Earliest you'll have a good idea will probably be next Tuesday morning. It's not likely it started off bad in the ratings, but if the show sucks, it will tank hard next week.
This Is Us is probably going to also have good DVR numbers. It had a tiny shrink from episode 1 to 2 in 18-49 numbers. If NBC is smart (they're not), they'll pull the trigger on a renewal in a few weeks or less. I think this is their highest rated scripted show by a wide margin, and appears to have connected with audiences in a big way, based on the tiny drop off in viewers from episode 1 to 2.
My wife thought this would be interesting so we watched it. First episode was intriguing, second one not so much. It's a toss-up on if we'll watch the third. My guess is a fair drop from episode 2 to 3.
I'd be surprised if it Mr. Robots half its viewers away, and I think it's still going to remain NBC's highest rated scripted show by a wide margin, even with a somewhat significant drop. We'll know tomorrow morning if a large portion of the audience agrees with you.
L+7 ratings for premiere week are out, and I think they are very instructive (fyi L+3 is generally about .2 or .3 less than the L+7 with most viewers watching within the first 3 days of air). I'll list the highlights and lowlights (with comments) below. The ones worth noting the most will be bolded. The first number is L+SD, and the second is L+7.
The Blacklist: 1.3 to 2.7
How to Get Away with Murder: 1.4 to 2.9
Quantico 1.0 to 2.0 (still on the bubble for Sunday, but probably on the good side of it...for now, as it literally cannot fall to a 1.8 in L+7 and expect to be renewed)
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.: 1.1 to 2.2 (this is a huge bump) Designated Survivor: 2.2 to 4.4 (WOW!) The Last Man on Earth: 0.9 to 1.6 (this is bad news for this show)
Blindspot: 1.3 to 2.3 (right where it has to stay to get renewed) Rosewood: 0.7 to 1.2 (show is so dead)
Chicago Med: 1.4 to 2.4 (same thing applies here that applies to Blindspot) Secrets and Lies: 1.0 to 1.7 (this should be purged from the schedule within the next few weeks) Scream Queens: 1.0 to 1.7 (show is likely very done, especially with its huge drop in L+SD viewers in week 2)
Gotham and Lucifer performed as expected in DVR, making Lucifer on track with a renewal along with Gotham's obvious one.
Chicago P.D.: 1.6 to 2.7 (continues to crush in DVR ratings) Notorious: 1.1 to 1.8 (still getting canceled no matter what ABC says, but it probably won't be first) Pitch: 1.1 to 1.8 (not getting it done in L+3, unless FOX loves this show, it will not make it) This Is Us: 2.8 to 4.6 (I stand by my assessment that this is as slam dunk a renewal as Empire is for FOX, but am very interested to see next week's L+7 numbers before firmly committing to that) The Exorcist: 1.0 to 1.6 (LOL, will this be the first show FOX ever pulls before 13 air?) New Girl: 1.2 to 1.9 (these are plenty for renewal on DVR for FOX, but I'll need to see week 2's numbers for confirmation) The Good Place: 1.4 to 2.2 (will definitely get renewed if this is near its floor in DVR, as this is essentially the same as season 4 or so ratings for Parks and Rec in L+SD and L+7) Brooklyn Nine-Nine: 1.1 to 1.7 (firmly on the bubble, these are near Mindy's numbers so maybe Hulu will also come calling for this show after this season)
Once Upon a Time: 1.3 to 2.0 (this is strong for Sunday on ABC, but week 2 fell a lot in L+SD, so still not willing to say this show is safe) MacGyver: 1.7 to 2.6 (CBS would renew everything forever at 1.8 on Fridays in L+7, to give you an indication of how this show is doing) Speechless: 2.0 to 2.9 (all the rest of ABC's Mon-Thurs. comedies are doing about this spread in DVR, so if Speechless holds ratings fairly well, it's a good sign for the show) Lethal Weapon: 2.2 to 3.2 (was that sound a collective orgasm at FOX?) Dr. Ken: 0.9 to 1.2 (this show could not be more done if it tried, but don't expect it to go anywhere soon) Son of Zorn: 1.1 to 1.4 (these are legit awful numbers, but it went up to a 1.6 this week, so I have no clue what's going to happen with this show yet)
All the rest is basically nothing to see here type stuff that's very clear with what's going on L+SD ratings. Feel free to ask any questions about this, or about anything else I didn't mention.
Week 2 L+3 ratings are in, and I noticed I didn't mention Code Black in the above post. I'm predicting one of two things for the show. It's either getting moved to Sunday (Elementary's spot), or it's getting canceled. It had relatively strong L+3 ratings (1.2 to 1.8), though its ratings went down in week 3. Those rough numbers would be fine for Sunday.
The ones that showed the most solidifying in their numbers were Quantico and The Last Man on Earth. Quantico's week 2 L+3 numbers should be plenty to return on Sunday (1.0 to 1.7, which is an identical L+3 to Once Upon a Time). If they fall to a 1.5 in the L+3, I think it's done, but I'm reasonably sure this is a fairly stable number. Essentially, if ABC can bring back S.H.I.E.L.D., they can bring back Quantico. The Last Man on Earth's DVR spread in L+3 is right in line with all their comedies. If it can hold the 1.1 to 1.6 spread frequently, it should be renewed for Sundays. If New Girl and B99 get renewed, this would be a slam dunk if it can stay above a 1.0 for most of the season in L+SD. It doesn't have to stay above a 1.0, but that would make it easier for the execs. The Spring numbers actually might play a more important part in whether it gets renewed, as football is certainly affecting the viewership of this show.
Elementary hadn't aired as of the last post's numbers, but CBS would be insane to not make this the last season of that show. Code Black seems to be the best candidate for that slot next year, but we'll see over the coming weeks what that show does in the ratings. I'm still heavily leaning toward cancellation, but have an open mind based on the most recent L+3. Madam Secretary also hadn't aired as of the last post's numbers. Its L+3 is anemic (1.1 to 1.4), but it's season 3. You should anticipate nothing but a renewal for that show.
The next big update won't be before next Friday, or it will be the following Monday or Tuesday. MacGyver (had a massive drop on Friday, though it might adjust up in the finals), Son of Zorn, and Code Black are probably going to be the most interesting numbers to see in the set, so there's nothing interesting to see besides MacGyver.
The race is now on to see who will go first, Conviction or Secrets and Lies. I'd be pretty surprised if Conviction is still on the schedule for its 4th episode, unless it has zero drop from week 1 to week 2.
ugh, shows like MacGyver & Lethal Weapon doing well mean we have a million dumb reboots in our future?
B99 & New Girl doing a crossover thing, should be interesting to see how that works out
any idea on the production costs of Son of Zorn, given how they mix animation with live action? it's an interesting production, hoping the writing will improve ... it has the makings of a good show, but seems like it probably won't get there
Lethal Weapon was a good one to mine, MacGyver was not. There's really no upside to rebooting MacGyver. I think all this stuff is on the back end of the reboot frenzy that's been in development for at least the last 5 or 6 years. Most of the reboots haven't gone, which is good. I think Lethal Weapon is a good property with the right people, and it's got the leads that can make it work. They made a terrible choice going with McG for the first two episodes as director, but it should still be able to turn into something (haven't seen the third yet so don't know who directed it or if the comedy tone was fixed as McG is clueless about comedy).
The B99/New Girl crossover will likely work out as expected, no increase in viewers for either show. It doesn't make much sense to do that for two low rated shows that probably share a big chunk of audience, but whatever, FOX is a weird network.
I have no idea what the costs are for Son of Zorn, but the animation stuff seems as cheaply done (doesn't appear they're going for verisimilitude) from commercials I've seen as a show I worked on in the mid-90s featuring Inspector Gadget (was also a live/animation mix). That was the most expensive part of making that show, but things have advanced a long way since.
Its ratings are all over the map. If it can actually give a consistent ratings number, it would be easy to tell its fate. Right now, it's on the good side of renewal chances, but it needs to stabilize. Its bottom numbers are probably close to renewal on FOX for animation, but overall the show might be more expensive than something like Bob's Burgers. Since I don't know what kind of locations they're using for the show (since I don't watch it), I can't tell you how it compares to a typical live action show.
Speechless is a sitcom about a family with a special needs kid, and that's all I know about it.
My wife thought this would be interesting so we watched it. First episode was intriguing, second one not so much. It's a toss-up on if we'll watch the third. My guess is a fair drop from episode 2 to 3.
The head of USA needs to go. He ran that network into the ground. It's a shell of the fun place it used to be before he took over. He doubled down on the Mr. Robot style, and you see what happened. He turned USA into a niche channel...lol. This is why marketing execs shouldn't run networks/cable channels.
lol, but I would say he was a very good marketing exec. He was responsible for USA's "Characters Welcome" campaign, which was a great multi-year campaign. Then they gave him the reins to the ship. Of course they didn't realize ships don't have reins.
There are good marketing execs in the industry, but yeah, you don't want them developing anything, you want them selling ideas. That's all he's done with Mr. Robot...attempting to sell a bad money losing idea by blitz bombing everything.
Watching the World Series Game 3 right now and was thinking about how this is probably crushing ratings. First home game for the Cubs in a World Series game in forever and america is buying into it. Interested where it will stack up with other recent big sporting events.
Just like to say that I love this thread. Thank you to all that contribute especially nunnehi.
Friday's typically a light night for TV, so it might be the highest rated of this year's games so far. I think this is a higher rated World Series than last year (haven't checked to verify it), but it still falls below typical Sunday Night Football games (at least for the first two games).
