3->2 makes ICs far less valuable, but so much so that it can be correct to throw the challenges.

KOS, here's my .02 on why I don't think 3-->2 tribes is so terrible for a good player.

With 3 tribes of 6, a good player will be an influential player within a majority group of at least 3. Let's say it goes to 2 tribes at 16. The most common scenario is that the tribes will be made up of a few players from each previous tribe, and is very unlikely that a previous tribe will have majority numbers on a new tribe. To pull that off, a tribe would have to lose 0 or 1 players within the first 2 tribals, and then their whole team would have to end up together on the new tribe. Having all 5 or 6 of you on one tribe of 8 is very very unlikely, yes?

So the most likely scenario is that all 3 previous tribes will be in the minority once they go to 2 tribes, so the goal is for 2 previous tribes to ally. The better players are going to be much, much more successful at this than worse players because they will carry the traits that also gave them the ability to be part of the major alliance in their original tribe: ability to persuade and influence, flexibility, challenge prowess (which this early in the game should still be viewed by the other players as an asset and not a threat), flexibility, etc.

IOW, if they do break to 2, it will still be early enough in the game that no good player should be at any significant disadvantage unless they are incredibly unlucky.

My prayer for this season: Skupin gets to final 4 and in a tie breaker vote, is forced to make fire to get into the final 3. Pretty sure this would be the most epic redemption moment in reality tv history.

Allegedly, Colton turned down an invite for this season. Hypothetically, Penner turns them down too. Do they go to James Clement again? Who do they go to next? Do they keep going all the way down to like Papa Smurf or do they just scrap the theme after like Bruce?

interesting.. i think if Bruce is a no they probably turn it into a "people who deserve a 2nd chance" type deal and bring back Andrew Savage or someone with Skupin and Swan

And in some hilarious ex-Survivor news...


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olymp...dal/56394148/1


No wonder she sucked so hard in Gabon. Her dealer couldn't make it out that far.


Very sorry if this is old news, mods feel free to delete.

I just assumed you always skipped over all of my posts anyway.

Just watched the individual intros for this season

Here's my Dark Horse Winner

Full Tribe Designations + Returnee Pics have been released

Here are the 3 Medevac Returnees on location

Jonathan Penner


Mike Skupin


Russell Swan

what are the odds one of those 3 don't win considering Probst is creaming himself over this season?

Zane is so awesome

FUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKK KK

Do not go on Sucks. I have now most likely been spoiled for the next two seasons. FML.

Will be posting minimally.

Still pretty high. It's weird, though, because with three of them out there, it becomes extremely hard to envision scenarios where they're all gone by F7. All of them are capable of going deep, too, and any of the three winning would be a great story.

Call me crazy, though, but I just don't see any of them making the finals. I mean, this "returning player gets to the end" thing HAS TO end at some point...right? And it doesn't help that there don't appear to be a ton of other strong male targets. I think at least one of them will go deep but ultimately go out in the 5th-7th range.



How do these seasons continue to get spoiled? Are people just coming home and telling their friends/gardeners/total strangers exactly what happened? I don't get it.

Oops

I buy this more than Malcolm.

Nah, I slow down for car wrecks

fair point for sure, but I think we've seen how valuable experience is out there; plus i think the 3 tribe thing makes it highly likely one of them is in the dominant alliance. I don't think you can afford to get rid of any of them early with only 6 tribe members since all are going to be so valuable around camp and in challenges. And unfortunately i think Probst is so transparent and short sighted about what makes for a great season that one definitely wins.




think you nailed it. Pretty sure they come home and tell friends and particularly former cast members and it spreads like wildfire from there. Spencer Duhm from Tocantis tweeted the other day that "survivor community" already knows the winners of the next 2 seasons and it's not a secret. I think it's even more rampant in returning players seasons for this reason. Most people said last season wasn't spoiled. I hope i don't accidentally come across any of the freaking spoilers, hate that they are even out there.

I guess that means anyone who reads this thread will gradually be spoiled on the season too, as various posters show remarkable prescience about who goes deep. As usual.

How is the following something we have to be told?

And staying away from the comments sections on you tube and so forth. Those are givens. What are you people mucking around out in the world for?

I hate you

Jeff Kent has one of the most notorious porn staches in baseball history and was a big focal point back during Barry's crushing years. any average fan who was interested in the game ten years ago should recognize him.

Im guessing the chick in the jeans is the one who pegs him

Id engage him with a boot to the face.

I want somebody to ask him how somebody breaks their ****ing wrist washing a truck.

"Went a little overzealous on the tires eh Jeff?"

Even though I don't think she's going to last long, I'm definitely rooting for Lisa Whelchel. I had such a thing for her back in the day.

My wife and I watched Clue the other day. When she saw him she said, holy crap, It's Mrs. Peacock

We've had enough season recently that have been great for smart players... see Rob, Sophie, Kim. While I like smart players winning, holy **** balls have the seasons (with the exception of SP) been pretty boring. Its time to have some cluster**** craziness that shakes up the game and brings us to some early season levels of backstabbing to help give the game that more predictable feel and less that "I can tune out for the next five episodes" feel