Yeah, if Smash or Awake are getting a 2.0 in May they're probably auto-renewals. Anything less it gets dicey.

Any guesses on Smash's premiere numbers? The amount of advertising and pre-screening the pilot everywhere has NBC really betting big on this show. My guess is Smash gets 12 million viewers and a 3.5 in the demo.

Eh - I don't know about that. Really depends on how expensive the production is, how much they believe in it, and what else they have in development. I'd agree with nunn and that a 2.5+ is necessary for 100% renewal, and anything lower it's a question mark (for Smash specifically).

Remember - for the economics of the business - NBC needs a hit, like a legit hit 3.0+ to turn it around. While they do have to bring back some 2.0'ish shows just to keep some schedule stability, what they really should be doing is cleaning house. This way, they give themselves way more at-bats to launch a bonified hit and turn the Network around.

I don't know much about this stuff, but I'm curious about what like rock bottom would be for NBC. How bad does one of these networks have to be before they start getting "demoted" on the TV chain or something? It just seems insane that they've been struggling for this long and don't seem to be showing signs of improvement.

Todd, I'm sorry but we're going to have disagree on something. NBC has been hemorrhaging viewers for quite some time. This is a situation where the schedule needs to be blown up. A 1.6 average is not acceptable at any level of network TV. There's a good chance that Smash is going to buck the scripted TV trend, and I expect the Pilot to premiere at least at a 3.0. What you're failing to understand is that 2.0 is just a random number I pulled out for a premiere to say it's in trouble. Almost zero shows retain all of their audience or grow from the premiere. If it gets a 2.0 premiere, it will most likely have a 1.8ish second episode. Then it could drop further. I have been able to accurately predict new dramas success rates from their premieres quite easily. If a police procedural starts below a 2.0, it's DOA. Typically, if a sitcom starts below a 2.5 (NBC is an exception), it's DOA. Some of the cheaper sitcoms have more leeway, but there's just no way most shows retain 100 percent of their initial audience.

Again, I am predicting Smash to be successful, because it has a perfect lead in. This is probably the only really good decision NBC has made all year, but you can guarantee this show is expensive.

I'll give you my list for keys to a show's success. Plug in the various favorite shows you have, and try to find more than a few rare exceptions where I am wrong.

1. Ratings
2. Cost
3. Quality

If a show fails in two of the three areas, it is almost always canned. Last year's notable exception was **** My Dad Says, which would have been picked up on any network but CBS. If I were in charge at NBC, which they are very glad I am not, I would seriously consider canceling 9 of their 12 remaining TV shows, that have aired as of today. Regardless of what you think of my thoughts, the only shows I would retain are Parks and Recreation, Community, and Grimm. The best of the new sitcoms is actually (I can't believe I'm saying this) Are You There, Chelsea? The reason I would retain P&R and Community is to get them to syndication. Right now, if there are any spinoff ideas of The Office in the works, they should get looked at, because, even though it's the highest rated comedy, it's nowhere near what it was at in its prime, and it is very expensive (even with the loss of Carrell).

Just to give you a practical example:

Last night's episode of Up All Night, with The Office lead in had a 1.8 and 3.76 million viewers. Its premiere was a 4.2 with 12.612 million viewers.

One of the reasons NBC used to be the king of TV was because they made shows that resonated with people across all of the different demographics. Sometimes those shows take awhile to take hold, but they eventually do. All of their hit shows hit smart demos, LCD demos, and almost everywhere in between (minus the fact that many of their hit shows were very "white"). You could watch the show for what you wanted to see. In the case of P&R, Community, and The Office, they have all the characters in place for success, they just don't have premises that all kinds of demographics are interested in. Take a look at CBS's successful shows. What is it about them that makes their shows work? It's almost always because it appeals to a wide demographic.

These days, NBC is basically interested in insulting the audience's intelligence with their shows. While Chelsea is pretty good, Whitney is terrible. Most of their new shows are re-packages of old shows, and we're just expected to take it. Then, you'll have shows like The Event, which get off to great starts, and then implode with stupidity. You have train wrecks like Law & Order: Los Angeles, a show I bet they wish they still had now.

The biggest issue I have with the way you talk, and that a lot of other people talk in regards to NBC, is that the bar is so low that they can just keep lowering it (if Smash fails, then I seriously think you can kiss Greenblatt goodbye). I seriously doubt they want to be considered another CW. They will certainly blow up their whole schedule before going that route. However, the way they've been going this season, there is nowhere but down with what they have. In my opinion, NBC is one of the greatest networks of all time, and it is really really sad for me to see how far they've fallen.

NBC is very close to this. It's been getting beaten by Telemundo consistently on Mondays.

NBC deserves this. They have canceled quite a few decent shows over the years and put all their eggs in a Thursday night comedy lineup that is terrible. I know this isn't a popular statement on 2p2 but their comedies are awful. NBC should just blow themselves up and start over.

I really liked the Smash pilot, but I don't know how Joe Public will react to it. They do seem to like singing shows though.

I think your guesses are realistic, and anything below a 3.0 will probably be very alarming to NBC. The biggest question is whether having the Pilot available early will hurt the premiere's ratings.

Tim, is it serialized, like is it about the making of a single production?

Reviews have been very positive but a few critics have commented on how low the traffic has been for their Smash articles.

http://www.metacritic.com/tv/smash/season-1

I'm betting we will see at least 1 Smash promo and 1 The Voice promo per hour in the Super Bowl. If it can't get noticed during that game, there's no hope for it. It's also the only football game where there are a significant amount of women watching, that don't normally watch football. That certainly should help it. NBC can't say they promoted it poorly, if it fails (The Firm was promoted really poorly).

Yes, it looks like it's going to follow a single Broadway production from initial auditioning all the way through to the opening, perhaps beyond, with a focus on all the drama that goes on behind the scenes.

I'm not crazy about some of the supporting characters, but I believe McPhee will be able to carry the show on her back. She's that good in it.

It sounds like it has a good story foundation. I think they will probably be better off doing a new Broadway show each season, but I guess you won't know until they finish the first season.

Oh, did they play it straight, or was it played at all campy? In the final season of Law & Order: Criminal Intent, there was an episode about a Broadway production that was very well received by people into that, and actually had higher ratings than normal for a LOCI episode. The LOCI episode was played very campy.

nunnehi,

My arguments are:

1. I think it's a pretty futile exercise to guess whether a show will be renewed based solely on the premier numbers.

2. If you cancel everything what do you replace it with? When a show like Work It gets picked up, it makes you wonder about the quality of all the pilots that got cut.

Yes, it's hard to say where it would go beyond the first season, if it makes it that far.

The pilot at least, was played very straight. In fact, maybe too straight, if I had to make one criticism. This is no Glee for sure. The characters that write, choreograph, audition etc. for the Broadway productions are very high-strung and serious. Perhaps that's just realistic. But I think the show could maybe benefit if they added a little lightness and humor at times. Maybe they'll add some of that as they go.

Edit: By the way, if anyone wants to watch the pilot, it's available here (completely legal, posted by NBC):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...v=Uu4oYy8VgHQ#

Haha - well, the way to look at it is there are (broadly) 2 types of TV Networks with different distribution: Broadcast and Cable Networks.

Broadcast Networks: they hit 99% of TV Homes in the US because they both 1) retransmit their local station signal in all US markets to all US cable/satellite/telco companies (so you get it when you subscribe to some package) and 2) broadcast their signal over the air (which is still 12% of the population)

Cable Networks: provide a direct feed to their affiliates which are Cable/Satellite/Telcos. If they are fully distributed (which all the big cable networks are like ESPN, USA, TNT etc) - they only hit ~88% of all TV Homes (so relative to a broadcast network, it has much less distribution). To look even deeper, HBO is a premium cable network, and is only in ~25% of all TV Homes).

So NBC is a broadcast network, and would be compared against the other ones which include ABC, FOX, NBC, Univision (far and away the #1 spanish language network in the country), Telemundo and CW. Within this group, there are the Big 4 Major Nets (ABC/FOX/NBC/CBS).

To your question: if NBC's overall ratings slipped below those of its peer group, and more to like CW ratings or something, it would lose complete relevance. This is basically impossible though because NBC has Sunday Night Football.

It's really not. From a show's premiere there's a fairly predictable amount of viewer erosion and by Week 3 you pretty much know what it's going to do. So not sure if Nunn mentioned this - but if Smash *premieres* at like a 2.0 or so, when you factor in the predictable erosion, yes, it's 100% getting cancelled.

Al, they kind of invented Sunday Night Football, but do you remember how long their contract is? I seem to think I have recently read that all of the major contracts were just extended after the lockout ended. I would watch NBC every night, if they showed football every night. That said, I still watch a lot of NBC shows.

It's played about as straight as you could expect a television musical to be.

I saw the premiere and thought, while it was fine, it's exactly the type of show where I'll watch 3 or 4 episodes and be bored with it once the novelty wears off. The biggest problem might be Debra Messing's character. She's supposed to be a veteran Broadway producer but there are moments where her behaviour leaves you wondering if she's ever even been to the theater. Also there is this whole adoption plot that doesn't have anything to do with anything. Ok, maybe 3 episodes max before I check out.

NBC has been advertising the hell out of it and the premiere is the post Superbowl show this year. Not even NBC can **** up the Superbowl, right? You would expect huge numbers coming off the SB but Smash isn't exactly catering to the NFL demographic so it will be interesting to see how may people sit patiently through all the post game interviews and trophy presentations just to watch Smash.

I'll go big with 3.9 and 14 million viewers with a fast fade - sitting at 2.2 by episode 3. I predict that once the advertising push is over and the conceit starts to wear thin it's going to nosedive.

Yes, that was one of the points I made in my tl;dr. I would be pretty shocked if Smash premieres below a 3.0, which would mean that 2.5 is its key number, and cost is its biggest issue (though I think they would retain it at around a 2.0, no chance at 1.9). Week 4 will probably tell us everything we need to know.

nunn - CBS, NBC and FOX all just renewed their NFL contracts through 2022. (Current deal runs through 2013, they extended early for another 9 years.)

The Voice is actually the post Super Bowl premiere, and they're airing Smash on Monday, after the next episode of The Voice. I think your number is too high, unless you think it's actually airing directly after the Super Bowl, in which case those numbers would be too low. I think 3 episodes is a good barometer for whether the audience invests, and the 4th episode rating will be the key to know where it's headed.

Well - the nice thing about the SB (from a marketing perspective) is it's not just the NFL demo, it's pretty much the entire TV watching universe!

Hm - I'll go 3.0'ish A18-49. And it settles into a 2.2'ish A18-49 rating. And probably comes back next season.

Niiice, NBC will stay relevant for at least 10 more years! Maybe they will have fixed the problems by then.

Ah,I thought it was the post Superbowl show. Well then yeah, 3.9/14m is ludicrous for just a regular Monday night premiere. Still anything below 3 would have to be regarded as a failure considering everything they have invested in promotion.