wow ive always felt that splitting the votes is ultra risky yet somehow almost never gets punished.

Finally it happened, RIP fishbach.

Spencer is the huge favourite at this point imo, 75%+ to win

Jeremy 2nd highest chance probly

I guess you pretty much have to plan for idols being played because there's so many of them floating around (although I don't know if that's normal).

This has been a great season...not sure why Jeremy bothered, but I like his loyalty. And Fish splitting the votes...what?

Deep thought of the day:

Why don't the cast members ever bring raincoats with them to the show? It has to be miserable to be drenched in rain for 3 days straight. If it was me I would bring with me a raincoat with swimwear underneath and 2 pairs of clean underwear. I'd be all dry and toasty if it ever rained.

I feel like there are some rules about what you can and cannot wear. Or they tell people what to wear. Otherwise why are people wearing suits and stupid stuff like that some seasons.

I like Wentworth's chances of winning right now.

Lol nobody is 75% chance of winning. Sorry

Joe not winning immunity completely changes that

The thing i dont understand about the split is that after you take Joe's vote out, if everything goes according to plan then there's nobody voting for anyone besides Joe and abi. You can literally plan a 7-1 split where if everyone flips its stil 4-4-1. As played even if spencer had stayed loyal he was supposed to vote abi and abi would have left over Joe.

I'm not defending Stephen's splitting of the votes, but I would be very curious to see just how many people who are saying "OMG he's dumb for splitting!" were also saying when Kelley saved herself, "OMG they're dumb for *not* splitting!"

RIP Fishbach. His arc, character story, or whatever you want to call it was one of the most enjoyable ones I've ever seen. Maybe I'm biased because I love him, but I think his "character" this season was one of the best and most enjoyable presences we've seen in recent memory.

I read that the producers calls the cast members to some fake meeting or whatever and once you're there they immediately whisk you away to the island to start playing the game. The dumb ones or recruits would show up in something stupid like their Amani suits and nothing else. That's why you see people wear the dumbest things to the island to play the game. Makes sense when you think about it, like why would you ever wear a suit and tie knowing you're going to the island for 39 days straight.

They were absolutely dumb for not splitting on Kelly, it didn't matter who went between her and Ciara

It was absolutely dumb to do whatever fish was trying to do, I still can't figure out who he thought everyone was voting for and why abi needed to get extra votes "if Joe had an idol"

From fish perspective:
Joe - voting for... Abi?
Fish / Jeremy / Tasha / Spencer - Joe
Kimmie - Joe
Abi - Joe?
Wentworth - Joe?
Country dude - Joe?


So... Why does he a) need to use his power or b) send three votes to abi (only need 2)?

If he assumes the question marks are voting for someone else, exactly who does he think that is?

After looking at this again, there is a green rail(s) as part of a barrier around the injured party. There are no green rails or barriers around the challenge area. Leaning towards a family or crew member being injured.

I think the tribal before scared him due to threat it made him and he just wanted to burn it ASAP.

Yeah the split should just be keith and spencer on Abi. Everybody else votes Joe. And I'm pretty sure thats true whether or not you trust spencer

I'm wondering how this will affect strategy around "the advantage" if it appears in future seasons. Is it worth the wrong kind of added attention it can draw? It didn't matter for Dan, since he was so widely disliked that everyone wanted him to stay; but for Fish, it seemed like it helped seal his exit, although of course how he (re)acted because of it didn't help matters.

Also he was very aggressive in trying to swing things and control the game which made him a target anyway, the extra bonus would have been worth it if he didn't botch it

Was there a new episode last night?

There was a two hour episode.

They were dumb for not splitting there. What were they even worried about? Someone like Joe (who had Wiggles and Savage still in the game) jumping to the Witches' side? Keith? If not those two then they were worried about Spencer and Tasha, and yet they were putting full faith in Spencer two weeks down the road (after he had voted against them).

The majority voting bloc did the same lazy examination of the probability of Wentworth having an idol that week, as the old Bayon seemed to do this week when they gave Joe a high probability of having one.

(Joe, Kimmi, Tasha, and Spencer discuss Wentworth's idol probabilities)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm1FsbZD5-4

Poor application of Survivor mechanics, or poor reads, in both cases. I'm not saying that these were LDO decisions to make, but considering all the variables, they were avoidable mistakes.

There are also a lot of mechanical reasons (he gives away an idol, he shines a target on himself that he is more likely to have another, he re-introduces an idol into the game) that made Jeremy playing the idol on Stephen a bad move.

Bit too much Fancy Play Syndrome from Jeremy and Stephen this season. I would even say that trusting Spencer perhaps in part because you are friends outside the game or because you planned to work with him before the season began falls in the realm of FPS.

There's no real foolproof strategy though if you think that:

a. Joe might have an idol
b. Abi might have an idol
c. Spencer might not be trustworthy

You just have to pick which of those is most/least probable and go with it. Fish guessed wrong, that's really all that happened.

Yea exactly. People should realize he might have another.

Also very good point which I also thought of. He re introduces a new idol into play.

Btw is that always the case? Once a hidden idol is used. Another is put in play?

For me the only thing I really don't understand is WHY would Jeremy play an idol for Stephen instead of saying "Yo Stephen, I think they're gunning for you, you should tell me what your advantage is so we can work this out together." Hell, even showing Stephen the idol wouldve been a reasonable play if he's seriously considering playing it, it builds the same kind of trust but it lets you plan much better when you have all the information. They couldve come up with so many awesome things, like revealing the advantage at the start of the tribal discussion, pretending that Stephen had an idol and let him show it to people like Abi to **** up the dynamics, etc...

Second thing that baffles me is why he didn't warn Stephen after Spencer made it super clear they were going after him.

Jeremy is just a terrible player. Trading an idol for a super loyal ally could be good, but at least try to do something interesting with it first.

I rewatched the tribal where Cierra went and it's clear that the only people that Fish can 100% trust is Jeremy and to a lesser extent Kimmi. The rest all wanted him out including Tasha and Spencer.

There was no foolproof plan for Fish to get out of this jam this week. He had to know that all the reasons that everyone wanted him out the first time excluding Jeremy and Kimmi are still in place. He could only hope that with Joe not winning immunity would be enough to get the target off himself. Fish can't assume that he was safe this week and get fsp with the voting.

Here's what Fish should've done assuming his first target is Joe and secondary target is Abi. Use his advantage to nullify Joes' vote leaving Fish(x2) + Kimmi and Jeremy (these are the only 2 people he could 100% trust for the vote). Put this vote on Abi. Tell everyone else Tasha, Spencer, Kelly, Abi and Keith to vote for Joe. That's 5 votes on Joe and 4 on Abi. This accomplishes a few things, first if Joe has an idol he has to use it and also it tests Spencer and Tasha's loyalty.

The only way for a blindside of either him or Jeremy to happen is that ALL 5 of them have to flip because they'll need all 5 votes. Seeing as how Tasha is pretty close to Jeremy and Stephen this week and how adamant she is to get Joe out it's his best shot to stay safe this week because BOTH Tasha and Spencer had to flip in order for Joe or Abi not to go home. By Fish breaking up his 2 votes if left the door open for Spencer to gather enough votes to flip.

Jeremy is a terrible player

lol at terrible player, compared to what? So far in the past few episodes he's convinced Savage to not target Stephen, found an idol and played an idol correctly. He could have played better, but saying he's terrible means your standards for non-terrible have to be stupidly high