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Turn spot with combo draw Turn spot with combo draw

09-13-2016 , 08:43 PM
V1 (1.8k) is typical live PLO fish. Can't fold any draws. Occasionally will make bluffs on rivers but mostly straight forward til then. I hero called him in a small pot ($180 river bet) on the river earlier this session with a 6 high flush on a paired board and won against a busted open ender

V2 (900) is here to gamble. Never limps, always raises to 15-20 and always points out that it's to build the pot so we aren't playing for nickels. Will C-bet if he connects with any part of the board and most that he doesn't. Doesn't mind gambling for stacks on the flop.

Hero seen as a winning player with TAG image (despite earlier hero call) sitting on about 2.5k.

5/5 PLO

V1 limps in early pos
V2 does standard raise to 15 in MP
Another player calls
SB folds
Hero calls in Bb with JT67ddss (J6d, T7s)
Flop comes out ( $65) Ks 8d 9d
Hero checks expecting V2 to bet
V1 checks
V2 bets $50
Late pos folds
Hero c/r to $200 (good??) expecting that V2 will ship any K or any draw
V1 cold calls the 200
V2 calls the 200

Turn ($615) is Kc
Hero???



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Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-13-2016 , 09:18 PM
C/f looks good, would consider leading the flop as well if you know some of these villains are prone to bad stackoffs
Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-14-2016 , 06:27 AM
With the reads I would barrel small representing a boat.
Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-17-2016 , 02:51 AM
Is this not as interesting as I thought? OOP with big combo draw when board pairs and initiative has been taken? Is there no standard play? Completely read dependent? Thought this would get a little more discussion


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Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-17-2016 , 10:21 AM
Donk flop, as played check turn, your initiative doesn't really matter as much as you think it does with this action and the cards you hold.
Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-17-2016 , 11:59 AM
C/pot is fine and good
You could lead turn for like 25% here w whole flop cr range
Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-17-2016 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flopdanuts
Is this not as interesting as I thought? OOP with big combo draw when board pairs and initiative has been taken? Is there no standard play? Completely read dependent? Thought this would get a little more discussion


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Against the opponents described this spot is a little easier. Given our hand, what hands do opponents have left that we can beat? Best case scenario, we might be able to fold the nut flush draw and another wrappish hand.. more practically, one of our opponents has trips or better 60%+ of the time
Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-17-2016 , 06:04 PM
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: k89k
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
jd6dts7s16.75% 92,90515,425
ad:ddxy, ak$np:40%, qjt, kq$np: 40%, 98$np:35%37.63% 212,32027,084
ad:ddxy, ak$np:40%, qjt, kq$np:40%, 98$np:35%, 88:35%, 99:35%45.62% 260,24327,083

example sim to show hero is in very poor shape against reasonable ranges
i left out some of the junkier possible draws just to save myself some time, including worse flush draws, but even if give ourselves a bit more c/f still looks pretty good, since we can call it off drawing dead and will have a hard time knowing which river cards are good for us


edit:
a much more optimistic sim below. you can see i have one of the players with some fishy holdings that might not be realistic (like drawing with 23 of diamonds)

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: k89k
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
jd6dts7s23.19% 128,45521,553
ad:ddxy, ak$np:40%, qjt, kq$np: 40%, 98$np:35%, dd!ddd!kk, jt:40%!kk, t7:40%!kk26.28% 146,36622,754
ad:ddxy, ak!kk:40%, aa!aaa, qjt, kq$np:40%, 98$np:35%, 88:35%, 99:35%50.53% 296,19814,205

Last edited by monikrazy; 09-17-2016 at 06:15 PM.
Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-17-2016 , 07:16 PM
Hero checks turn. Both Vs check


River 5d


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Turn spot with combo draw Quote
09-18-2016 , 12:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flopdanuts
Hero checks turn. Both Vs check


River 5d


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Chk and decide. Can't see betting as being any good to get called by worse or fold out better at this point.
Turn spot with combo draw Quote

      
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