When does Tony's idol expire? anyone know?

LOL Jeff calling out kefra as being impressionable.

LOL Tony. This is a fake idol. Don't worry about it.

Tony has perfected the Russell game. All the moves while keeping the respect.

Enjoyed it a lot so far, but it's starting to look like Tony just rolls over some combination of Trish and Kass in the finals. Ho hum.

That overpowered idol is god awful. How does this **** get approved? It basically is a red carpet into the penultimate tribal council.

At the last tribal before what ends up being finale night. Or, two before the end. If it's a F3, at F6. If a F2, at F5.

such overpowered idol

I'm a bit disappointed that Spencer didn't sniff out that it was going to be a vote for Jeremiah. Woo basically spelled it out for him. It was a clear opportunity for him to show that he is this great player that some are touting.

Ridiculous. GJGE Probst.

I kind of agree with this. On the other hand, if he gets it right and they blindside Woo, they are still down 4-3 and in trouble the following week. So it might not even be worth it

Finale is May 21. So after the 4-30 episode, six will be left. After 5-7, five left. After 5-14, 4 left. That would suggest a final two, with four remaining for the finale.

Probably Spencer/Tasha next in whatever order, then Jefra/Woo, leaving a Trish/Kass/Tony F3. I suppose there's some chance Trish would be fourth and Woo third if Tony thinks Woo would definitely take him to the F2 and Trish would take Kass.

For Jeremiah to get booted this week, with hardly much airtime, it goes to show what a dud he was. At least he dropped this bomb on the show.

Yeah, they're still down but they now you have a much stronger case for a flip. Jefra can be swayed. You always have a chance with Kass. And I feel that Tony is someone capable of blowing things up against himself.

I think in that spot the odds were really high that it was going to be a vote for Jeremiah. I thought it was high enough that Spencer shouldn't even play the idol if he didn't care about being down 5-2.

Even if he was 80% sure it was going to be Jeremiah, its probably still correct to play it on himself. Saving Jeremiah doesn't help a ton, but guaranteeing your own survival one more week in such a volatile game is very valuable.

Couldn't they have pressured Jefra into giving up the target? She's going to hold strong under duress?

Jeremiah could have tried the angle of...I understand you not voting with us, but telling us who the target is doesn't put you at any risk...we will go after someone else with our votes and I promise you are in my F3. You aren't beating Tony or Woo in the finals, and we will take one of them out for all of us right here and now.

Tasha could have approached her and offered F3...maybe probed the possibility of taking out a guy and making a girls alliance.

Spencer could have told her she is in his F3, and she doesn't have to do anything other than tell them who the target is. Tell her that helping them, is going to feel like she's flipping into the bottom of a final 4 deal, but that he and Tasha and Jeremiah will be trying to eliminate each other at F4 and she's pretty much guaranteed F3 if she tells them the target, then flips to them after this vote. Play up the winning threats of Tony and Woo, and make it clear they are the targets. Let Jefra know she isn't flipping just to tie the vote at 4-4.

You need to lay the foundation that you will be voting for Tony if he gets to the end before you are at tribal council. Give those people a chance to think about the fact that they can't beat Tony in the end...maybe someone will decide to move.

edit: if only Spencer had won the immunity necklace...they would have had a much better chance at him picking someone off. It's difficult to play your idol on someone else.

I'd be absolutely shocked if it was a F2. More likely that 4 go to finale night, and there's only 1 vote before the F3.

Survivor turning into BB with the obvious riggage. Such a shame.

Why would that suggest an f2? Because they did it 12 seasons ago?

bitch move by Jeffra to blue ball spencer, tasha and jeremiah

It's Survivor. She doesn't owe them anything. I think she was genuinely going to go with them until Trish did an awesome job of bringing the alliance back together again and making Jefra feel comfortable. In fact, Jefra was nice enough to even let Jeremiah know she had changed her mind when she didnt really have to

Trish showing us once again that her social game is uber elite. If she had Morgan's titties, she would be 2+2ers fan favourite and be #1 in power rankings.

Gigantic fist pump from me when Tony found the secret idol. Only thing that would've made this episode perfect is if Spencer used his idol on Jeremiah and sent Woo packing. Jeremiah went home today and he got zero airtime. Even a dud like Woo had a few minutes of screen time of him falling off a tree. You'd have to be super boring to get absolutely nothing so wasn't sad at the least with Jeremiah going home.

Fantastic season so far, maybe best ever. Only thing that can possibly ruin this season is a final 2 of Jeffra and Woo.

Special HII is overpowered, I don't mind the concept but it should have a short expiry date otherwise it's basically a free ticket to the final 4.

so for say, tasha wins immunity they vote spencer he plays idiol, tasha spencer vote tony, he plays super idol.... do they revote?

I think Spencer's mistake was telling Jeremiah and Tasha that he had an idol. I think there's a good chance that if no one knew he had an idol, he would've kept it in his pocket, since it was so likely that Jeremiah would be the target. The idea of letting Jeremiah die right next to you when he knows you could save him (or the idea of two people knowing you sat on an idol while your own ass got voted out) might seem like an intangible factor, but in a high stress spot it can easily play a role, as can the basic idea that it would be devastating to be eliminated with an idol in your pocket.

If we properly assigned ranges to everyone's behavior at tribal and ran the EV calcs correctly I bet it would come out pretty clearly that the correct move is not to play the idol, but I don't blame Spencer for going a different direction.

The regret of not playing the idol (or playing it for somebody else) and going home certainly has to be the over-riding factor, and clearly he felt he was very much at risk.

From a different perspective, by getting rid of the idol it does free him up to go into a full chaos strategy as he knows he is ****ed. It certainly doesn't help his odds, but they were already pretty low to begin with, and unbeknownst to him got a lot lower when Tony found the super idol.

maybe tony pulling out his idol really did make him move it

shrug