Add this month's results so far (where i've run at an awesome 0.94ROI over 733 SnGs) to my last post:





Luck: -849.6%
Bucks: -3105.32$

i run so good

</end of "i hate poker boo hoo hijack rant">

May I ask where your ROI of 0.94% would end if you add these 3105.32$ as earnings?

Would it be a ROI that you think is realistic for your poker skills?

I'm not sure - i don't know how to work that out. All I know is that my roi for the first sample of 5815 hands was probably somewhere between about 7-9%. (I can check the exact number later this evening).

It's still using 60/40 for all 6-max? If you have to pick one can we do 65/35 since that's what Stars/FT use?

It's the dooooooooomswitch! I just wish they would turn mine off for a little bit...

Juk

My exact ROI for my first sample of 5815 hands was 7.44%. Assuming this is my accurate current roi (it's probably higher because this sample set included a learning curve) then my expected earn for my second sample set would be $2690.38 (the second sample set is now 751 SnGs @ 1.21roi - i've played a few more since my previous post).

So therefore, in answer to the question, if i add the 3105.32% it would give a realistic roi for my poker skills.

Has anyone else tried this software with a decent sample size of party hands? I'm curious as to what sort of results other people have.

I wonder how much that people have folded hands before we push ("bunching effect"?) affects the results...

I am more likely to be pushing all in if there has been no action before me. There being no action before me I think indicates there is a smaller chance of high cards being in the folded players hands, and so a higher chance of high cards in the remaining deck. As the callers of our pushes are more likely to do so with high cards, their hand may connect with the remaining deck more frequently meaning that their equity is actually higher (and so ours lower) than in a simple random deck with only the knowledge of each players hole cards.

Thoughts?




With regard to the date selector, I tried using "Windows Classic" theme rather than using the standard vista aero thing and the date selector works fine.

I think this won't make much of a difference, especially considering the most equity jumps around when it's three or four handed.

Are you having the feeling it doesn't use the 65/35? Actually it should choose the right payout structure automatically:

Paradise Poker: 70 | 30 - Full Tilt: 65 | 35 - Pokerstars: 65 | 35 - Party: 60 | 40 - Ultimate Bet: 70 | 30 - Absolute Poker: 65 | 35 - Prima: 65 | 35 - Poker Room: 65 | 35 - Cryptologi: 65 | 35 - B2B: 65 | 35 - All others: 65 | 35

But I haven't double-checked many 6-max games yet. Possible that it is still buggy in that point. Also, I'm not quite sure if all of these are correct. I keep those updated in this little FAQ

Not sure if I got you right.

In most cases the biggest part of an estimated +EV push comes from the fact that we expect our opponent to fold.

If our opponent calls with the top 10% of hands and we are holding aces which are a substantial part of his calling range then his calling propability is only 7.8% instead of 10%. Right?

Now, you are saying that IF we get called, we shouldnt expect a random deck but a more high-cards weighted deck?

I don't see how this has an effect on our luck. If you have the better hand you are expected to win. If you loose, you are unlucky.

I was rather saying that on the occasions we push we shouldn't expect a random deck (which only matters to SnG LA when we are called). For example it is folded to us in the SB 6 handed, we push 72o and BB calls with AKo. It seems much more likely that the 4 opponents who folded were holding sevens and twos, than aces or kings, and so 7s and 2s more likely "dead", and so the value used for Win % slightly inaccurate.

I tried playing around with PokerStove though and the effect on equity seems smaller than I imagined. Also, as Slim Pickens says equity changes most when we are short handed and the effect of folded hands is even smaller then.

The effect is probably so incredibly small it isn't worth thinking about.

The effect is also reversible when you are the one calling, typically your own hand selection for calling will be tighter than average, although you don't call as often the effect would be greater. So even if the effect was significant it should even itself out to some extent.

Sorry, made a computational mistake as usual. It looks fine.

Bodypull, What does the "Ended" filter do?

I've only imported my last two days of 22s so far:



I'm down $1088 (in Sklansky bucks) in 234 SNGs, but only down ~$450 in real cash, so if all had gone as expected I should be up $638?

Has anybody else tried this with a bigger sample of Party hands and actually been lucky? I have about 25000 Party 11s/22s/33s that I could run it on, but they are all in my PGSQL DB and it's sooooo slow to re-import them into Access... Any ETA on the PGSQL support?

I also have (or had) about 8000 Pacific SNGs in an Access DB - will it work with Pacific as there are no summaries for Pacific SNGs?

EDIT: Also, to be sure this is working properly, would it not be possible to backtest it using datamined hands? Party shows mucked hands at showdown, so there is no reason you couldn't backtest all the all-ins and see if your app is actually converging.

Juk

PS: I'm just in the process of importing ~2.5k SNGs from December (where I think I ran well). Will post the results when Access finally stops chugging...

The real-time monitoring is a useless feature and I think it might be behind a lot of the random freezing. I would like to disable it. It's way more important to include the non-Hero all-in hands in the luck calculation.