Quote:
Originally Posted by Annuit20
THIS
OKAY
I think if we look at some basic numbers, some pretty clear distinctions will emerge. Lets compare some equity estimations between SitNGo Wizard, holdemresources.net, and SnG Solver. Calculating stack equity is going to be the *core* of any kind of strategy analysis we eventually want to make.
Lets imagine a simple scenario... but one where the players are short stacked, short handed, and near the bubble. We've got 5 players with 500 chips each. Blinds are 100/50 with a 500-300-200 payout structure.
So first thing actually, lets see what a "standard" ICM calculator will say about this scenario:
Code:
"Standard" ICM
Equity
UTG: 200.0
CO: 200.0
BTN: 200.0
SB: 200.0
BB: 200.0
Since the standard ICM model only takes stack sizes and payouts as inputs, it can only think that equal stacks must have the same equity. Everyone (hopefully) knows this does not match reality. We know that the 500 chips on the BTN is worth more than the 500 chips UTG. We may not be able to say how much more, be we know that it must be more because of the advantage of position. So thats problem #1 for the standard ICM model.
Problem #2 is that it doesnt make sense that the SB and BB have the same equity since they are forced to commit some of their chips into the pot whether they like it or not. Clearly, they should have at least some amount of reduced equity relative to the BTN since they have donated chips to the pot that are now vulnerable to attack.
Already, it should hopefully be clear that standard ICM all by itself has some serious issues.
Okay, let put our scenario into the calculator at holdemresources.net:
Okay, well there's clearly some improvement in representing the loss of equity from the stacks in the blinds. But right away, we see the values from the other positions dont match what we know to be true in reality.
According to this anaylsis the stack UTG is more valuable than the stack on the BTN. If you were sitting at the BTN in this tournament would you want to trade seats with the UTG player? Me neither.
SitNGo Wizard doesnt seem to have an "equity display" that just shows the value of each stack (unless I'm missing something... someone please correct me if I am). But you can get a "EQ Fold" for each stack. This is not exactly the same thing as stack equity, but these values should follow the same pattern as what a calculated total equity would be.
Code:
SitNGo Wizard
"EQ Fold"
UTG: 216.0
CO: 209.8
BTN: 203.7
SB: 189.5
BB: 168.3
Here again, we've got some numbers that are not what we should expect. Like holdemresrouces.net, SitNGo Wizard is also trying to tell us that the stack UTG has an equity advantage over the rest of the table.
So now lets see what SnG Solver says.
Code:
SnG Solver
Equity
UTG: 189.1
CO: 216.4
BTN: 218.3
SB: 201.3
BB: 174.9
Ah ha! At last, some numbers that make sense...
The BTN has the most equity, followed by the CO. Next, even though the SB has to put up some "dead" equity, the fact that it has good position (both for attack potential on the BB and that it has a long way to go before the blinds) has made up for it. Finally, the BB is clearly the loser here... lots of "dead" equity, it is vulnerable to attack and the next hand it must put up even more of its stack in the SB. These are numbers that are consistent with good poker thinking.... and therefore the best chance to a good foundation to support later analysis.
Again, I am not trying to bash either holdemresources or SitNGo Wizard... they have both been a tremendous benefit to the poker community. But its also true that they both have some fundamental limitations that keep their analysis from being the best possible.
Last edited by sng_jason; 09-14-2011 at 04:52 AM.
Reason: typos