UTILITY SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post) - Page 12 - Poker Software -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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[UTILITY] SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

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02-07-2017 , 02:27 PM

#276

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Thanks for the info. Will update soon.

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02-12-2017 , 08:04 PM

#277

RonaldoVamos

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 653

any luck blasts?

Quote

02-12-2017 , 08:47 PM

#278

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonaldoVamos

any luck blasts?

Sorry, no update yet. I did just take a look at the structure again and I think we can simulate it without an update. Whenever it pays 4 places, it pays 3rd and 4th both 10%. So my idea is to put both of those into a single 3rd place that pays 20%. We then also combine the finish distribution for 3rd and 4th. The snapshot below shows the setup. Once you've got it plugged in, save the settings for future use. I will add it as a preset when I get around to it.

Let me know if there's a flaw in my thinking.

Special instructions for 888 Blast setup:

Change players to 4.
Enter frequency, buyins (multipliers), prize pool dist, and player finish dist for stakes desired, according to www.888poker.com/official-blast/
Uncheck "Use finish dist for all" and enter your finish percentages manually.
For the top 2 tiers, be sure to combine your finish % for 3rd and 4th place into the box for 3rd place.

$30 888 Blast:

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02-13-2017 , 08:16 AM

#279

RonaldoVamos

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 653

YES! That seems right!! THANKS

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03-05-2017 , 11:08 AM

#280

RonaldoVamos

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 653

Can add $10 Spins please?

Prize Probability
$1,200,000.00 1 in 1,000,000
$12,000.00 100 in 1,000,000
$1,000.00 500 in 1,000,000
$100.00 1,000 in 1,000,000
$60.00 30,000 in 1,000,000
$40.00 171,601 in 1,000,000
$20.00 796,798 in 1,000,000
https://www.pokerstars.uk/poker/prom...d-go-for-free/

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03-05-2017 , 11:35 AM

#281

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Thanks for the info; I'll add at next update.

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03-06-2017 , 09:44 AM

#282

Anarkii14

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 58

Hi Max Cut,

can you have a look at iPoker? They`ve made a new distribution.

https://www.bet-at-home.com/sk/poker...omotions/74804

thank you

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03-06-2017 , 09:49 AM

#283

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Will do. Thanks for the info.

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03-06-2017 , 04:21 PM

#284

MakinItKane9

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 242

What program did you use to make this?

Quote

03-06-2017 , 04:32 PM

#285

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by MakinItKane9

What program did you use to make this?

It's programmed in C# via the free version of Visual Studio.

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03-18-2017 , 04:11 AM

#286

Federer20

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 381

Hi mate do you think beat the clock and blast are beatable?

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03-18-2017 , 08:41 AM

#287

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Federer20

Hi mate do you think beat the clock and blast are beatable?

It's a good question and it's important to distinguish between theoretically beatable (over an infinite number of games) and practically beatable (with acceptable risk, over a realistic sample). Unfortunately, I'm not familiar enough with those games and their player pools to answer the question reliably.

Quote

03-23-2017 , 12:52 PM

#288

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonaldoVamos

I wasn't able to find these, so I assume the promo has ended.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anarkii14

Hi Max Cut,

can you have a look at iPoker? They`ve made a new distribution.

https://www.bet-at-home.com/sk/poker...omotions/74804

thank you

Added these.

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03-23-2017 , 12:53 PM

#289

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Updated iPoker Twister.

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

Quote

03-24-2017 , 10:42 AM

#290

RonaldoVamos

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 653

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

I wasn't able to find these, so I assume the promo has ended.

Added these.

Still run! UK only.
Can add? Thx!

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03-24-2017 , 10:47 AM

#291

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonaldoVamos

Still run! UK only.
Can add? Thx!

Is there a link that has the payout distribution? Wondering how the top tiers split the prize pool.

Quote

03-24-2017 , 11:35 AM

#292

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonaldoVamos

Added this as PokerStars Spin&Go (UK $10)

Not 100% sure if the 83/8/8 split for the top 3 tiers is correct. Just let me know if it isn't.

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

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04-08-2017 , 07:10 AM

#293

Matthew_trade

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 4

Is Ipoker prize table up to date? I'm asking that because i can find different multiplier probability charts on Ipoker skins websites. So how do I know what is the current variance right now?

Also betfair live chat support just told me on different skins there can be different probabilites for multipliers (is that even possible it is real?)

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04-08-2017 , 09:02 AM

#294

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew_trade

Sorry I'm not familiar enough with the iPoker network to know if some of the player pool is segregated like that. So I'm not sure if some of the skins have out-of-date websites or if there are actually different probabilities within the network.

I will post if I find or hear more information.

SwongSim currently using numbers from: (for example)

poker.ladbrokes.com/en/tournaments/twister-poker

en.everestpoker.com/everest-poker-twister-poker-sit-go-jackpot-twister-tables-cpok_ev_twist_1

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04-25-2017 , 07:17 PM

#295

farreli80

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 117

hi, support for Microgaming Fish party?

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04-25-2017 , 07:36 PM

#296

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Do they list the odds somewhere?

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04-25-2017 , 10:24 PM

#297

farreli80

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 117

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

Do they list the odds somewhere?

I don't know, can't see them in their website.

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05-12-2017 , 02:37 PM

#298

Duncelanas

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 6,333

Any shot at adding Party's 4max Sng Hero games (including the new $100s there)? Tried to custom it in, but it's not perfect as is.

Edit: Saw this has been asked before. I might suggest just adding a flat 1/4 of the bounty to each finish as a quick and dirty way to get the structure in, if there's not a simple way to have more complete integration. Or perhaps a flat percentage that we can type in (ex .26, .27) that's applied over every game.

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05-12-2017 , 07:11 PM

#299

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duncelanas

I'll think about it some more. I'm out of town next week, so probably nothing very soon.

I wonder what are reasonable percentages for the bounty going to each finish position. It seems like the bounty would go more often to 1st than to 3rd, for example. (Never to 4th.)

1st: 40%
2nd: 30%
3rd: 20%
4th: 0%

On second thought, perhaps that's not even the right way to think about it since it's also player dependent.

Hero without bounties looks like it would be pretty swingy, given the big multiplier with a significant amount of EV going to the 8/1mil shot. Would be interesting to know how much bounties can affect it (for better or worse).

Last edited by Max Cut; 05-12-2017 at 07:19 PM.

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05-13-2017 , 12:34 AM

#300

Duncelanas

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 6,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

I wonder what are reasonable percentages for the bounty going to each finish position. It seems like the bounty would go more often to 1st than to 3rd, for example. (Never to 4th.)

1st: 40%
2nd: 30%
3rd: 20%
4th: 0%

On second thought, perhaps that's not even the right way to think about it since it's also player dependent.

I agree with both of these things, but I'm not sure if the bounty distribution matters too much in practice when we're running samples with thousands of games. On average, we'll win the bounty 1/4 of the time (plus a little skill edge), right? The fact that it's not distributed evenly doesn't seem to matter too much here.

Quote:

Hero without bounties looks like it would be pretty swingy, given the big multiplier with a significant amount of EV going to the 8/1mil shot. Would be interesting to know how much bounties can affect it (for better or worse).

The $100s (https://www.partypoker.com/whats-goi...etts-hero.html) also have a very different structure, not sure exactly how it shakes out. There are more 2x, fewer 4x, and far fewer top 3 (100x+) multis, with substantially more 6/10/50x games going off. I'd guess the variance is decently higher, but regularly spiking 50x games has to mitigate that some?

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