to 3-handed spins, even with 2% less rake. I'm trying to figure out why that is, since for me intuitively, swings should be much less severe. Any ideas?

Quote

06-16-2017 , 06:36 PM

#313

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Not sure which 3max spins you're comparing to, but my guess would be a combination of the top-heavy payout structure for Hero and the extra person (making wins less frequent).

Quote

06-16-2017 , 07:16 PM

#314

8gameisfun

grinder

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 635

I compared it to $3 Spins.

Is it really that much more top heavy though? Top spins are 8 times more frequent and the really bad ones (2x) only make up 1/3 of the games. Maybe it really is the one extra player.

Am I right to assume that chipEV/game and therefore ROI could be higher because of the extra player aswell, seeing as you can win 1500 chips instead of 1000 for 3h games? Maybe that's why the graphs I produce are soo much more swingy.

Last edited by 8gameisfun; 06-16-2017 at 07:25 PM.

Quote

06-16-2017 , 08:11 PM

#315

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

To illustrate that they're more top-heavy, change that 8 to 0 and compare that to removing the top 8 possible payouts in the 3max games. Then notice how much the corresponding rake increases for each (and ROI drops).

Your cEV/game should remain the same, assuming the same ROI (and rake, so that chips have the same value). When you win, you get more chips, but you win less frequently. For example, 40 chips per game is 2.6% ROI for HU, 3max, 4max, etc (assuming winner-take-all and the same rake).

Quote

07-08-2017 , 07:59 PM

#316

wKR91105

stranger

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 10

Where should i copy the text to get the 20's hero sngs?

Quote

07-08-2017 , 08:05 PM

#317

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by wKR91105

Where should i copy the text to get the 20's hero sngs?

Save it to a file and then drag the file onto SwongSim.

Quote

07-11-2017 , 09:34 PM

#318

7845

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 157

But i cant test chipev in the partypoker sng's. Any help ?

Quote

07-11-2017 , 09:57 PM

#319

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by 7845

But i cant test chipev in the partypoker sng's. Any help ?

I have not thought about the usefulness of that, but I don't see why it couldn't be simulated.

Quote

07-12-2017 , 02:20 AM

#320

EspiritoDePoka

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 3

Hello,

I have a question:

Is it possible to get all data that swongsim simulates, even those that are below the 1% or 99% thresholds in form of text? That would be really great!

Salud,
Espirito

Quote

07-12-2017 , 10:47 PM

#321

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by EspiritoDePoka

Hello,

I have a question:

Is it possible to get all data that swongsim simulates, even those that are below the 1% or 99% thresholds in form of text? That would be really great!

Salud,
Espirito

Hi --

That is not possible at this time. I would be interested to hear what use you might have for it, if you care to share.

Cheers,
--Max

Quote

07-14-2017 , 05:08 PM

#322

EspiritoDePoka

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

Hi --

That is not possible at this time. I would be interested to hear what use you might have for it, if you care to share.

Cheers,
--Max

Yes sure:

I am planning on investing into staking some players and wanna calculate what the worst outcome possible over a certain period of time is. I think that bottom 1% of results is not enough to calculate my risk for and would like to see bottom 0.1%, since there is very big differences in swings when you look at the less likely results.

Cheers,
Espirito

Quote

07-14-2017 , 05:37 PM

#323

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by EspiritoDePoka

I will consider adding 0.1%, with the caution, as always, against over interpreting simulation results, especially when looking at relatively extreme situations (like the bottom 0.1%).

Quote

07-16-2017 , 01:04 PM

#324

EspiritoDePoka

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

I will consider adding 0.1%, with the caution, as always, against over interpreting simulation results, especially when looking at relatively extreme situations (like the bottom 0.1%).

Thank you very much! That would be great!
Yes I agree, have to be careful to not interpret too much in those simulations since they do not reflect real humans playing.

Cheers,
Espirito