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Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo?

04-14-2014 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutinsider
Its calculated automatically in my poker manager app for droid. Probably not the most accurate way lol.
Do you have a separate stat for std per session? And average hours per session? If you give me those numbers I can tell you if the std/hr is correct.
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
04-14-2014 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
Do you have a separate stat for std per session? And average hours per session? If you give me those numbers I can tell you if the std/hr is correct.


Yes. Each session logs a standard deviation stat in the session. So I have a total of like 335 sessions and average hours per session is 6-7 or so. You get my pm?
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
04-14-2014 , 04:24 PM
2015 hours. Standard deviation is $2165.90 per session. 331 sessions. Average session 6.1 hours. $347/hour st Dev?
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
04-14-2014 , 04:28 PM
It's what I suspected. The calculation is incorrect. They did 2165.90/6.1. They should have done 2165.90/sqrt(6.1). Which gets you to 877/hr std. This is not exact since your sessions are presumably of different lengths but it gets us into the right ball park, unlike the std/hr your app tells you.

That's still really really good relative to your winrate. Like I said, a ratio of std/winrate of hourly of 25 implies some pretty spectacular numbers for PLO. You're doing even better than that.

Last edited by grizy; 04-14-2014 at 04:42 PM.
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
04-14-2014 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
It's what I suspected. The calculation is incorrect. They did 2165.90/6.1. They should have done 2165.90/sqrt(6.1). Which gets you to 877/hr std.


OK. A standard deviation of 900 bucks per hour sounds way more reasonable than 300-400ish. Thanks a lot. I will email the developee and tell him.
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
04-14-2014 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
It's what I suspected. The calculation is incorrect. They did 2165.90/6.1. They should have done 2165.90/sqrt(6.1). Which gets you to 877/hr std. This is not exact since your sessions are presumably of different lengths but it gets us into the right ball park instead of what they have now.

That's still really really good relative to your winrate. Like I said, a ratio of std/winrate of hourly of 25 implies some pretty spectacular numbers for PLO. You're doing even better than that.


Haha. Total function of smallish sample and soft home game! I doubt those numbers could be sustained in a casino. Only problem with soft home games is sometimes you gotta wait a week (or three) to get paid. Conversely its a cashless game so if you lose you don't pay immediately.
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
04-15-2014 , 01:31 PM
Can anyone tell me what a normal stdev is for online msnl games? 2/4 - 3/6nl? I asked in the msnl forum, but they were not helpful. Also how does this compare to msplo?
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
04-15-2014 , 06:53 PM
I think MSNL is about 80 from what I understood, so I would guess it ranges from 65-100.

For PLO I would expect something from 125 to 215. Anything above or below that seems iike an outlier and is probably related to something in the individual's playing style. Those numbers I pull from my personal and friends' DB.
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
06-18-2014 , 10:54 AM
After 2300 hours my hourly deviation now sits roughly 12.9x my observed hourly rate.
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
11-07-2014 , 10:38 AM
3000 hours. 12.8x winrate.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using 2+2 Forums
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
11-07-2014 , 02:06 PM
Swings in live PLO games in games 5-10+ can be so specific to the cast in the games of each session that I don't think you can really come to any kind of conclusion with even a 3000 hour sample which may seem like it's a lot but it's really not.

It's very easy for a 5-10 or 10-20 game to play with the variance of a 25-50 game with the right mix of players in the game.

Really active games will net you like 10-12 hands an hour, meanwhile slower games will maybe net you 20-25 hands an hour. Generally the higher the stakes you go the less hands per hour on average you will typically see since there is often deals being made and higher stakes games don't typically run without a mark or two in the game which already sets the table up for action from the start.

Of course if your playing a very conservative style and buying in for shallower stacks your deviation may be a bit more consistent.

If your playing with the mentality of maximizing your EV in live PLO games, I think you would need a larger sample to really get a sense of your standard deviation but honestly does it really matter to speculate on such trivial things in the first place?

Your results don't really matter and LIVE-PLO is extremely high variance in the short-term that you shouldn't have any expectations of what to expect before you sit down, just play within your means and make correct decisions.
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote
12-30-2016 , 04:53 PM
Can I please have some feedback on my figures from all math prodigies out there?
How does my stats look and can I extract some other useful info/figures from the stats?
Thanks!

Total sessions: 466
Total Hours: 2959
Hourly profit: €59
Profit per hour in BB: 16.1
Std dev hour: €942
Std dev session: €2473
Worst accumulative (max draw down): €20520
Volatility metrics. What's your hourly standard deviation in live plo? Quote

      
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